Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[pixi] 21/11/2016 12:32

"The markets will be surprised if the Fed minutes reveal anything to detract from what is almost a 100% consensus now, that the Fed will raise rates on 14th December." Tom Tragett, Currency Wars Alert.

[onedayrodders] 21/11/2016 11:52

Courtesy of snurkle (AG Thread)

V Interesting

East West disconnect in price discovery ..

Silver currently trading at £1.32 difference between east and west. Well past the yellow bar 'caution level'

hxxp://didthesystemcollapse.com/

[chipperfrd] 21/11/2016 11:13

Even longer .... the CAGR for gold since 1971 in £ terms is just over +9% pa.

[chipperfrd] 21/11/2016 11:10

To echo your thoughts Hectorp. The trend line for Gold (since 2002) in £ terms is running at +13.41% pa. For silver it is +13.08% pa.
Chip

[goldenshare888] 21/11/2016 11:09

Agree 100% Hectorp, although it is frustrating to say the least at times like these.

I hold/add

:)))

[hectorp] 21/11/2016 10:23

Gold bull markets are often very long term, but can have huge blips and still stay in the bull trend, which started around 2002, in my book it is still intact and will reach over 2000 USD again within a year or two. Silver also, $50 -100 dollars shall be seen! its only a matter of time. Yes I've said this for years and I am still owning silver over the years. And I don't, repeat don't, consider myself a gold bug.
H

[goldenshare888] 21/11/2016 10:14

DT, By the time it is known interest rates not rising,don't you think HOC will be much higher?

I do.

Time to load up is on maximum pessimism!

[dt1010] 21/11/2016 09:32

I think we will see a slam dunk for gold and silver in the next four weeks.
Those prices should then be the lows to shake out speculators.
Hopefully then those in cash can buy in to a good opportunity on PM miner pricing.

Let the volatility do its work in the mean time for scalpers.

[pixi] 21/11/2016 09:25

I am all in cash for a few reasons:

1. Someone is going to dump tonnes of paper gold before the end of this month.
2. The FED are making noises about increasing interest rates.
3. The chartists are not bullish because the trends are down and they see further weakness in the gold price back to $1045 and below to $800.

Like they say: at a time like this, patience is a virtue for PM's investors. The next three or four months is critical.

[dt1010] 21/11/2016 09:17

Too early IMO

wait until we know about rates in Dec

[goldenshare888] 21/11/2016 08:32

Or is the bottom already in DT?

I continue to hold and add in these times......


With an oversold bounce in GOLD back up to $1300+ level, HOC could be back over 300p in my view!


:))

[dt1010] 20/11/2016 21:32

Looking for a bottom in PMs in the short term then before an excellent buying opportunity.

[lauders] 20/11/2016 14:28

I know why I am in HOC. Reduced debt means higher longterm profits, reinstated dividend, potential new finds (existing mines and brown field sites) further adding to the bottom line, troubles around the world & bubble-like equity markets (DOW near its highs). This is more-or-less mirrored in this funds opinion:

Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) (2.5%) (HOC – $3.75 | £2.90 – London Stock Exchange), is a Peruvian based gold and silver miner. The company has one mine in Argentina and three mines in Peru. Hochschild are experts in mining high-grade underground vein systems. The company’s newest mine, Inmaculada in Peru, will be its biggest and most cash flow generative asset. As Inmaculada begins to produce over the coming months, the company will be able to use cash flow from the mine to pay down debt and explore around its sites. We expect excess cash to be distributed to shareholders in the form of a dividend.

Declined a lot since the price quoted, but another area of the text that is of interest:

The reasons to own gold, in our view, have not changed over the past few years and certainly not over the past few months. If anything, they have grown stronger. We believe the fragility of current monetary arrangements is becoming more visible. This will become more evident should the current economic recovery fail to become sustainable and self supporting. If this is the case, global central banks will likely respond by increasing their interventions and not, as is currently discounted by most investors, embarking on a policy towards normalizing monetary policy. Gold should then perform well as investors seek portfolio hedges. Gold is the ultimate savings instrument. It has no counter party risk, is rare, always liquid and has a track record of a few thousand years of maintaining its value.

[hectorp] 20/11/2016 14:02

there is huge symbolic significance to the US coin printing ceasing. This guy on Zerohedge said:
matermaker HenryHall Nov 19, 2016 10:11 PM
I've said for a while. In this nation, one form of money is still in existance. Coins, the only form of currency printed by the federal government. The mint of the United States Government. Those places are fine. You could turn a quarter or dollar back in to silver in less than 24 hours. Tons of print plates still in the vaults. I'd like to see Kennedy on the first to roll out.."

good guy!

[hectorp] 20/11/2016 13:51

chip's post about the US mint ceasing production of Eagles ( also covered on teh silver thread) is very interesting for price discovery.
Also the fellow in charge of the mint production has committed a serious offence.. separately they ran out of eagles LAST November but I don't remember them saying they had closed the printer down.

Yes - I did launch in some more HOC and also CEY fres and FR on Friday ( My FR offer was not however filled so I'll need to try Monday). Also small long positions on silver and gold futures. Of course I am not very positive " short term" ie next week, but I don't wish to miss any rally entirely!

