Hansard Global Share Discussion Threads

[thuja2] 13/6/2012 23:39

Could it be possible that the management of HSD can also see these problems, it does say that they invest globally not just the EU and could invest in Germany and the countries that have more stable economies, we can but hope.

[envirovision] 13/6/2012 19:56

Here here. As for the currency argument people are forgetting any adjustment would be with relationship to sterling. If spain were to leave the euro, since as a nation its public debt is far far lower than the UK and its private debt ratio multiples lower than the UK's then in all probability the Spanish currency equivalent would gain whilst sterling adopted a downward trajectory. I rather think many people are forgetting themselves. By all accounts Britain could only in its wildest dreams have a combined debt as low as Spains right now!

[aleman] 13/6/2012 17:41

I seem to be having this argument about value a lot just lately. I buy shares when they're cheap. I don't aim for the bottom. I've no idea when the bottom is or when it will come. Lots of investors say they're waiting for the bottom but history shows hardly anybody ever knows when it is or buys at it. (I bought some shares at the bottom in Oct 2008/March 2009 because I kept reinvesting dividends throughout as the money became available. I picked up some when they were cheap before the bottom, some at the bottom and some after - but I wasn't to know it was the bottom at the time. It just felt like it might be along soon since shares were cheap. Most people that moved to cash sat on the cash, saying it was a dead cat bounce and then a double dip recession - and missed the bottom, with many not buying the cheaper periods either side, either. People should take good value when its offered. It's no different for Spanish property. Timing the bottome is a mugs game.

[paul_butcher1999] 13/6/2012 17:01

Aleman - I would not have money in a French bank either.

Ireland would be nearer the 30% side and Spain and Greece nearer the 80% side.

Any idiot with money in any such bank (or shares) in these countries will be alone very soon - and with respect to property I'd also be getting out - particularly Spain and Greece. Properties may be cheap - but 60%-80% cheaper would be, well, 60%-80% cheaper than now.

If you desperately want something for a holiday and do not want the hassle of worrying about losing money etc then go ahead. But I would wait for exit/ general collapse of the euro first.

Finally - the media is massively downplaying the risks of euro collapse. Only the FT seems on the ball on this one. Its going down. I predicted this from the early 1990s as it was a 100% certainty even then if they went ahead. Others now realise 100% certainty too (because fiscal union is not going to happen).

[fangorn2] 13/6/2012 12:12

The downside I gather is that Spain's rules governing property rights are rather arbitrary, and that local government can allegedly decide to run a main road through your back garden without the home owner having any recourse.

Not sure validity of such well known critiques given the medium they have been voiced in (Daily mail) but perhaps someone can expand.

[aleman] 13/6/2012 11:16

But much Spanish property is cheap! If you have the cash, it's good value. Studio/1 beds asking prices start at £20k+ and 2 beds at £30k for Spanish seaside getaways. Why should the Euro get in the way of cash deals at such low prices?









I don't see why anyone should swap Irish Euros for French Euros when Ireland has improved so much it runs a current account surplus yet France has deteriorated to run a deficit. Why should Ireland devalue 30-80% but France not? I'm not saying there is no devaluation risk, but that the "self-fulfilling effect" is a gross exaggeration of the underlying fundamentals by the media and the weakening position of the likes of France is ignored.

[paul_butcher1999] 13/6/2012 08:04

logonair you are of course right. Only a muppet of the most extreme kind would have any money in a Greek, Protugese, italian, Spanish or Irish bank - where there is a real risk of losing 30%-80% of the value compared to the 'old euro while people with money in a German bank may find their 'old' euro or 'new' deutchmark appreciate by say 40% .. . so much so insanely obvious. Similarly anyone holding shares in any of the countries at risk of devaluation against their former euro partners is bonkers. This all has a self fulfilling effect pushing weak countries to bank runs and their debt interest higher - while doing the opposite to Germany. So without rapid move to full fiscal union the Euro is dead (not just Grexit).

Does this have a fundemental effect on Hansard though? Not sure how.

p.s. you would be NUTTER to buy property in spain prior to their (inevitable) exit from the euro. Italy has a chance of remaining in but Spain zero.

[aleman] 12/6/2012 12:34

I'd suggest you are overgeneralising. Ireland has a current account surplus. Greece's deficit has halved between 2008 and 2011 and is so improved this year that it is close to turning in a surplus in H1. (Although that is driven by a very large collapse in imports which is unsustainable. Exports growth remains strong, though.) Spain's current account deficit is pretty big but inmproving. Portugal's likewise. The amount currencies would have to fall to balance trade out are much more modest than the nonsense being touted in the media, although an overshoot to begin with would always be likely. You'd probably be looking at a 10%+ weaker currency for Spain. Portugal, and Greece. A bit less for Italy and a stronger currency for Ireland who have benefitted greatly from good farm product prices. Alternatively another couple of years of strong wage increases in Germany and the Nordics would do just as well. Most of the necessary adjustments have already been made in the last 4 years or are likely to be made in the next couple of years, given the prevailing national moods.

We have media spouting EU federalist propaganda and exaggerated scare stories based on very selective numbers that aren't necessarily entirely up to date. It's bad - but not so bad that it can't be solved as underlying economics are improving improving as PIIGS relative wage costs improve. The federalist are just pouring petrol on the fire to extract a lot more centralised powers for a United States of Europe in return for eventually handing over the water bucket.

p.s. It's a great time to buy property in Spain if you have the cash .Look at the prices on rightmove. Good value property is often an early sign of things turning around

[loganair] 12/6/2012 10:17

What is really beginning to worry me is that I'm hearing on the grape vine that the big money is moving out of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece, even a small amount from France and is moving massively into Germany, Austria, Netherlands and Finland. Financial stocks like HSD will be greatly hit, could easily see the share price decline by 50% from where it is today.

