Hercules Props. Share Discussion Threads

[tonyx] 20/1/2004 13:13

Was waiting for sub 200p to buy, but this is close enough!

[cockneyrebel] 20/1/2004 13:08

Well the AESOP's buying and it needn't - can only presume they don't expect a 202p opportunity again or why else buy now?

CR

[nurdin] 20/1/2004 13:00

Explains that 40k trade Rivaldo :o)

[rivaldo] 20/1/2004 12:58

Welcome CR - nice timing as usual!

Particularly with another AESOP purchase announced today - this is ridiculous. If these purchases aren't a signal to the market I don't know what is:



Date of Transaction: 20 January 2004
Transaction: Purchase of Ordinary Shares
Number of Ordinary Shares Purchased: 40,000
Price per Ordinary Share: 202p

Following the Transaction, the trustee of the AESOP holds a total of 404,100
Ordinary Shares in Hercules representing approximately 2.22 per cent. of the
Company's issued share capital. Under paragraph 2 of Schedule 13 to the
Companies Act 1985 (the 'Act'), the executive directors are deemed to be
interested in these shares for the purposes of section 324 of the Act.

[flagon] 20/1/2004 12:56

Topped up also myself. Now sitting on quite a large amount.

I see that the AESOP also purchased some additional 40,000 shares today.

I await the results on the 16th with interest !!


Good luck,


Flagon

[nurdin] 20/1/2004 12:52

Aha..smart move CR :o) Sentiment will change after results no doubt...

[cockneyrebel] 20/1/2004 12:42

Well I went long yesterday. Seems to me that this is pretty illiquid and it only takes a small rake of sells to move the price down - dragging in more sellers who follow the crowd.

Seemes to do that often in regular little dip-lets over a period but recovers well usually.

My guess is the buyers will increase as the results approach - but its a guess based on what's happened in the past only.

CR

[rivaldo] 20/1/2004 11:54

Agreed nurdin, certainly not on the scale they have in the last year. Looks like that seller is perhaps running out of stock - a 40k and a 10k have gone through, not sure from a quick glance whether buys or sells, but the price is holding up with continued smaller buying.

[nurdin] 20/1/2004 10:42

Dont honestly think they would be buying for AESOP if the results or the outlook statement werent going to be good...

[rivaldo] 20/1/2004 10:40

Not long till 16th February! Perhaps the seller has finished now - it seems that some nice small buying has pushed the price back up. Anyway, IMO the absence of trading info in the notice of results can only mean that results will be as good as or better than expectations. To fail to warn in the current climate is considered a crime against the market gods.

Hoping for a steady climb now until the results.

[nurdin] 20/1/2004 08:32

They are in closed period now...so announcements until the interims

[crawford] 20/1/2004 08:30

penpoint,
one thing worth noting is that unlike last year, the company sees no need for a trading update. That speaks louder than the analysts presentation they are having.
From my sources, a trading update is not going to occur as there is no need for one :-)

[nurdin] 20/1/2004 08:29

Buyers coming in strongly now...should see a mark up soon..

[simonevans] 19/1/2004 22:07

Rivaldo - I don't agree on management having a poor track record I'm afraid. The business is still performing very well and was started from virtually nothing less than 10 years ago. Their approach is sound, but the profit warnings have clobbered the shares. The analyst presentation planned is the first time that I can remember a Lipman co. doing this - I suspect that they are frustrated with the share price and want to get some more institutional support.

I personally think that management should now consider separating the insurance business with the rest through a demerger, even though this could cost a couple of £m in transaction costs. I think that the rating for each part of the business would be substantially higher than now on a purer valn. Unfortunately, I don't think this is likely.

[diogenesj] 19/1/2004 20:49

I'm with DoQ on this: the share price seems to be telling us that 'the market' doesn't believe the forecasts. The market is usually (not always) right. I hope it's wrong this time, but I'm inclined to hold off until the evidence is clearer, even if that means buying at a much higher price.

Good luck to holders: may join you later. :-)

[nurdin] 19/1/2004 20:42

Well I am back in again....I dont expect any warnings,Deacons is doing exteremely well now,the company has been buying shares for its employees and all divisions are firing on all cylinders from what I gather.Interims could be the turning point for HPS and yes I do expect a rerating to follow if the noises they make are as positive as I expect them to be...relative strength is not good but will not stay like that for ever DoQ :o)

PS Hope you guys have your cheque books out for SGI...or else :o)

[penpont] 19/1/2004 20:32

Doq: have to say I can understand your doubts, and I heard the same warnings today even as I pressed the 'BUY' button to aquire another 1000 shares at 197p!