Trump and the USD : will he act as an ultraconservative and patriot, which infers surely a very high value dollar, perhaps 15 to 20% higher than today, or will he or those around them have some sense of the economy? I'd hope so. I'm forgetting this crisis in US and other, Bonds, they don't seem yet to have affected the dollar , we are still in that early post Election working out period.
At this same time, the Euro, could unravel - sending the dollar stratospheric.
IF it is accompanied by or prompts, an Italian Bank crash, all bets are off as it will probably not be ring fenceable.
Worldwide we have actually been in an interlational currency war since well, I think July of 2015, and of course it has assisted PM's. Excessive volatile currency war now and next year, should be positive for PM's yet again IMHO and all who sail in her!
H

[daybreakers] 20/11/2016 11:47

There are mixed views on precious metals.

Half predict fall to lower lows long term. 2016 has had a bear rally.

Half say higher highs long term and this is a short term correction.

Charts point to a steep decline after a short term bear rally

Fundamentals predict PM's to see higher highs.

Which one are you?

[onedayrodders] 20/11/2016 11:44

"Brace For Economic Disruption" SocGen Sees "Sharp Rise In Gold" As India Plans Cap On Cash Holdings

[topicel] 20/11/2016 09:16

Lauders, sadly mate I'm with you and this u-turn in PMs and related stocks and ETFs is not pleasant, is it? You mentioned you were unable or unwilling to trade and though losing thousands will sit it out.

Hindsight eh? As I've just posted, the dollar surge is also tied to the bond yields flying and if Mike Maloney is right this can only lead to inflation and people returning to intrinsic stores of value that means gold and silver.

If the sell now thought is to painful then we all must just hold me wait. The likes of HOC and Fres won't go under, unlike some tiddlers I've been in in the past, so they'll reverse when the time is right and maybe then attack new highs. Interest rate rise last year was a token measure accompanied by the 'promise' of four more, but we will likely just see the one penned in by markets for next month.

last January the move into PMs began, but that was also because China wobbled. Well, if the spat between the two super powers rages on then China could again strike back with an economic curve ball and off PMs go again.

Certainly Italy is also a test for this new euphoria which, let's face it, has only lasted ten days! Hardly a lifetime and like you and me, many will be thinking they should maybe get of the dollar and bond ride for now.

All this waffle leads me to a conclusion that if some more pain is coming then we shouldn't be surprised but safe in the knowledge that it will all turn round again soon. It always does. Fres and Hoc have still multi-bagged in 2016 as I type...

Topicel

[topicel] 20/11/2016 09:01

SG! You said "there are no signs of the dollar losing strength", which does appear to be the case.

But you could have said the same about gold in early July.

The trajectory of the dollar must become a worry for US businesses and officials about now and some form of intervention will be called for or else, as has been pointed out, the cost of exporting will hurt the US expansion plans.

Unless they really are just gonna sell to themselves now they don't need oil...?

Topicel

[dt1010] 20/11/2016 05:49

Good analysis

[lauders] 20/11/2016 04:41

Chip - Here is a piece on the latest COT report and what it means for the market in the author's opinion.


This part mirrors my opinion FWIW!:

This leaves us a bit torn as we have little doubt that both economic policy moving forward and mine supply declines is going to be gold-positive, but in the short-term there is more room for speculative positions and ETF holdings to decline further and put more pressure on the gold price. Also, right now investors across all stripes are still trying to process what a Trump presidency will mean and thus we expect narratives could change quite quickly and violently - it's tough to develop macro views in that type of environment.

Thus, we think it is time to be cautious on gold and silver. We are not selling our positions, but we don't want to get all in until we feel a bit more comfortable that some of the selling has run its course. We will feel that way when we see either lower net speculative long positions, or physical buying strengthen out of India and China. Or the bond market's bloodbath having adverse consequences elsewhere - which of course would change the narrative on gold once again.

Since we like gold long-term and we still believe the macro-economic consequences of Trump's policies will be inflationary and bond-market negative, we still like gold. But we think investors should play it cool and be patient here as we believe there is potentially more downside to come until speculators get washed out of their positions.

[dt1010] 19/11/2016 22:19

At some point in the near future, days or a week I believe, gold and silver will bottom out.

We are coming up to a superb buying opportunity.

Gold might penetrate $1200 to $1180-1190 but it will bounce, I think, from there if that happens.

Silver could get to $16 before bouncing, but I doubt that low.

The time to BUY is close folks. You better bieve it.

All IMHO, DYOR.

[onedayrodders] 19/11/2016 21:13

jt ... what happened to gold and silver when the FED raised rates last December

[saturdaygirl] 19/11/2016 20:42

The Fed Is Unlikely To Raise Rates In December

The Fedwatch tool is projecting an 81.1% probability of a rate hike in December. I have been advocating throughout this year that the FED will not raise rates and I believe that this time too it will not be any different.

The FED will develop cold feet and is likely to postpone its rate hike to March 2017 wanting to know more about the policies of the new President before hiking rates.

If I am proven correct for the umpteenth time on the FED's action, the market will be greatly disappointed and the dollar will fall.

With the above-mentioned uncertainties, it is unlikely that the dollar is going to breakout of the strong overhead resistance.