Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[oiler1] 22/3/2017 10:28

Txxx, you dont even know how to count you imbecile.

[oiler1] 22/3/2017 10:03

Why are you posting if not invested unless its to encourage panic sells, are you a troll.

ROGK is a Bottom feeder, but we can all rest well knowing that what goes around comes around. In buckets for you.

[ua36] 22/3/2017 09:34

In all seriousness, whilst I've no doubt that Rogk is around to stir up trouble, if oil stays around these levels ($50-55) for a prolonged period then I think some form of equity raise for capital to pay down debt is perhaps likely. Otherwise the rate the debt will be paid down is going to be glacial. Issue is with that is you'll likely have the double whammy of a lower share price as a result meaning the impact of any raise would be greater.

Surely the oil bears must be running out of steam though - approaching sub $50 which is a key point for Premier ref. positive cashflow generation. Much lower and it moves from "how quickly will the debt be paid" to "how will the debt be paid".

Really tricky to call at the moment in light of the wider market and potential (one big down day does not make a trend) retreat of global markets.

[investordave] 22/3/2017 07:28

And I would imagine you're short too rogk?

[investordave] 22/3/2017 07:13

And a worthless opinion at that.

[morph7] 22/3/2017 07:02

And that's all it is Rog - your opinion.

[steve73] 22/3/2017 01:38

Well that late declared 2MM buy at 67 (timed at 13:33) upset things a bit... Daily VWAP finished at 66.2 on 8.3MM giving the overall VWAP of 62.3 (or 0.5% above target).

Based on the value of the CB's outstanding, this extra 0.5% would reduce the number of additional shares on conversion by around 1.3 MM.

To get back to 62p with just todays trading to go would require >60MM trades @ 61, >30MM @ 60, >20MM @ 59, etc..

I agree with ua - I think they'll probably be happy what they've achieved, although with the oil price down around 1$ from yesterday they might try to encourage a few weak holders to sell.

Declared shorts are currently 7.1% (or around 36 MM shares). Comparing previous months declared shorts to total stock-on-loan suggests the total shorts are more like 2.5x that, so perhaps around 17-18% or 90MM shares, a similar figure the number of warrants being issued as part of the refinancing.......!

[marvin9] 21/3/2017 21:22

The markets are in turmoil, oil has tanked, board has gone well silent?

Good news tomorrow,? this will do well to keep gains.

TD needs to go and Pronto! Missed every chance in passed oil price rises..

[leoneobull] 21/3/2017 19:08

Spot the two million late declare at 67d

[marvin9] 21/3/2017 18:02

Well Frac sand stocks have been falling over the last few days along with oil storage stocks

[ua36] 21/3/2017 15:26

All of the above discounts any general market corrections of course (as I watch the S&P and Dow tank!!).

If that happens then the bigger market forces are too strong to second guess and better off down in the bunker waiting for a clear path to emerge!

[ua36] 21/3/2017 14:31

I'd be surprised if there's any more selling happening now in order to control the vwap - the job has been done as far as I can see.

How many shorters that will need to close via the market rather than via the 43p warrants is something I've been thinking about but hard to come to any sensible conclusion on that really. Conservative part of me says that the majority of the non-CB shorts will close via the warrants.... can argue for the opposite though! The convertible bond delta shorts won't close regardless as that's an inherent part of the bond arbritrage they play.

All about the oil price and conclusion of the refinance in May from now I think. An EIA draw and more OPEC extension talk should see things turn out nicely in the short term I think. Conversely, builds and any OPEC cracks may cause some bumps.

[dr biotech] 21/3/2017 14:10

If "they" are going to have to buy back what they have sold, then it would make sense for some of them to do it before the rush. It could be that some have made a tidy profit on the short and want to add that to the rest of their gains.

FWIW, and given my trading record is ordinary - I have opened a long SB today. Hoping for low to mid 70s by the end of next week.

[fireplace22] 21/3/2017 13:39

Maybe just diminishing returns for the effort required to short from here within the given time frame?

[steve73] 21/3/2017 13:33

beg - very low volume so far today though (<3.3MM), so it won't raise the VWAP much over the whole period (with over 200MM in total). Currently 62.2p.

[begorrah88] 21/3/2017 12:57

They are leaving it a bit late to walk it down today. The VWAP could well be over 62p at this rate.

Maybe they are banking on a bad day for POO tomorrow to help them out a bit.