Henderson Pr Share Discussion Threads

[jaws6] 18/6/2012 21:39

Alan
HPEQ closed good.
yes will try to go for AGM.

[alanji] 18/6/2012 15:37

jaws - I would love to be going but not possible I am afraid. Are you going?

[jaws6] 18/6/2012 14:58

Alan
Tks for info.
Are you going to agm ?

[alanji] 18/6/2012 12:26

Yes, the agm is on Thursday and there should be some good news - anyone going? I thought it might be an announcement of a return of capital but I think it would have to be in fairly general terms as details would require an rns - unless a rns is issued on Thursday morning? Anyway I have no doubt a return of capital will be made in the very near future.

Looking back at what happened with the previous distribution last year. That was by way of a tender for shares. 17.5% could be tendered at a price equal to 95% of nav. Prior to the announcement the share price was 279p and the tender price ended up as 377p. On the day of the announcement the share price increased to 307.5p and kept rising to 320.5 at the ex-tender date. So, the discount narrowed from 26% of the last announced nav to 14.7% on the day. Surprisingly, the price did not immediately fall following the ex-tender date. 95% of the current, adjusted, nav would imply a tender price of 398p.


With regard to the new factsheet, what is very encouraging is that all but one (the smallest one) of the limited partnerships increased in value from April to May.

Taking into account the Lifeways disposal last week nav is 419pps, of which cash is 133p.

At the Friday closing offer of 323p this is a discount to nav of 23% - not at all bad. However, taking the net cash off the nav and the offer price, means the discount on non cash assets is 34%

After taking into account the incentive fee (calculated at Dec 2012) non cash assets would have to fall by 30% before taking a loss on the current price of 323. Realisation at the current nav would entail a profit of 24% - a fall of 10% would give a profit of 16% and a 20% fall 8% profit. Of course, the proceeds may well exceed the current nav - realisations up to now have exceeded the previous nav by over 10% and if notemachine were to float..........dream on!
Notemachine is the largest underlying investment - at the Dec valuation of £21.5m it would represent nearly half of the remaining non cash assets. Details of the 10 largest underlying investments are in the 2011 accounts.

[jaws6] 18/6/2012 09:17

AGM this week ?

[jaws6] 15/6/2012 15:52

New Monthly Factsheet as at 31 May 2012 RNS out

[jaws6] 15/6/2012 10:49

dave
Thanks.
use to have GHE , not any more. will try to look later.

[davebowler] 15/6/2012 10:39

GHE Gresham -I bought too soon though.

[badtime] 15/6/2012 10:34

bought a few more earlier in the week and added again

[jaws6] 14/6/2012 13:59

davebowler
Tks for broker note update.I have bought few more
EDIT
Which another pe you like ,only if you got them or like them.Tks.

[spectoacc] 14/6/2012 13:55

419p is the simple calc, not sure Liberum get any credit for that! The question is - the NAV is the manager's estimate of likely realisation value, so what value has he ascribed to Rutland I (ie Notestation) and when will that get sold?

(Per above, on IB's previous form, I suspect we're much more likely to be pleasantly than unpleasantly surprised, and I'm quite happy taking the 419p figure).

[davebowler] 14/6/2012 13:14

Liberum;

Henderson Private Equity Investment Trust (HPEQ / NR / 319.5p) – Realisation of Lifeways

Highlights:

n F&C Private Equity trust had already beaten them to it, but yesterday HPEQ also announced the realisation of Lifeways Community Care, an investment which it held through its LP interest in August Equity Partners I.

n The fund will receive c.£9.5m, which represents a £1.7m (22%) uplift to the £7.8m carrying value as at May 2012.



Liberum View:

n The manager appears to be making good progress in realising value from the portfolio and having recently reported a 1.8% increase in NAV during May, this is another positive for shareholders. Adjusting for the realised gain on disposal, we estimate the NAV per share to be 419p against which the shares trade at a 23.8% discount.

[badtime] 13/6/2012 22:10

Thanx for all the info today chaps...picked some more up b4 the rns

[jaws6] 13/6/2012 13:02

Pl do post if new broker note out after today's news.
Tks.

