Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[suetballs] 08/12/2020 15:30

imo they should repay the rate relief and just move on.
One less thing for the detractors to moan about.
Suet

[italianofacile] 08/12/2020 15:02

My understanding was that they were going to consider a dividend in March 2021, which will come from distributable profits enhanced by 2020 performance..and paid for with cash earned in 2020..but we will see

[coxsmn] 08/12/2020 13:29

Shareholders didn't receive any dividends this year, we have already missed out.

[italianofacile] 08/12/2020 11:36

..feeling if they wish to pay a dividend then pressure will be intense to repay furlough and rates...

[coxsmn] 08/12/2020 08:05

They are not obliged to pay back tax relief, it was given to help during a very difficult period where all retail estate and sports was shut down and ultimately it is this and the prudent steps taken by the company helped save jobs. Should some businesses pay back tax relief and not others, should some of the general public pay back their furlough?

High street bookmakers were already grappling from the fobt review introduced earlier this year, now before the Covid pandemic is even over the government is already emarking on another gambling review starting this week which could inflict even more damage to the uk industry. I hope they make balanced decisions that are evidence based and not fuelled by the strong personal views of a handful of anti-gambling MPs.

[srpactive] 08/12/2020 07:56

Yes the article states gvc have done brilliant under the
lockdown but we must keep them down and let flutter
surge really.

I said IDS and his sh*it stirrers will be out.

[speedsgh] 08/12/2020 07:41

Bookmakers urged to repay business rates relief after online betting booms under lockdown -

MPs have urged bookmakers to repay tens of millions of pounds of business rates relief after online betting boomed in lockdown. A slew of pandemic winners have handed back more than £2billion of business rates relief. B&Q-owner Kingfisher is the latest. It has returned a £130million tax break following a boom in DIY and home improvement in lockdown.

Now pressure is mounting on gambling companies to pay back their rates relief. Ladbrokes Coral's owner GVC, which has 3,300 UK shops, will receive £20million in business rates relief this year, while Paddy Power-owner Flutter, which has 350 UK shops, benefits to the tune of £4.8million.

Although the bookies have been closed in both lockdowns, they have benefited from the boom in online gambling.

GVC upgraded its earnings forecast to £780million in November thanks to 'current online trading' and has seen its share price almost triple since its nadir in March.

Despite booming trade it has also refused to hand back tens of millions of pounds claimed under the furlough scheme.

Flutter's revenues grew by close to a third between July and September, and this week it signed a £3billion deal to buy a larger share of US sports betting company Fanduel.

Esther McVey MP, leader of the Blue Collar Conservative group, said: 'If you don't need the Government handout then send it back, because there are plenty of people who will.'

Labour MP Carolyn Harris, chairman of the all-party parliamentary group for gambling harm, said: 'While so many bars, restaurants, pubs and shops fear for their survival, it's only right that large bookmakers should pay this money back so it can be directed where it is needed most.'

Flutter and GVC declined to comment.

[popper joe] 07/12/2020 20:54

Well that depends on the quality of the wine!

[cheshiremoggie] 07/12/2020 20:31

I think I meant shut up...

[italianofacile] 07/12/2020 20:22

From memory DraftKings are guiding to c800m Revenue 2021..ROAR iGaming alone will come close if US markets perform as I see them in 2021. Margins according to GVC will be ahead of DK..right now DraftKings is worth C. 2.5 times GVC..so which one is the buy?

[italianofacile] 07/12/2020 20:10

C. Excellent point.. ROAR has value.. The fact one can even make an argument that it is worth more than GVC, shows the market may be mispricing this stock by a margin and some..

[coxsmn] 07/12/2020 18:48

Cheshire,

DraftKings is US facing only, loss making and valued at 19 billion.

Applying your logic then no value should be assigned to the Draftking share price as its a cost centre, potential only and not yet profits.

What we have is no value assigned to the GVC share price for BetMGM yet Draftkings is valued at 19 billion. Seems like quite a discrepancy.