Once the big money starts to move there is very little that can be done to stop it. The only way out as far as I can see if for there to be a Mediterranean Euro comprising of Portugal, Spain, Italy, Slovenia, Greece and Cyprus then to devalue themselves by 50% against the Euro.

I also think that Ireland needs to pull out of the Euro, bring back the Punt and as up until the early 1980's fix it 1 to 1 against the British Pound while their central bank maintains it's independence - considering around 60% plus of Irish trade is with the UK and 1/3rd of their adult population works in the UK earning their salaries in Pounds.

The Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway & Sweden) to go for a lose monetary union, fixing their currencies 1 to 1 while each countries central bank maintains their independence then knock a Zero off and fix at 1 to 1 against the Pound thereby forming a strong Northern Currency block to balance the Euro and the Southern European Mediterranean Euro.

Going the whole hog I'd pull the UK, Ireland, Sweden and Denmark out of the European Union to form up with Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein to reform EFTA.

As we all are already signed up to all the EU protocols we could have full Free Trade and movement of people between EFTA and the EU including that any EFTA country can fully own any EU company and vis-a-versa. EFTA would be an extremely good and strong counter balance to the EU.

[pvb] 06/6/2012 07:49

yup but eps this year forecast for 16p = 160p

So that's alright then!

I was specifically avoiding the 'forecast' figure...

[paul_butcher1999] 04/6/2012 11:27

yup but eps this year forecast for 16p = 160p

[pvb] 30/5/2012 10:14

OK. Could be. Also the PER could be adjusting, it did seem a bit high to me. A PER of say 8 would put it at about 96p.

PER ....... x8 .. x10

eps 14p .. =112p =140p
eps 12p .. = 96p =120p

So around 130p would seem to make some sense. For now!

[thuja2] 24/5/2012 16:32

As this one has paid out end of March and is not going to pay again till September, often investors come out of a big paying share till nearer the time to report and just buy for the dividend, or run up to the dividend, this could be the case for this one, as it often is for insurers and utilities, just a thought as the report did not seem bad.

[pvb] 24/5/2012 10:33

This just seems to be on a relentless downtrend. Why? Is it reasonable? Is it just in line with the market? I am losing here and thinking of dumping. What do others think.

To be honest, I don't really undestand this one and feel a bit 'uncomfortable' with the business model. I suppose that alone is a classic warning sign.

[paul_butcher1999] 08/5/2012 22:05

Thanks Boros10, I'm not risking much on this one, hard one to read.

[boros10] 07/5/2012 21:23

Paul

I can't help you on that one. I was initially drawn to the stock by the low valuation and high dividend yield. Free cashflow per share has exceeded EPS over the last six years which is impressive but EPS peaked in 2007 and has been in decline ever since.

Not one for me but good luck with it.

[paul_butcher1999] 07/5/2012 12:07

boros10 fair enough on ethical point although i personally dont see the risk of them doing the same to shareholders (but agree risk to shareholders in terms of longevity of the model). in terms of an (maybe unethical) investment though seems pretty safe bet for many years - or am i missing something?

[boros10] 06/5/2012 14:54

"I do not think the far east or south america etc will be having EU style regulation any time soon (i.e. next 20 years and then review again)."

You may be right but I don't want to be invested in a business which appears to be "ripping off" ill informed overseas investors by charging them an initial spread of 7.5% to 8% and an annualised TER of more than 2% p.a.

It may seem easy money but it inevitably ends in tears for the unsophisticated investor and the promoter alike. You only need to look at the UK where we have seen the the misselling of endowment mortgages and more recently PPI. How many sophisticated PI would buy a financial product from a high street bank these days?

My simply view is if a Company is happy ripping off its customers then one day it may be tempted to do the same to its shareholders.

[paul_butcher1999] 06/5/2012 10:58

Environvision, the companies business and profits are growing and forecast to keep growing along with the already high dividend. I am not being facetious - but genuinely checking - what kind of thing would you expect the management to say in the presentation other than that? Share prices can go up or down fairly randomly and shares can be undervalued or overvalued - and the main thing management can do it try to keep growing the business and profits. What were you expecting? sharebuybacks? (I dont think sharebuybacks are an efficient tool btw).

I do not think the far east or south america etc will be having EU style regulation any time soon (i.e. next 20 years and then review again). Am I wrong?

[envirovision] 04/5/2012 08:33

At the presentation they did for davidosh, they were unable to provide any idea of how to support the shareprice, clearly nothing has changed.

[soi] 04/5/2012 07:51

Thanks Robsy2

I think you are right, I still hold but beginning to wish I didn`t,sp performance has been poor.

[robsy2] 03/5/2012 17:54

Chaps
I'm out ater a dissapointing few years. I think it gets marked down with the general insurers when the market gets the jitters.
There is a lot of scurity in earnings but while falling markets do affect profitability because most of their fees are based arounnd the MV of the invsetments they have under management, the investment risk is the clients not the product providers.
They are good at what they do,ralative to their competitors, but changes in UK and European regulation , basically transparency is enough for damage their business, so they move elsewhere and continue to prosper but my feeling is that the legislataion will follow them and squeeze them over time.
I'm out so thats my position. Good luck whatever you do!
R2