I suppose ultimately the reason I did this was because while I do understand the sentiment you express, I can't agree that there are 'cheaper and better value' shares out there at present... Better quality and perhaps better value, no doubt, but at one stage today HPS were on offer at a PE of under 5 for next year...now thats what I call cheap!

Investec's latest forecast, unchanged and dated only last Thurs , plus the fact they admitted to having serious egg on their faces after the previous warning and should therefore want to be ultra careful this time, gives me some confidence, as do the points mentioned in rivaldos post above.

Nothing is certain however, and I dont take either the absence of a warning at this stage, nor the fact that they're holding a presentation (these, to my knowledge, are routine following results, and they held one after last years interims after all...)as meaning much.

I suppose it comes down to risk/reward, as with any investment, and that is what appeals to me about HPS, especially at these levels.

[doubleorquits] 19/1/2004 20:11

rivaldo,

Yep, made a good profit on FSJ from around 130p but looking back they have done better than I imagined. Nearly bought back at 258p not so long back but bought more CKN instead...we'll see!

As for your question about HPS, it is more about looking for a higher PE in a way. On a PE of about 7 or 8 ish they could prove to be good value - maybe results will have proved they are on the mend and confidence is coming back. They could then be valued at anything up to a PE of 12 if things continue to improve (although it is going to take time) and there is a lot of upside from there. Currently they are on a PE of 5.6 by my reckoning and that makes them a builder or a warning. As I said, happy to be wrong again but there are still better shares around IMO - even if one sees risk associated with them as well -but in all those cases (i.e. my shares) relative strength is pretty impressive as well.

[rivaldo] 19/1/2004 19:49

Ah, but DOQ, how low do they have to go before they're in your portfolio?!

HPS' past record isn't good. But often the best opportunuities come from turnaround stories. Have a look at all the announcements since Feb 2003's interims, and the language is pretty restrained but confident, the AESOP has bought in lots of shares, the sector is still performing well, and forecasts P/E's in particular are very undemanding given that HPS achieved 32.6p EPS to June 2003.

The management at FSJ have delvered and earned investors' trust (why on earth are you out DOQ - hope you made a good profit anyway). But HPS' directors presumably know they have to do the same, and the lack of any warning in today's results notice (and the promise of presentations to analysts) indicates to me that these are going to be solid and perhaps very good results.

I could always be wrong though!

[doubleorquits] 19/1/2004 19:35

As a non-holder I watch and still don't have the courage to invest my money here. The PE screams out at me but those screams are echoed each time by a louder warning signal. I do not "trust" the management enough to take the plunge and agree with Dupree's sentiments without the hurt of nursing losses. I simply believe there are cheaper and better value shares out there with a lower risk (FSJ, rivaldo is one although I no longer hold this one either). With those shares I am confident the brokers are under-estimating but with these I can't convince myself it's not the other way.

Good luck to holders and feel free to shoot me down when I'm proved wrong. No malicious intentions, just an attempt at objectivity. And the reason for my post is - yes - they remain on my watchlist!

[simonevans] 19/1/2004 19:28

Good news today. You don't normally get an analysts presentation if the results are bad. Very odd price drop in the circumstances.

[rivaldo] 19/1/2004 19:10

Dupree, I sympathise if you're still loss-making on HPS.

But to me that's missing the point of investing in HPS at this particular time. After all, with that way of thinking who would have bought HPS when it dropped to 70p and there was no silver lining in sight. I bought on the up when things were pretty obviously on the turn and am now well in profit, but on fundamentals, prospects and on the most recent statements from the company (plus continual AESOP purchases) HPS remains very cheap IMO.

As you say, it takes the City a while to forgive. But with another good set of results the re-rating will continue (remember the shares have almost tripled from their low - plenty of profits to take). On a forward P/E of less than 5, it won't take much for the shares to double from here.

[sharedoc] 19/1/2004 15:53

I could'nt resist but had to pay 200p for 4K shares. I wasnt around when they were 190p to buy (What a bargin !!) - well done to all those that managed to get in at that price. This is a dead cert. to rise back to 240p and beyond. Don't you just love it when you know you've got one over on the M.M's

[hoobie] 19/1/2004 14:10

no doubt, this will hit 200 again over the next day or two. Perhaps even this afternoon, we shall see.