Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[manics] 23/3/2017 19:24

Brand new insti shorts still rolling in a concern.

[marvin9] 23/3/2017 17:10

You have to laff at farts1... taking the mick out of PPG when he bought Gulf Keystone for over £40 now around 50p lol

[begorrah88] 23/3/2017 16:01

Until we get confirmation of the 75% CBH's agreeing then PMO is still very much in play for shorters etc

I agree that I would expect them to sign up as the alternative means is unlikely to be in anyone's interest but they could very well take umbrage and want to make life as difficult and uncomfortable as possible for TD.

I expect we are more likely to get a flavour of the take up via an article by Jillian Ambrose in the Telegraph than via a clear and unambiguous RNS from PMO as she has previously put out 2 articles that told us more than the board were telling us.

[ua36] 23/3/2017 14:58

Hi Begorrah - as far as I understand it, the main portion of the refinance is locked in with sufficient value of the RCF to carry it through.

50% (minimum, they never said exactly how much over) of the CBs are locked in so the question is - what happens if Premier doesn't secure the required additional 25%? Well, Premier have talked about "alternative means" to force it through in RNS' so I would imagine a legal battle and a delay to the overall refinance conclusion. Assuming (dangerous!) that Premier have decent legal representation I would hope that these alternative means are solid.

I'm reasonably confident that the 75% will be achieved though as, beyond everything else, the deal they've got is quite attractive with 75p conversion, 1.22FX rate and plenty of cheap 43p warrants. What more would 25% not voting in favour want!?

Short-term oil seems on the edge to me. What if the crude inventory drops don't start soon? What if US production adds another 100kbbls this month? What if there's a general market correction and everything is impacted? There are other projects along with Catcher (Kraken, Stella, Q204, Western Isles - just North Sea, must be over 250k barrels per day inc. Catcher) that are coming on-stream this year due to investments committed at the high, is this replicated elsewhere in the world and how will that effect the supply/demand balance?

If the OPEC cuts don't bring a meaningful reduction in the inventories - what do they do then? Cut more (and let others potentially take up even more slack?), regain market share by ramping up and selling at lower price? Start launching missiles at one another?

Shell seem smitten with shorter project initiation cycles in shale and are planning to pump $10billion in this year - when does that start to bear fruit?

Hard to decide if there's more risk than reward in the near-term. Longer-term I start to doubt my thoughts that we will see a supply crunch in the next few years which I had convinced myself to be the case not long ago!!! Complicated times in the oil business.

[nav_mike] 23/3/2017 14:54

Well for the first three days of this week, there was a real willingness to push the bid price higher, often in disregard to what the oil price was doing.

Now we are back into the same old pattern of the offer being constantly undercut and the bid being lowered.

As I mentioned before, if too many people expect something to happen on a certain day, the MMs will often ensure the exact opposite occurs.

[ua36] 23/3/2017 11:50

Any day that doesn't move up can't automatically be blamed on shorters (or others) though?

Brent is weak - volume is low. Occam's razor and all that.

[investordave] 23/3/2017 10:45

I see the scumbag shorters are our in force today.

[nav_mike] 23/3/2017 09:01

The cynic in me thinks the next order of business for the boys in the city will be:

(i) Mop up the shares from punters who thought there would be a surge once the CB pricing was over and

(ii) Help their hedgie mates exit from shorts as painlessly as possible

[begorrah88] 23/3/2017 09:01

No confirmation that 75% of CBH's have locked in and share price now down.

Those 2 things are not unrelated.

Another disappointment from the PMO board

[anony mous] 23/3/2017 08:34

Will the shorts closing hit the books.Nope. Doubt it.Now CB is done hopefully a steady rise to a quid.

[adg] 23/3/2017 08:27

Roguk
Are the short numbers reporting not time delayed? I thought they had up to 3 days (or even longer) to report the new position - I.e. I think it's old news

[steve73] 23/3/2017 07:50

:-))

I'm not sure I understand what they mean by fixed exchange rate set at 1.228....
Do they mean the CP is actually $0.91744..? so there could be up to 267MM additional shares if they all convert, irrespective of the actual exchange rate at the time of conversion.
...and if the pound strengthens again (which will hurt us financially as much of our costs are in GBP) then we get no benefits in the CP...!
Oh well - onwards and hopefully upwards now..

[glenkaz] 23/3/2017 07:28

Yes thanks Steve hope you can make loads here for your hard work! 🤗🍷 cheers!

[ulvers] 23/3/2017 07:21

Steve73
Many thanks for your monitoring of the VWAP over the last few weeks it saved me time doing the calculations myself...lol.
As can be seen in the rns this morning you are pretty well on the money with a final conversion number of 74.71.

GLA

[steve73] 23/3/2017 00:59

Well I make the VWAP over the period 62.41 after another low volume day yesterday - looks like the gave up trying to depress the price further.
This will set the conversion price as 74.9, or $0.93 at todays exchange rate - not bad compared to the $7 it was set at before - so there'll be more than 7.5 times as many new shares resulting from this bond issue than was expected. Not a bad deal for the convertibles holders....!

Let's hope the refinancing can now be finally put to bed, after almost 9 months of covenant test deferrals.

GL all shareholders.. may the shorters burn in hell!!

[hearts1] 22/3/2017 21:55

Marv, has your ring recovered from the decimation it suffered from PPG?

[leoneobull] 22/3/2017 19:48

1 m buy after the 2m yday. Those pi's selling need their heads examining. Quite simply you are letting shorters and arbitrage boys out the cheap who clearly need to buy in volume.

[puzzler2] 22/3/2017 19:39

Well, we've now finished the 22nd March trading day, so VWAP for the prescribed period will have been determined - interesting to see if the share price now behaves "normally".

[barvin] 22/3/2017 13:37

Good to see the comeback of many oil & mineral stocks.

BOR has seen a wall of sells over the last 2 weeks, all mopped up with no movement in the price. So either institutions or others are building a stake.

Although oil is taking a hit of late, 2017 is the rebound imo.

BOR is worth a look, totally opposite chart to Falkland oil peers, RKH and ARG.

[patience a virtue] 22/3/2017 13:16

Love it when the site is quiet, good sign.