Headlam Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2023 22:25

That's how the market received it for sure.

I've known this business since 1992, peak to trough cycle earnings fall very
approx around 50%, but that's in a standard recession, ATM we appear to be at stall speed rather than a sharp downturn.

[creditcrunchies] 25/5/2023 22:20

There's a good review of this stock by Mr Scott from SCVR report. Basically hinting this is veiled profit warning and the brokers that have the closest access to their financial position have downgraded the stock hence the large drop. On the flip side it could attract value investors at these lower levels.

[creditcrunchies] 25/5/2023 22:08

There's a couple of metrics I look at that concern me though. The cash position has dropped from 61.2 million in 2021 to 2.10 million in 2022. The dividend cover is forecast at 1.69x for 2023, 1.81x for 2024. Net debt has shot up to 35.9 million. Current divi yield of 6.7%. They've just given a profit warning, actually they hinted a warning so it's all a bit murky. They run the risk of not maintaining their dividend if we get a shock trading update next quarter.

[creditcrunchies] 25/5/2023 20:55

I think anything below 230p is worth tucking away in the back pocket for a decent bounce further down the line.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2023 19:03

Usually gets near £2 during downturns, may may take another disappointing update, no guarantees that happens.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 25/5/2023 18:24

That share buyback doesn't look quite so smart now.

[creditcrunchies] 25/5/2023 18:01

Looks like one of those medium term recovery stock now

[tole] 25/5/2023 15:57

Big sell yesterday - 334,254 clearly someone knew what was coming.

[rimmy2000] 14/5/2023 20:31

taking all sales and contacts from HEAD?

[tomps2] 08/3/2023 14:40

Headlam Group (HEAD) Full Year 2022 results presentation - March 2023

Headlam Group’s Chief Executive, Chris Payne, presents full year results for the year ended 31 December 2022 and an update on current trading, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

or listen to the podcast here:

[1tx] 08/3/2023 09:51

Decent results in a tough market.Getting them out 9 weeks from yearend shows how well run the company is.Whilst I expect we are unlikely to see any upturn over 2023 Headlam seems inexpensive......

[aublune] 27/2/2023 17:57

thankx jeffian

[jeffian] 19/1/2023 19:55

There was a very clear and confident update by CEO Chris Payne on the Investormeet website. Worth watching if interested (free to register)

[castleford tiger] 28/12/2022 12:01

I was told LIKE have a strong team.
The numbers looked ok but shares are down 2/3rds since launch.

Not done any background on this?

[rimmy2000] 01/12/2022 21:06

Castleford, do you have a view on LIKE and if HEAD are at risk of losing signigifanct market shre to the new incumbent rival hxxps://www.investegate.co.uk/likewise-group-plc--like-/rns/trading-update/202212010700041706I/

[nickycraigflooring] 24/11/2022 18:53

Stronger than their new rivals

[castleford tiger] 24/11/2022 11:38

jeffian

by any measure the company is not expensive.

There maybe more dips but i feel the Government and Bank are talking us into a dip.
On the ground i see things differently.

Prices are starting to fall inc transport and energy costs.
Usage was down 35% in October and 25% so far in November.

Jo public is far from skint.

tiger

Essential

they actually say earnings will be UP.
The Company, therefore, now expects underlying profitability for the year to remain ahead of 2021

[essentialinvestor] 24/11/2022 11:23

Would be surprised if today represents the low in any earnings downgrade cycle.

[jeffian] 24/11/2022 10:50

Aye, CT, I "caught the dip" on your other strong punt, Tandem, and then it dipped some (a lot!) more. I've been a very long-term holder here and I expect I'll hang on forever, but I wouldn't like to bet that this dip is over. Good luck to you.

[castleford tiger] 24/11/2022 10:40

caught the dip this morning and bought 3 more chunks.

very happy buying at this level
A strong company.

tiger

[jeffian] 24/11/2022 10:34

I suspect I'm displaying my age and Old Fart credentials but am I supposed to feel better about a profit warning because of the associated "ESG" malarkey? I would rather they focused on the day job of selling more carpets.

[pireric] 28/10/2022 09:15

Not sure it makes sense for Headlam to trade down in sympathy with Likewise today:

- Likewise's revenues are trading strongly and slightly ahead of expectations suggesting a good overall demand environment at least for now. The future is uncertain but is that a surprise to anyone
- They've been very acquisitive, are growing very quickly, and are seeing cost inflation pressuring their margins. Headlam is not comparable in that respect

This remains very lowly valued for the quality of the business (basically cycle lows so discounting a very grim outlook) and is quite close to NTAV, yet has remained profitable and cash generative through significant downturns in the past. I'd consider closer to 280-300p as fair value for the stock today versus investors being overly pessimistic on positioning.

At least they are doing a buyback at my perception of undervalued levels

Eric

[linton5] 26/10/2022 09:33

On my watchlist headlam boring as but getting to prices which must be attractive to competitors

[aublune] 17/10/2022 09:32

Victoria great results today