Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[onedayrodders] 16/11/2016 12:42

Perhaps they have a longer view than 5 minutes

[pixi] 16/11/2016 12:37

I cannot believe the people who piled in first thing this morning and are now sitting on a loss.

[dilbert dogbreadth] 15/11/2016 20:04

How does the arbitrage work then if you can't guarantee delivery on comex but you have to on the sge?

[hectorp] 15/11/2016 19:11

breaktwister,
many of us have known that for 3 or 4 years, cash has been used for settlement in Lieu of metal delivery. Or, we very strongly expect so.

After all, in the United States , where "Conex" is domiciled, it is illegal to refuse an offer of payment for goods or services ( or debt settlement) in USD. It would, be unpatriotic, of course!
- yes it stinks, as does the Comex system itself.

[dt1010] 15/11/2016 18:54

Agree Ds but wouldn't want to bet against it this time

[saturdaygirl] 15/11/2016 18:33

The Stoch chart looking more healthy now and less overbought , this week maybe for the bottom or next ?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[dstorey1] 15/11/2016 18:14

On balance Fed will not raise in Dec.

[dt1010] 15/11/2016 17:41

Let's see if certain pundits are right in saying the Fed will act in Dec
I don't think they will raise rates.
But if they do..PMs will fall and so will the miners.

[pixi] 15/11/2016 17:35

Hec,it would a mistake to go blindly over the top with all guns blazing at the end of November. Please check that the way is clear first otherwise you might get caught up in barbed wire and become a stationery target!

Don't worry, I will assemble all the troops and give everyone a briefing so they all know the score.The ground will be carefully scanned for problems and a route will be chosen to the target to maximise the cover of available dead ground before we become exposed to enemy positions. I will lead the charge, as usual! Lol.

[gaaston] 15/11/2016 17:32

Maybe I am naive but was and am expecting Trump to sort all these things out. Namely, corruption in high places.

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 17:30

breaktwister,

The following article won't make you feel any better about the situation, but at least you will have a clearer picture of what the LBMA, so called 'market', consists of.



Chip

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 16:42

breaktwister

Problem is that all the 'authorities' are banked up on the 'other' side. So COMEX itself apparently allows for the possibility of cash settlement. It is rumored that settlement can also occur in PM ETF shares - but I have absolutely no confirmation of that!

I don't think anyone ought to be under the illusion that the PM market is fair. On the contrary, in so many ways (IMO) it is heavily biased AGAINST PMs. So we, along with the producers we hold, are always up against a loaded system. Just part of the creeping financial repression that we live under.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 16:04

Thanks H, your feedback is appreciated.
Regards & good luck with it all.
Chip

[hectorp] 15/11/2016 16:00

Rodders g afternoon
-thats probably true about the US Shares market but there is also a correlation over the last week of falling PM's and rising USD / Yen. This ratio is a must-follow these days. It used to be the carry trade affected PM prices, perhaps nowadays, Fund Manegers long USD/YEn /short PM's.
However this is short term observation only - it may NOT be correlated.

PS are millions of US Bonds being sold to buy Stocks, thinking Bonds are finhsed for now? I guess that is very plausible!
But is it clever eh!
They should stick 10% in gold when they are flush with cash.

[hectorp] 15/11/2016 15:56

chip - I've always appreciated your comments and your studied observations as you know. You are also pretty selfless in sharing things that took you a lot of time and effort , and it's never taken for granted.
Drip feeding as you were doing with your holdings, still makes perfect sense long term, in my case I am usually cash strapped so am making the most of any pearls of wisdom. Your comments ten days ago about the Dec OI got me very interested and you've come up with them revised again today.
We talked 3 years ago about building silver positions in the good and prospectively promising silver miners, I'll be surprises if 2017-18 are not very good indeed for a raft of mining prices and valuations.

H

[dstorey1] 15/11/2016 15:46

ODR….Better correlation would be with $ Index.

[onedayrodders] 15/11/2016 15:38

I mentioned yesterday there is currently a direct DOW v PM correlation ... DOW has been moving up and PM's down.

Today the DOW moved down from the off and PM's had a little spike.

After last week it's just nice to be able to make some sense of movements for a change

[goldenshare888] 15/11/2016 15:27

PM stocks gone into oversold status, expect buying into year end.

[crosseyed] 15/11/2016 15:10

chip,
Thanks for a very clear description of how this artificial "market" operates.
c

[goldenshare888] 15/11/2016 14:47

The Chinese are probably lapping up all the cheap GOLD from the West! Laughing as they do so no doubt......

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 13:18

H,

I find the irony exquisite!

You took notice of my comments regarding the upcoming 'crunch' over the Dec16 futures contracts - and acted accordingly.

I have been watching the Dec16 contract OI since August and posted about it here recently - but still went ahead and continued with my programmed trading routine which required me to buy on given percentage drops across the swathe of PM stocks that I hold ???

Admittedly, I take a multi-year view with regards to fundamentals on all my stocks. But I still find it illogical that I should not adapt my buy margins to take into account the high probability of downwards price management that was likely to occur over this month because of the dangerous levels of the Dec16 contracts.

I guess I am a bit chastened :-]
Chip

edit: in my own defense I did expect arbitrage to the SGE to prevent or weaken the paper control over the PM market. On that count I guess I was wrong.

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 12:55

Gold premiums have averaged $4.5 to $5 and silver around 50c until the Chinese 'Golden Week' holiday. During that week, without the SGE operating, PM prices dropped considerably. Gold c. -US$60/oz and silver c. -US$2/oz.

Since then the PMs have struggled to get back to previous levels and have, of course, been hit really hard since the US election.

"if it waddles and quacks it's likely to be a duck" !!

That basically is how I see the price control being exerted in order to reduce the near-term problem arising from an initial impossible level of Dec16 Open Interest. And, given the situation on the COMEX, one would have to assume it is probably about twice as bad on the LBMA - but of course, that 'market' is totally opaque.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 15/11/2016 12:45

Meanwhile there is a US$1.22/oz premium for silver on the SGE physical market to the LBMA/COMEX paper-based markets - which gives some measure of the desperate efforts to lower silver, even if arbitrage causes relatively small losses of metal to the East.

On gold the premium is currently US$11.4/oz.

Both of these premiums are much higher than I have seen on average since the summer.

Chip