[cheshiremoggie] 07/12/2020 18:18

Srp.More Uk regulation is holding this back not conspiracy theory.US is a cost centre at the moment, not a profit centre - value the us on profits not potential and you can see that the US should only be included in the share price when it's profitable.Your takeover speculation is not actually based on any real evidence.I do appreciate your viewpoint but I think it's wrong.Just hold GVC and in 5 years sell at 2500.CM

[srpactive] 07/12/2020 16:22

I topped up at 364 and 400p approx, why would anyone short
gvc then, being held back imho.

dyor

[merism] 07/12/2020 16:10

GVC is under valued, but it isn't being held back as part of some major conspiracy. Just make the most of it and top up at this price.

[wilco69] 07/12/2020 15:42

GeoComply weekend volumes declined 5% w/w after 4 weeks of gains, potentially due to a tough comp / high recent player losses.
Sports betting volumes declined (5)% w/w. GeoComply data show its online sports betting volumes (# of pings to confirm bettors' locations) decreased (5)% this past weekend (NFL Week 13) after NFL Week 12 increased 5% / NFL Week 11 increased 2% / NFL Week 10 increased 4% (incl. The Masters) / NFL Week 9 increased 3%. Excluding the new TN mkt (launched Week 8), the past five weekends declined (5)% / increased 5% / 1% / 3% / fell (2)%. Two factors may have negatively impacted this week's activity: 1) a tough comp with last weekend benefitting from boxing matches and likely a broader Thanksgiving weekend audience, and 2) high player losses for a few weeks now, which may have deterred betting. See loss reports from NFL Weeks 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, and last Monday's 'bad beat'. TN (6.8m population) txn's have impressed after launching 11/1, but declined (8)% to 1.5m, after the prior 3 weekends increased 10% / 14% / 10%, but was still 32% ahead of CO's (5.8m population, launched back on 5/1) 1.1m and is approaching IN (1.6m).

[wilco69] 07/12/2020 15:34

Every sell side analyst I see has a value for the JV in their price target, although they vary greatly which is why some have a 1600p target and some have 1100p.

Ultimately I think MGM will buy GVC, I don’t see a trade buyer as FLTR are already 3x levered, maybe private equity.

[wilco69] 07/12/2020 15:24

Yeah BetMGM is doing well, but they’re #3 in that market, I’d argue that owning 95% of the #1 is preferable to owning 50% of the #3. I don’t have the US breaking even on EBITDA until 2023, and don’t doubt it will be a very attractive asset.

And obviously Flutter operate in the UK, but their exposure to casino/slots is far smaller, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair are more sports betting focused, GVC is closer to 50/50 sports/casino.

I think that the HMRC case is still an overhang for some
Institutions as how do you value a potential unlimited fine.

In my SOTP I use a 10x EV/EBITDA multiple to 2022 online EBITDA and 4x for Retail, then if you use the same 10x 2023 revs that Flutter paid for FanDuel for the US then I get to about £16/shr, so the stock is undervalued but I can understand why Flutter has been a relative outperformer recently.

[srpactive] 07/12/2020 15:14

w69

What about the super figures Roar and mgm are achieving?

Seven percent the US side is going to dwarf that once it
gets going. Do Flutter operate in the UK?

[wilco69] 07/12/2020 15:09

Flutter is up because the deal to acquire that FanDuel stake was an excellent deal at a 40% discount to DraftKing, they now own 95% of the current US market leader. GVC is down as attention has switched to the impending Gambling Act review as a potential £2 max stake for online slots is a ~7% earnings hit.

[srpactive] 07/12/2020 14:51

Yes has been for years but they said it was due to
KA, so not that now, or it was the majority unregulated
markets, so not that now, so what oh forgot keeping it
down for the a bid to get through cheaply at 1600p maximum,
silly me.

[coxsmn] 07/12/2020 14:47

The share price is completely out of kilter here.