Hardy Amies Share Discussion Threads

[bungler] 02/4/2008 11:09

Not sure how to see this:

Positives

1/ More money to continue roll out.
2/ Arev still happy to fund that roll out. Their average share-price was about 3 pence If I remember rightly and now they have large loans out as well

Negatives:

1/ Brunning personally told me a few weeks ago that results would be out first week of April.

Bosco - I'm afraid I am beginning to veer towards ladybird's view now. I can't see how any positives can be drawn from this delay.

[ladybird1] 02/4/2008 10:45

bosco

Just so. I had noted your post a couple of weeks ago that an update would be available about now.

The hope re fund raising was surely a rights issue to repay the loan as well as to provide capital for further expansion.

The killer for me is the postponement of the results, or more specifically avoiding having to comment on current trading & prospects. Have you ever known this to be a positive sign?

Pointless trying to sell at this point, so wait & see.

[boscolane] 02/4/2008 10:36

They did say they were looking to raise more money a while back. They dont say they are running out of cash, just that the money is needed for store roll out. There certainly was no share dilution as a way of raising money which everyone was fearing. That is certainly positive. I am dissapointed that there was no update, especially as they promised one end of march /early april.

[ladybird1] 02/4/2008 10:25

bosco

a) The last loan was supposed to last until end 2009.
b) Trading update postponed until the last possible date.

If there were a positive reason to borrow more - eg. the new shops going great or greater expansion than originally planned, why not update & say so?

Implication is they're burning cash. Why would AREV throw good money after bad? To facilitate an orderly exit? Who knows, but it certainly doesn't look as if there's anything positive to say currently - or they would surely have said it.

[boscolane] 02/4/2008 10:13

Why do you say that Ladybird ?

[ladybird1] 02/4/2008 10:08

Oh dear!!!

[mirex] 26/3/2008 16:17

Even though the general sentiment seems to be AVOID RETAIL, have you noticed the good retail results being posted lately? Sainsbury's, Debenhams, perhaps even Woolies!?

[ladybird1] 25/3/2008 16:53

Well, somebody seems to think so (100k @1.3). Hope they're right!

[39rich] 25/3/2008 12:57

Is it worth a punt at the current share price

[ladybird1] 23/3/2008 10:29

Thanks, bungler. I certainly didn't know they were up & running there.

We will, I imagine, hear more in the accounts review/outlook, tho' they will likely be pretty guarded in what they say.

A good piece on Ted Baker in today's Independent (my techie skills don't run to posting a link)which sets out the arguments for/against the better end of the clothing retailers at present. TB have also gone for the far eastern market. Re HA, I like the summary from Numis '"If clothing shoppers trade up to buy fewer, more select garments Ted [Baker] seems well positioned to ride out the storm on the high street"', set against' "Frankly, this is a horrible market: retail is to be avoided," says an analyst at KBC Peel Hunt.'

One big difference, of course, is the funding position. HA are trying a hell of a lot off not much cash. Unlikely we'll get much idea before the late summer, but the outlook for the shares will be becoming fairly clear by then I would bet.

[bungler] 22/3/2008 10:18

On the other hand Jeremiah - this from Singapore!

Hardy Amies Boutique Shop
Cross Street, Nankin Row, #01-21
China Square Central
Singapore 048660
Telephone: [phone]



Did we know about this? Either way, the roll out continues and we're still on the way to making this into a quality global brand.

[ladybird1] 22/3/2008 00:08

At the risk of appearing a Jeremiah, the below from The Times

'The crisis of confidence among City bankers and dealers is hammering sales at upmarket Sloane Square department store Peter Jones.

Part of the John Lewis group, it has seen an abrupt slowdown in sales levels this year. Last week, according to new figures released by the company, sales were down more than 19%. Over the first seven weeks of the group's new financial year sales at the store, which recently had a £100m refit, have been down 11% on last year's levels. It has been the worst performing outlet in the group this year.

The store is in the heart of Kensington and Chelsea. It is the wealthiest residential area in the UK and home to thousands of City workers and West End-based hedge fund managers.

Andy Street, managing director of the John Lewis chain, recently said: "We are not happy with Peter Jones. But are we surprised? No. It is an indication of a small part of the economy. Its performance is hugely related to the success of the City of London and bonus payouts.'

