Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lbrokes] 30/1/2019 16:05

Careful , you will be arrested for hate crime with username like that

[kaisharp] 30/1/2019 15:49

Oilretire - yep, that sounds par for the course

[onedb1] 30/1/2019 15:33

Good rally on Brent at the moment . Passing $62 as I type . $17 above the FCF level for the unhedged production . That is a nice margin to have

[oilretire] 30/1/2019 15:14

KaiSharp30 Jan '19 - 11:35 - 43272 of 43286
0 2 0
When should we expect:

a) Clarification on PMO's position on the Chevron assets;



When Chevron confirm they've sold the assets to Chrysaor or a.n.other :-)

[onedb1] 30/1/2019 15:08

Careful Steve or the troll ( turned out to be true in the end ) will be harassing you for these comments

[robizm] 30/1/2019 13:31

Are results due tomorrow.

[steve73] 30/1/2019 13:25

4% per day... yes.. I'd be out by Easter... (at around 350p)

edit...Easter is late this year... it'd be more like 650p on the 18th April.

[marvinridesagain] 30/1/2019 13:21

It will be manipulated back down, historically, Jabba and his sewer rat shorting mates are keeping this within a small trading range.

Jabba is doing his best to keep the share price low, again historically.

[the guardian] 30/1/2019 13:07

Good day so far. 4% increase per day would keep me happy.

[stansmith3] 30/1/2019 13:07

"pmo would be 100p right now without ri rumour"this is an example of deluded fantasist self reinforcing group think for the slower among you

[steve73] 30/1/2019 12:41

"I love smell of irony in the morning"... followed by sarcasm after lunch.

Keep it up guys..

[frankmcalorum] 30/1/2019 12:34

Really.....

[lageraemia] 30/1/2019 12:24

Er guys. There's WAY to much talk about oil fields and stuff relevant to PMO going on right now. Can we get to pointless bickering and a bit Brexit bullhit again.

[Another example for all you irony fans out there]

[porkchop15] 30/1/2019 12:22

A mere 150mn net. Hardly worth the bother. Tragic!

[For the slower among you, this is an example of irony.]

[kaisharp] 30/1/2019 11:35

When should we expect:

a) Clarification on PMO's position on the Chevron assets;
b) Some sort of indication as to what PMO will do with Zama.

The way I see it, debt, Zama, and the phantom of an RI are the three main catalysts affecting the share price, and all three are interlinked. The market punishes uncertainty, and having two of your three main issues on deck in a floating state is just asking for a beating. (NB I've excluded oil price intentionally, as I'm only looking at PMO specific factors).

Clarification on the Chevron assets - and specifically, whether an RI will take place - will either release the first set of shackles on the share price, or sink it even further.

Indication on their intentions for Zama - sell or hold - will release the second set of shackles: selling it to reduce debt ahead of guidance would be rewarded massively for obvious reasons; holding it would be a longer term play and likely still be rewarded though not as sharply as selling.

And then of course, debt; this is where selling Zama really becomes the most attractive proposition; the proceeds from that sale could comfortably reduce debt by more than the entire last 12 months of oil production in one fell swoop.

Though I will begin answering my own questions, I should make clear, I still invite more enlightened individuals than myself to put forward their thoughts too.

Clarification on Chevron assets will be unlikely to come from PMO. Sadly, our CEO is not renowned for his communication skills, so on the balance of probability, we will find out when a larger player like Ineos announces they've bought it.

As for their intention with Zama, I suspect it would be fair to say that the BoD will not give any indication prior to the completion of the appraisal program. Of course, the same lack of communication still applies, so there's a good chance we won't know for sure until either drilling commences or the For Sale sign goes up.


Without those two things cleared up, I will confess to being pleasantly shocked if we see anything close to 120p this side of summer, and I might need medical attention if we return to the heights of 150p again (barring major macro changes that could send the oil price back up to the $80s).

Until then, all we have on this board is, as privileged put it, wishful thinking. And a bit of bickering.

But while we are at it, here's my bit of wishful thinking as an LTH looking to reduce or exit:

1) T/O bid for PMO anywhere north of 100p; or

2) Sell Zama for a figure north of £700m, allocate the first £500m to debt reduction, and whatever is left over to acquiring smaller bundles of producing assets in NS to begin cratering that debt pile even further while simultaneously utilising those tax losses. TD says they're focusing on reducing debt, let's actually show the market that you mean it.

- Kai

[onedb1] 30/1/2019 11:31

Haha Andy , sorry about FRR and your bitterness it happens get over it The GS scenario is possible and indeed when I go long CFD my provider will go short . It's how it work s for all bar the few Given the threshold is 0.5% to disclose shorts where is the disclosure of such client ? It could well be that an event driven hedge fund is having such a bet these scenarios are their game . But am not clear as how they are hiding the physical short . When we had the convertible bond arbitrage shorts I was the only one to explain it back on iii days . Now I see this as another hedge but can't see the other side . As it's not reported as a short on Pmo that leaves me to believe it's else where . As for your jibes what can I say , amuse yourself . 55 to 135-141 was not bad . Calling this at 180-191 back in Jan 2018 was not bad and scuppered only due to Brent crash . Barclays 180 in June and RBC 230 same month were late in their notes Vs those who follow my views . There is a Filter button on this B.B. you and your pal Stan , use it .As for Enquest and 8 other in my Oil basket , I am still at 22.2 and staying there . 30p ish is the point of control abc IMO will get retested . On Pmo am at 70p . I repeat without the RI spectre we'd be at 100 . As the level was a clear support now resistance area that was taken out in Nov too easily and coincidence has it was when we heard about Chevron . That is all

[datait] 30/1/2019 11:12

Looking very good.

[lageraemia] 30/1/2019 11:07

Agreed

I was thinking more along the 'post-appraisal and a look at neighbouring block with PEMEX's drill in March' lines in terms of valuation - i.e. before going into FID stage

[datait] 30/1/2019 11:07

Logdeview no looking for advice lol

[privileged] 30/1/2019 10:32

Think a billion net to PMO may be a little rich at the moment based on the Sierra deal but with future drill and evaluation could easily get there

Some clarity on Chevron (ideally ruling out most of it) would be good then we can move on. PMO are probably best where they are right now pumping 90k at $63-64ish average with the hedges and paying down the debt, if it just did that and nothing else share price could easily be starting with a £2 in a couple of years IMO

Re the $4bn (or is it £4bn?) tax losses. There would be a lot of ring fencing but that has to be worth nearly $1bn (or £1bn) to the right party subject to the ring fencing - someone should buy PMO for this value to reverse into the Chevron deal then flog non-core assests like Zama etc.... win win for everyone ans us shareholders wishful thinking maybe!