The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[turbocharge] 15/1/2019 08:54

Trend reversing, hopefully will continue after investor presentation....?

[turbocharge] 15/1/2019 08:45

Topped up again 10 minutes ago:

08:35:36 210.0000 1,111 O 208.5000 210.0000 Buy

[dtaliadoros] 15/1/2019 08:36

Good set of results. I like the exceed estimations on the 2017 site operations. Only negative is the 1m yearly hit in PT rents.

[rock star] 15/1/2019 07:24

Feeling a bit wary of this stock. Large Director sales with debt going up and aggressive expansion in uncertain times.

[yorkshireinvestor] 15/1/2019 07:19

Good update, would like to see a Like for like sales measure on current estate? Market cap was c. £310m at close of play - 2018 adj. EBITDA £37m Market cap/adj. EBITDA = 8.4

[davr0s] 14/1/2019 18:50

All that matters is that it's broken trend and thankfully I sold much higher up

[shauney2] 14/1/2019 15:56

PUG,forgot about that recent placing.Funny enough i bought back some recently at the same price thinking that was support.I would imagine they would have a lock in period but really not that au fait with those situations.

[turbocharge] 14/1/2019 15:24

Just topped up a few minutes ago:

15:19:51 224.8799 1,111 O 224.0000 225.0000 Buy

[turbocharge] 14/1/2019 13:25

Director still holding significant amounts:

Mr. John Treharne 3,532,702 2.56
Mr. Richard Darwin 973,569 0.706
Mr Paul John Gilbert 687,776 0.499

[pugugly] 14/1/2019 13:12

shauney2 - Thanks for massively improving layout. With placing at 248p and share price back to 223p must be some very worried placees unless already sold out.

[shauney2] 14/1/2019 13:01

Good for them i say.

09 Nov 2018 J Spaven Sell 356,535 @ 330.00p £1,176,565.50
28 Sep 2018 Paul Gilbert Sell 200,000 @ 310.00p £620,000.00
06 Sep 2018 John Treharne Sell 500,000 @ 329.00p £1,645,000.00
20 Jun 2018 John Treharne Sell 500,000 @ 272.50p £1,362,500.00
08 Jan 2018 Emma Woods Buy 8,930 @ 224.28p £20,028.03
13 Oct 2017 Paul Gilbert Sell 500,000 @ 210.00p £1,050,000.00
21 Mar 2017 David Kelly Buy 5,000 @ 176.20p £8,810.00
02 Dec 2016 Richard Darwin Buy 12,500 @ 162.00p £20,250.00
02 Dec 2016 John Treharne Buy 20,000 @ 162.06p £32,412.00
02 Dec 2016 Penny Hughes Buy 12,500 @ 162.00p £20,250.00
16 Sep 2016 Paul Gilbert Sell 332,713 @ 210.00p £698,697.30

[pugugly] 14/1/2019 12:47

I suspect the extract below - Thanks to Daily Mail says all that needs to be said
Date Action Director No. shares Price (p) Value (£)
09 Nov 18 Sell J Spaven 356,535 330 1,176,566
28 Sep 18 Sell Paul Gilbert 200,000 310 620,000
06 Sep 18 Sell John Treharne 500,000 329 1,645,000
20 Jun 18 Sell John Treharne 500,000 273 1,362,500

House broker still appears to be trying to push water up hill
Date Broker Recomm. Current Price Price when issued Old price New price
14 Jan 19 Peel Hunt Buy 227.75 228.00 350.00 -
10 Jan 19 Barclays CapitalEquaW 227.75 266.00 380.00 265.00

Apologies if not posted clearly but link below:
nvesting.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/GYM

[turbocharge] 14/1/2019 10:05

Will top up by 1,111 if drops again to around 126

[thomshrike] 14/1/2019 09:41

What happened IMO:
- in November, Pure Gym became a bit more promotional. Their past success with a similar initiative to GYM's LiveIt gave them slack to reinvest in price without hurting their yields. Usually January is promotional but November is not.
- GYM followed suit in selected locations. Some of those prices have now returned to former levels, others haven't.
- Some buy-side/sell-side analysts tracked this development. Hence the initial share price decline. Obviously the market correction also contributed.
- BarCap finally wrote a note about it last week, asking whether this wouldn't be an indication of excess capacity in the industry and the stock tanked again.

