Hend.Fledge.Tst Share Discussion Threads

[squirrel888] 30/8/2012 13:51

Praipus,

I have been rather in the Velvetide camp where trading used to be quite enjoyable but that was over a decade ago now. I have made investments since the 2008 crash and most came good but aside from the odd one I did not venture back in.

I may well have been very badly burned by my PMK investment - time still ticks for that one but I doubt very much that shorters are in the same position as me today - they should have profited handsomely from that disaster. However it could turn a corner.

I've dabbled with FTSE100 companies but again I refuse to stay in very long (more than a year or so) because of the macro-economics. If there's a divi paid then it's a bonus on top of any profits but it certainly hasn't changed my life at all.

Now I realise it's a mugs game - trading that is. Maybe one or two trades every couple of months now and I never re-invest - usually sit on the sidelines and wait.

I would say that once in a while every PI can get lucky - really lucky and get a multi-bag rise but one must ask oneself if it's a real valuation ever?

I am now actually favouring the work ethic once again - I've worked since I was 13yrs old (I've had a couple of years off in my working life-time) and I am now back in the throws of working and actually enjoying it.

Trading is not something I shall risk the majority of my cash on right now. The markets aren't free and far from fair. Fundamentals mean nothing.

THIS investor is now ultra-cautious. My cash may get devalued over time but I do wonder whether it might be at a slower pace than watching my portfolio get diseminated and be totally helpless about it - whether its the fault of computers or the lack of regulation. I know I can't win.

[praipus] 30/8/2012 13:24

velvetide, agreed interesting post, what time frame is "short to medium term" for you? (i.e. 5 seconds, 5 minutes, hours, days, months or 3/4 months)

Is it possible that the markets have always been caotically random and chart patterns have just been an illusion? A combination of "Halo effect" on seeing the pattern and "Confirmation Bias" when the market randomly went your way?

Just thoughts.

[bamboo2] 30/8/2012 11:06

squirrel888, Thanks for posting this, very interesting.

[velvetide] 28/8/2012 09:24

The aspect of hft which is being overlooked is that I as a private would read the signals from the charts to verify my reasoning to buy or sell a share.

As the short to medium term charts are now merely a reflection of computer generated patterns, probability tricks, etc, there is now no verifying information available.

This verification is of course necessary due to the deficit of information a private investor has over the city. A private investor's purchase against the trend is rarely a winning trade.

Hence the private investor is gradually being driven away from short and medium terms trading and probably therefore away from trading all together (it has been drummed into us that buy and hold is dead - which is probably true for a majority of investments.

That is the case for me, I will now probably select a handful of attractive long term opportunities to invest in and check them once a year.


Last year I probably made 10 to 20 trades every day, now I don't trade at all. One of the reasons I initially stopped was because I was not able to easily get sell quotes into upward spikes.

This was on top of an increasing difficulty of getting any quote at all as the hft information flood into my level 2 was preventing me getting quotes from my market maker (my broadband is very fast) - often it would take a minute or longer to get a uk buy or sell quote. A bit of a paradox considering the arguments put in favour of hft - instead - floods of liquidity preventing trading at all...or perhaps only allowing me to trade when it suits them?

Only being allowed to trade selectively against a chaotic backdrop is not for the rational.

So its goodbye from me, rather sadly, I did enjoy it a lot once.

[praipus] 23/8/2012 08:42

Thanks Mozy123 chart added to the Soros dedicated post 1.

[praipus] 22/8/2012 16:15

Thanks Mozy123 any chance you could disclose your source or provide a link to the SEC notification or the RNS? TIA.

[mozy123] 21/8/2012 16:08

Soros Fund Management bought some Man U Stock

Soros Fund Management bought 3,114,588 Class A shares in the team, according to the regulatory filing.

[praipus] 20/8/2012 11:36

Soros Fund Management reducing PON holding/CFD

[praipus] 15/8/2012 19:47

Odey Asset Management

brought to my attention by contrarian2investor on the SHA thread.

Interview with Crispin Odey



Known holdings: LOOK, STVG, PRX, RKH, XCH , PDG, CIRC, EMG, PLUS, TUNG, JPJ, IWG

[praipus] 08/8/2012 15:48

Hi Squirrel888,

Great idea for a thread do you trade using a system or algorithm?

________________________________________________________

Contrarian2investor posted this on the SHA thread

Algorithmic Trading


"Over 70% of trades in US are algorithmic trades"

"Average holding time is 22 seconds"!!

[squirrel888] 06/8/2012 08:09

All it would take is for PI's/Retail Investors to wake up to the fact that "stop losses" are being used as a weapon against them. Don't use stop losses and set high sell limits. It really is that simple.

Why let "computers" steal off us?

[jon827] 04/8/2012 17:28

Will he be in the next Market Wizards book?

[praipus] 25/7/2012 08:54

Soros also at Psion PON RNS from June

[praipus] 25/7/2012 08:47

Soros buying JSG

[praipus] 19/6/2012 13:57

Soros buying 9.2% of MOSB

[praipus] 19/6/2012 13:39

KWL subject to a revised offer (Soros sold out in May)

[praipus] 12/3/2012 16:58

David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital post_3 increasing CNE holding to 3.06%

[jon827] 07/3/2012 18:19

lol, i will :)

[praipus] 07/3/2012 18:17

Probably best to ring the company secretary anything I say would be a guess.

[jon827] 07/3/2012 18:11

like Norges bank did yesterday on BG. they filled it in correctly. is there a reason they don't or is it just laziness :)

[jon827] 07/3/2012 18:06

in the 'Number of Shares' column on the 'after the transaction' side, id show you but jing isn't working!

i notice sometimes they put N/A sometimes they leave it blank and sometimes they put the new amount of shares they have bought

[praipus] 07/3/2012 17:52

Looks like a purchase to me.

Looks ok to me which bit havent they filled in?

[jon827] 07/3/2012 17:45

sanks Praipus, so how do they get more voting rights with out buying more shares? or have they bought more shares and just not bothered to fill the form in properly?