Hercules Props. Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 19/1/2004 14:07

I expect HPS to be back to 220p soon and well past that level after the interims.Recent Aesop purchase by the company says a lot..imo

[nurdin] 19/1/2004 13:36

Opportunities like these come rarely..guess most small punters are chasing tech stocks and needed some cash...well let them carry on.Have heard the interims will please analysts :o)

[hoobie] 19/1/2004 13:33

heh, couldnt resist it at 189.73p. And nurdin I see no reason either, just
MM's making a bit of cash.

[crawford] 19/1/2004 13:28

I've just bought in twice, at 189.73p and 1.97p. Great buying op.

[nurdin] 19/1/2004 13:18

See absolutely no reason for the fall...a great buying opportunity imho
I am back in again...

[40plus] 19/1/2004 13:18

Just used the remaining cash in my ISA account to pick up some more at 1.89

Think this is just a MM shake to get stock or could be short term rotation of holders into Tech Stocks which seem sharply up today . . .

Either way I'm accumulating until the story changes . . .

[hoobie] 19/1/2004 13:07

big drop 10%, whats up?

lots of small scale selling too?

[crawford] 19/1/2004 11:57

Good point Rivaldo, I was hoping for a trading update soon, but I suppose if the results are going to be inline there is no point.

The MM's in the past have accumulated stock at this level so they could easily start the buying again by a quick mark up of the stock. We'll see...

[rivaldo] 19/1/2004 11:21

So results are on 16th February.

Last year at this time HPS issued a trading statement noting that the turnaround was taking longer than expected at Deacon and Harmon Healy and profits would be below expectations.

This year there's no such warning, and indeed we're told there will be presentations to analysts - note there were no such presentations advertised last year.

If I was a betting man, I'd say that interims will come in slightly better than forecast, maybe 5%-10% better, given that if they were materially better than expectations HPS would probably say so. If so, I'm hoping that re-rating of the company, following the realisation that HPS had now successfully turned around, may bring a quick 30%-50% rise. After all, the current year P/E to June 2004 is less than 6 at present!

[crawford] 19/1/2004 09:14

Selling continues, but all small quantities. The big trades tend to be buys (but very few).
Would need to bounce from 203p...

[welsheagle] 19/1/2004 08:08

RNS Number:3480U
Hercules Property Services PLC
19 January 2004

19th January 2004
Hercules Property Services plc

Date of interim results

Hercules Property Services plc, the property insurance and services group, will
announce interim results for the six months ended 31st December 2003 on 16th
February 2004.

For details of the analyst presentation and for further information:

Richard Sunderland, mj2 ltd: 020 7491 7776

Notes to Editors
Hercules is a London listed property and insurance services company with a
capitalisation of approximately #40 million. It provides a comprehensive range
of specialised services to the commercial and residential property sectors. It
brings together established, proven businesses to provide clients with a
fast-track to a complete range of property services combined with all the costs
savings that this unique synergy affords.

For the full year ended 30th June 2003, the company reported a profit of #8.4
million on a turnover of #41.7 million. Basic and adjusted basic earnings per
share were 9.7p and 32.6p respectively. The company paid a full year dividend of
8.0p.

The company has nine subsidiaries which operate within the following divisions:

Property Insurance Services: The insurance division accounts for approximately
40% of Hercules' revenue. All three of the Group's insurance intermediary
businesses operate in the property market. The largest, Farr (now incorporating
D.O.R.), accounts for approximately 50% of the British Housing Association
property insurance market. Cadogan Insurance Services specialises in insurance
for medium to large property and property management companies. Lastly Deacon
provides insurance services to the residential and secondary commercial property
sectors and caters for circa 20% of the non-tied residential apartment blocks in
Britain.

Commercial Property Services: This division is substantially made up of Dunlop
Heywood Lorenz, which is based in Manchester and London. It offers agency,
management, investment, planning, rating, building surveying, valuing and other
professional property advisory services. Harman Healy Commercial also in this
division specialises in commercial property auctions.

