The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 26/4/2019 10:31

TurboCharge Reiterates GYM as a long term solid hold.

#308, 19 Mar 2019: "One to hold for the longer term :)"

[rathean] 26/4/2019 09:50

Still a happy holder, not looking to start top slicing until circa 300.

[quepassa] 26/4/2019 09:38

Peel Hunt again REITERATE their BUY recommendation today with an unchanged TARGET PRICE of 350p.

Pell Hunt see a whopping 50% UPSIDE to today's price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mount teide] 16/4/2019 14:32

Modern society wants the flexibility of the Gym Group's low cost model - my local Virgin Active and David Lloyd facilities continue to lose members to their low cost rivals - this will continue, since 90%+ of their membership only use the GYM facilities.

Why pay £50 a month, when you can attend a low cost gym with equipment of a similar quality for circa £15 a month AND NO 12 month minimum membership fee.

[masurenguy] 16/4/2019 13:19

The Gym Group – looking for a strong AGM statement and continued recovery
By Mark Watson-Mitchell 11 April 2019

Just over 3 weeks ago the group announced its 2018 results and they were impressive, showing a 35.6% increase in revenue to £123.9m. Pre-tax profits of £10.0m produced earnings of 8.4p per share, amply covering a 1.3p dividend for the year. By the end of February total membership had risen 9.5% since December to a staggering 793,000. For the current year, brokers are estimating that revenue will increase 21% to £150m, whilst pre-tax profits are expected to double to £20m, giving earnings of 11.5p and a dividend of 1.75p per share. For the end of the 2020 year, revenue of circa £170m could see profits of £25m, some 14.5p of earnings and 2.2p of dividend per share.

The UK gym market is valued at around £4.9bn, the low-cost segment is estimated to have grown some 29% from 2014, and The Gym Group estimates that today it has some 24% of the UK low-cost gym market. There really is a very significant headroom for future growth. With its market-leading position and its new club opening strategy, the group will substantially increase its membership base, whilst gaining massive advantages from the economies of scale as it drives its technology, its brand and its marketing. Scale will bring strong financial returns.

With its shares at 220p the group is valued at £303m. I see them rising back up to their peak of 343p, reached in September last year, since when they have fallen back to 186p before their recovery rise after the 2018 results. The AGM statement on 4thJune just has to be bullish and, I believe, that will give the ‘recovery’ impetus more oomph. 300p is an easy 2019 target price, in my opinion.

[turbocharge] 16/4/2019 00:00

The Gym Group Annual Report and Accounts 2018

[thomshrike] 04/4/2019 17:01

The difference of market spin on Gym Group vs. Basic-Fit is appalling.
Yes, it's true that for Basic-Fit France represents a bigger growth opportunity than the UK for GYM, BUT: (i) apparently opening 125 gyms per year is a walk in the park, with hardly any risk of execution hiccups or competitive threats; (ii) member behavior track record in France is still very recent, meaning less certainty that consumer patterns will be consistent; (iii) penetration in the home country Netherlands is much higher than in the UK.
In the end Basic-Fit trades at a 50% premium to Gym Group, which, to put euphemistically, looks excessive.

[shauney2] 04/4/2019 15:24

GYM pumping today.Up 6%.Barclays did the recent damage to the share price predicting gym memberships would slow because of over supply and downgraded to 265p (380)
Liberum have poo pood that and said GYM usage would double in the next ten years.Current target is 350p

[shauney2] 04/4/2019 15:10

Maybe they were filling those.Is that how it works i don't know.

Nice gap to fill up to 250p if i'm correct bamboo?

[turbocharge] 04/4/2019 14:55

Talking of volume, 2 buys of 200,000 @ £2.26 at 14:32

[shauney2] 04/4/2019 12:00

Interesting rise on not that much volume.

[bamboo2] 03/4/2019 12:45

From a TA perspective, the chart has a few common, or area gaps.
These act like a magnet on the share price

Chart from a few days ago...



Red circles and orange lines mark the gaps.

[sphere25] 03/4/2019 12:31

Shorts at work here (at least one). They have killed the momentum we had. Now we wait for the next update.

[thomshrike] 22/3/2019 11:32

One question mark for me after hearing about the roll-out of smaller units was whether it would imply slower growth on their normal gym format, BUT I had the chance to follow up with management, who clarified that the launch of new smaller units will be "on top" of the 15-20 annual additions of normal-sized gyms.

[gf13] 21/3/2019 15:32

the weekly chart looks nice, probably another few days of rise.

[rathean] 21/3/2019 15:22

Top sliced today but keeping the rest until well north of 300.

[mount teide] 21/3/2019 13:35

After talking profits and reducing my over position by 75% at circa 300p, following this weeks impressive results have put 50% of it back to work here.

Low price, well equipped gyms are the future - a local Virgin Active of which i've been member for over 10 years is struggling - membership according to the General Manager who i know well has dropped by 14% over the last three years.

[turbocharge] 21/3/2019 13:24

I'm planning to hold onto my shares longer term, hopefully to at least 350+ as a minimum target :)

[quepassa] 21/3/2019 12:07

Irrational sell-off last year because of

1. Founder leaving
2. Profit-taking by Pre-Ipo institutional backers as the stock had quickly doubled in value since Nov 2015 flotation.
3. Generalised small-cap weakness in 2018 Q3 and Q4
4.Overreaction by market when Company did the wise thing to bring forward refurbishment program of newly acquired sites which led to fewer trading days.


The market has not yet fully factored in

1. The dramatically increasing exercise and fitness trend
2. The attraction of the low-cost / paygo health-club business model which will open up and increase the market exponentially (eg what RyanAir And Easy did for air travel)
3. High street commercial property pricing weakness which will allow Gym Group to drive some hard bargains on new locations and on rental renewals.
4. The confidence of the management team in yesterday's figures and webcast
5. The brokers who see massive upside with Liberum at 330p Target Price, Peel Hunt at 350p Target Price and Berenberg at 330p Target Price.
6. The growth potential of this Company and this sector.


Personally, I see Gym Group readily regaining and surpassing the 350p levels achieved last year after a set of very robust results earlier this week and a particularly strong management outlook.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[gf13] 21/3/2019 11:20

whoosh...can we break 230 this week?

[gf13] 20/3/2019 21:03

Seekingalpha___Can The Gym Group Be The U.K.'s Planet Fitness?____

[sphere25] 20/3/2019 18:40

Right where are we ---> much better!

Those results didn't warrant a derating down from the 250 level imo. A slight stumble has caused far too great a fall. The results should give Mr Market the confidence to bid the stock back up to the 250 level imo.

There is a great deal more interest in the stock with plenty of buyers around 215 these past couple of days. Just creeping up toward that key 220 level.

I dare the institutional fund manglers to try to have a go at not mangling funds and bid the stock above that level tomorrow!