[spectoacc] 13/6/2012 12:20

Thanks @Alan. Nice to see Ian Barrass having under-promised and over-delivered again.

[jaws6] 13/6/2012 11:11

Alan
Tks, good one.

[alanji] 13/6/2012 11:07

And there it is:

The Company announces that August Equity LLP has completed the sale of Lifeways
Community Care Limited (`Lifeways'), an investment held in August Equity
Partners I.

As a result, as a founding investor in August Equity Partners I, the Company
will receive circa GBP9.5 million in cash proceeds which includes the Company's
share of carried interest. These cash proceeds are expected to be received over
the next few days and will result in an uplift of approximately GBP1.7 million
against the Company's most recently reported (31 May 2012) net asset value.

revised nav is 419.4

[alanji] 13/6/2012 10:46

Specto I admit I did not include the monthly fee as it was pretty minimal and accrued in the May nav.
"In February 2012 the fixed monthly fee was reviewed taking into account the Manager's workload and the status of the realisation of the portfolio at that time, it was agreed that the fixed monthly fee structure remained appropriate and would continue to be reviewed on a regular basis."

I have just spoken to the Co and the rns is imminent. I am told there will be more news at the agm next week.

Also with regard to timing, it is the final liquidation that will slip into 2013 but the intention is that most proceeds will be returned to shareholders this year.

[badtime] 13/6/2012 09:36

I agree re not being worried...generally i have felt quite comfortable with the way things have been run...sky re 2013...i was taking the worst possible scenario and saying end of 2013 which would b 18 months...but hey i think saying halfway thru like u have is very fair

[spectoacc] 13/6/2012 09:27

Thanks @Alan.

One thing you may have missed - the £50k/month payment to the manager? Though this must be up for review as it went from £70k to £50k but then to be reviewed after 24 months if company hadn't wound up yet.

[alanji] 13/6/2012 09:05

Took me ages to work out the incentive fee and I had got it slightly wrong. Think I have got it now.
Hurdle at 31/12 was £46.656m
already returned £12.492
Balance £33.163 equivalent to 213pps. But this needs to be increased by 8% pa from 31/12. So, assuming 31 December 2013 for the return the hurdle would be 230p and the maximum would be reached at 428p (assuming the maximum of £2.8529 is not indexed).
Using the 31 May nav and assuming cash proceeds of £10.3m (£7.7 increased by 33.6% - the same as F&C) would give net cash of 137.5pps so you are buying non cash assets of 271p for 175p (at 313p sp). After the incentive fee this would reduce the proceeds of a realisation at nav to 391p, giving a profit of 25% at 313p. If non cash assets were to fall 10% the profit would be 17%, a 20 % fall would give a profit of 17%, a 20 % fall 9% and it would need a 32% fall before into a loss. Figures ignore liquidation costs but it is a very 'clean' company.

I, too, noticed the discrepancy between the interview and the announcement but was not unduly worried and events are justifying the statements made.

[skyship] 13/6/2012 06:59

Badtime - his concern was the timing. Here is the relevant piece from the Annual Statement. I don't think I'm being unduly optimistic to believe that liquidation by Jun'13 is a reasonable inference from "will continue into 2013":
==========================================================
Realisation Strategy

On 27 September 2010 the Company's Shareholders voted decisively in favour of
the Realisation

Strategy recommended to them by the Board with the full support of the
Portfolio Manager. Whilst no fixed timeframe was stipulated for the disposal
programme, the Board's expectation was that it would be materially complete in
two years, namely around September 2012. Although considerable progress has
been made with execution of the strategy, it now seems likely that the disposal
programme will continue into 2013 as the Portfolio Manager endeavours to strike
the right balance between delivering value from the Company's investments and
returning cash to Shareholders as quickly as possible.
==========================================================

[eeza] 12/6/2012 23:15

SG's post earlier today



simon gordon
11 Jun'12 - 20:54 - 17955 of 17988


HPEQ - I bought some then sold not long after. I did not like the discrepancy between the video interview and the Prelims on the 27th April.

[badtime] 12/6/2012 22:30

SKY..i c SG sold his holding because of som discrepancy re the video...he mentioned it on SHA this morning...u might not find it amongst all the copy n paste stuff...do u know what that was?