Residential Property Services: Hercules' residential division includes blocks of
flats property management and residential property auctions. The largest, Gross
Fine operates in London and is one of the UK's premier residential property
managers. Wood Simmonds Management, based in North London, also manages blocks
of flats in London but covers the broader geographical range of the South East
of England as well. Simmonds & Partner is building surveying firm offering
professional advice to Group and external clients. The division also includes
Harman Healy Residential, a residential property auctioneer.



This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END
NORILFFRLTIRLIS

[meic] 17/1/2004 15:17

Let's hope so-don't think there will be much movement in the next couple of weeks then.Worth noting though that general market conditions are good,so a quick jump upwards could easily happen if results(especially at Deacon) show continued improvement,as opposed to a stall.I would be delighted with £4

Good luck.

[rivaldo] 16/1/2004 22:07

Fair enough Simon, but that's a pretty big range!

HPS are forecast to make 35.6p EPS to June 2004. IMO we can assume the first half was at the worst OK or something would have been said at the AGM. So let's assume they only made 30p EPS this year - that would still leave HPS on a current year P/E of just 7, without even accounting for improved trading next year. So downside to me looks like max of, say, 20%.

Fortunately I'm with you in thinking this is unlikely and that £4 is achievable following the anticipated good results.

[simonevans] 16/1/2004 21:51

The downside is not minimal imo. Poor trading would bring the price down to £1-1.50ish, but I don't think this is likely. Let's hope we hit £4 by mid year.

[flagon] 16/1/2004 20:13

Rivaldo - agree.


Good luck,


Flagon

[rivaldo] 16/1/2004 15:59

And another trickle of sells. Can't see any reason for it.

A trading statement is probably only another couple of weeks or so away, and all the indications are that trading is good to very good. Taking profits is all very well, but when HPS is on a P/E of just above 5 the upside is large and obvious and the downside is surely minimal.

But WDIK.

[crawford] 16/1/2004 14:04

25000 buy supporting HPS

[meic] 14/1/2004 21:03

another trickle of sells again today...........

[rivaldo] 13/1/2004 12:19

Should be a trading statement in early February (last year was 6th Feb, with interims on 17th Feb). Looking forward to it.

DJ, I tend to disagree about AESOPs. For example, the Hercules AESOP has been regular purchasers on the way up, but was only very occasional buyers at the top prior to the big fall. Of course, there's no way the AESOP manager should be aware of how the company is doing....but he usually has plenty of time to satisfy the issuing needs of the AESOP, so can try to time the purchases advantageously.

I'm not saying it's as good a signal as a straightforward director buy (and even that is often dodgy!), but IMO you don't often find AESOPs plunging in unnecessarily. Anyway, I'm hoping the forthcoming RNS's will be the spark for HPS' re-rating.

[simonevans] 12/1/2004 19:21

Interesting - p/e of 5 is a tad on the low side for this quality co. If they can demonstrate that they are getting their balance sheet into shape we should see a strong re-rating imo.

[crawford] 12/1/2004 09:08

Investec Securities:

HPS profit forecast for year ending June-06 is 43.31p.

[diogenesj] 09/1/2004 18:15

Must say I never attach any importance to Aesop purchases. They have share award schemes, and have to buy shares to meet them. They're buying with other people's money (ours) and don't pay the same attention. Eventually the Aesop shares will be given to employees, who will sell them.

[penpont] 09/1/2004 15:10

I too would prefer straight buying from their own wallets, but unfortunately this can't be relied on either as a nod and wink that everythings going to work out.

Prefer just to stick with the forecasts and recent statements.

[rivaldo] 09/1/2004 14:50

Tiltonboy, can't argue - the directors own only around 70k shares between them (though I haven't got details of their options packages handy). But as crawford says, with results due in a month they are in a closed period. And besides, the AESOP has been a regular buyer for a while now, so from the directors' point of view why should they buy shares if the AESOP is doing it for them - just to please a few punters?

I agree direct purchases would register better - but the share price has tripled from its lows with repeated buying from the AESOP, so the fact that the AESOP continues to buy looks as good a buy signal as any to me.

[tiltonboy] 09/1/2004 14:17

crawford,

They haven't been in a closed period for the last year.

tiltonboy