What was not mentioned:
- The price of other GYM units increased in the same period. LiveIt is probably doing well. GYM has other levers to use: joining fee, etc. Hence, there is no guarantee that GYM's numbers will be downgraded. Even if you get a downgrade, this should be low single digit, whereas the stock already fell by c. 30%.
- There is no evidence whatsoever of excess capacity in the industry and GYM continues to gain market share. Being larger means more economies of scale and better yields. The larger operators will continue to pull away from competition.

As always, just my opinion. DYOR.

[turbocharge] 13/1/2019 19:30

DTaliadoros: "That's a number analyst don't really see"

I'm thinking along the same lines....

[dtaliadoros] 13/1/2019 12:13

Fact.... Maybe that's went share price dropped a bit. I had done same as you. Sold 75 %in December's.... Bought back Thursday. Am normally quite hesitant to buy before results but based my faith in this on how full I see my local gyms. That's a number analyst don't really see.

[dsct] 12/1/2019 20:58

Having held these since Sept 17, I'm quite surprised at their 330p to 230p drop since November, on no news, but seemingly just the general market sentiment to high PE shares (possibly?).

I did sell 25% of my holding at the beginning of December (put towards funding my AJB investment as far as I can recall).

I class GYM as one of my mid-holdings, being in the 5%-10% of my total folio range. It's still just about there, but depending upon Tuesday's trading update, I would hope to re-purchase the 25% previously sold, albeit at less than the 275p I sold at.

On a lighter note :o)

[thomshrike] 11/1/2019 23:58

Keith, your anecdotes are not supported by official figures. In fact GYM membership numbers continue to be very healthy and market share steadily increases while new entrants stagnate.
As for Brexit, expect more people to trade down and join a low-cost gym.

[keith95] 11/1/2019 20:12

"can't see all this Brexit negativity having much impact on how well GYM does"

The problem is people and their habits. I've been a member for 3 years now in one populated location ....


... was packed 3 years ago .... numbers are dropping rapidly especially noticeable at peak times ....

Good intentions wear off eventually people stop going, forget about the subscription, then remember and cancel the subscription ....


... plus you have competition with the core model, especially as retail stores are closing and more people copy the idea of a gym to utilize the space ...


Now as people worry about jobs and the Brexit decline ... the gym is the last thing on the mind.

[turbocharge] 11/1/2019 15:14

Am thinking of adding another 1,111 as well

[rathean] 11/1/2019 15:09

Fwiw added another 2000 at 232 and change. Will add again at 220 if we reach that before the results, otherwise that's me until my margin is met.

[thomshrike] 11/1/2019 14:42

This whole situation seems to have been triggered by some GYM promotional activity in November, which in turn is said to have been a reaction to Pure Gym's own promotional activity. Most of those discounts have already been reverted and conversely prices at other units have been increased. Overall mix should also benefit from Live It. Analysts are probably refraining from making any conviction buy calls before the company reports next week.
Given the steep share price decline, I would expect the company to see next week's RNS as an opportunity to reiterate their solid and improving competitive position and to guide the market for little or no downgrades to 2019 estimates. A relief rally could follow. Again, just my opinion. DYOR.

[turbocharge] 11/1/2019 11:02

There are always traders out there, can't get away from them (I've been known to trade on the odd occasion, usually unsuccessfully)

[dtaliadoros] 11/1/2019 10:53

Turbo.... Only wondering if someone is trading on advanced news as the volatility over the past week has been quite remarkable.

[turbocharge] 11/1/2019 10:17

Also, can't see all this Brexit negativity having much impact on how well GYM does...