[bungler] 20/3/2008 15:01

Well I haven't written these off at all though i just admit I am slightly concerned that there won't be many people buying £80 shirts and £450 suits at this particular moment. Anyway, we haven't long to wait to find out - results out first week of April I'm told.

[ladybird1] 17/3/2008 09:47

Gents

Sorry not to acknowledge earlier; have been away for a few days.

Just to comment on bosco's point re Tim's regime. Agree entirely it wasn't managerially competent & so failed. However, his strategy of taking licence fees & let others take the downstream risk does still seem to be right. Difficult in the present climate to see a major expansion in the UK retail market, with all the associated fixed overheads, as other than a gamble. The difficult market conditions were acknowledged in last autumn's statement; the economic outlook looks materially worse now.

Pf sums it up; mentally written off but here's hoping!

[pictureframe] 11/3/2008 14:47

still here - have mentally written these off. Not much to add hence my lack of posting but do believe the management team will be good for us shareholders long term. Market in general looks six months ahead so with profits next year we should see some re rating soon imho

[bungler] 11/3/2008 11:36

Seconded bosco - so that's you and me (and pictureframe if he/she is still about??) on the glass half-full side and clocktower and ladybird on the glass half-empty side! Not long to wait now to see who's right....

[boscolane] 11/3/2008 11:18

Ladybird, it's clear from your posts that you favoured the old regime. From my reading of the situation they looked to be on their way to the knackers yard. There was large scale fraud going on (alleged) and losses were burning cash at a precipitous rate.
You call the current managments running of the comapny a "gamble" but I think its HRDs best chance of realising their potential.
AREV could help turn HRD into a global brand. Under Tim M I simply couldn't see it happening. Spending large amounts on the V and A show was good publicity but there were higher priorities at that stage in my view.
No offence intended ladybird I simply take a different view of this and I think our best chance of making some money is under the current management.

[bungler] 11/3/2008 11:17

Is that a narrowing of the spread and an increase in the bid I see before me? What can it all mean?

[bungler] 11/3/2008 10:26

Aha - ok thanks all. I shall await with excitement and not a little trepidation then! Fully loaded now - bring it on!

[ladybird1] 10/3/2008 17:24

We've been over the ground a few times, I think.

They will need additional finance, as they have said. If the expansion is progressing well, the share price will rise & a rights issue at a decent price becomes feasible. If not, an injection of funds, presumably by Arev, the only route and consequently serious dilution, as clocktower says.

Funding doesn't have to be imminent, of course, but I imagine it will be clear how things are going by half year report. They will play fair if they can, I'm sure, but the outcome of the big gamble will decide what happens.

[boscolane] 10/3/2008 17:10

Bungler, I spoke to a senior member of the board recently and he told me it was likely the finals will be in march.
He was very impressive and certainly not like many of the AIM listed company management team members around.
Nigel Brunning was as candid as he could be considering the inside info laws. I asked him about fund raising and while he couldn't tell me how they are going to do it I simply dont see this company shafting small holders. (something which I have said before)
Its a matter of public record that Brunning and other board members, including Peter Phillips, are holders of sizable numbers of shares. Also AREV pride themselves at having a reputation in the city. There is no way they would risk pulling some kind of major dilution stunt. They would never be able to borrow money again.
I think there will be a rights issue but not one which leaves holders with worthless stakes in the company. I must stress I have no specific info about this.
As always DYOR as there is no guarantee im right !

[clocktower] 10/3/2008 16:35

No matter what I cannot see any way other than serious dilution ladybird1.

[ladybird1] 10/3/2008 16:32

They were negotiating the refinancing last spring, the results being published hard on the announcement. Unless there is something going on again, seems no reason why late March shouldn't be reasonable. Put another way, I'll start to sweat if they don't!

[bungler] 10/3/2008 15:29

Bosco - why do you think finals will be in March - a quick glance seems to show that last year they were in June? Mind you Interims were in September so it does all seem a little strange.....

[ladybird1] 09/3/2008 10:03

Bosco, thanks. Can't see what else it can mean but thought these are concessions?