Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[brownie69] 14/11/2016 18:57

The coming dividend yield forecasts are IMHO slightly misleading. 50% of distributable reserves is being dividended but of course we dont yet have a fully integrated business. In 2018 we will thus divis should total circa 35p per share. which is 5.5% yield at 640p share price

[festario] 14/11/2016 18:05

Agreed SrP, 700 will soon be left behind for good.

[srpactive] 14/11/2016 17:21

680p very soon.

[velod] 14/11/2016 17:18

Well a magnificent show by the share price today. But from 2pm onwards the bears were back in force and had their way, steadily drawing the decisive 645/6/7p day's highs back down to close at 643p - still decisive but with the market tidying up, I came back to post this and uh-oh it had closed at 641p which is just a smidgen under the 642p resistance level.

. . . Still a good performance, but would have liked to see the share price well clear of the Bears clutches in readiness for a clean getaway tomorrow.

. . . Also now positively out of Oversold condition but only just clear - daylight clear nonetheless, proving again that it's an historic characteristic of GVC to only briefly flirt with an oversold condition.

. . . Tomorrow's another day as the saying goes, but would like to see the share price close with a back-kick to the Bears jaws to clear them from clinging on to the SP's ankles. Whatever, I'd happily settle for more of the same like today please.

[bahiflyer] 14/11/2016 13:36

So was the shorting of GVC aimed at weakening its position should it decide to counterbid for Amaya?
Beginning to make sense.

[trentendboy] 14/11/2016 11:55

GVC will steer clear of a bidding war.

Shame in a way but given US uncertainties, essential

[srpactive] 14/11/2016 11:42

Thank you, I am expecting a challenge here of around 680p
(100 day moving average ) very soon. Get me all technical.

dyor

regards

active

[mnomis] 14/11/2016 11:39

David Baazov (founder)

[srpactive] 14/11/2016 11:29

mnomis

From who?

tia

regards

active

[mnomis] 14/11/2016 11:21

New cash offer for Amaya (Pokerstars) @ 31% above Fri close ...

[jfishy55] 14/11/2016 11:03

velod,

Isn't Cenkos the GVC house NOMAD/broker?

You quote the RNS but you seem to want to pick the "good" bit out. Perhaps you should ask why Mr Alexander chose to cherry pick the Q3-15 results to compare against Q3-16 results? Nothing wrong with comparing similar quarters but is that what he normally does? Of course, he needs to put out an upbeat statement - see how the Special Dividend is talked about before the Trading Results - they are buried at the back with no mention of the decline in NGR!

As for being gloomy, here is how I invest:
- Research.
- Buy.
- Look for negatives.
- Sell.

Some people buy without doing research and then spend time looking for anything to confirm their bias in the share. They ignore negatives, look for anything to convince themselves it is OK (E.g. talking about the "MMs playing games" when a stock is a SETS stock for example, while the share price continues to decline).

But this is foolish in my mind. The moment a share is bought, one should be looking to sell it. The time to sell IMO is when negatives have been spotted & proved up that may point to a decline in the price. Initial research should also look for red flags to avoid buying a bad company.

So if I sound gloomy, I am not, I am merely looking for the reasons that might tell me to sell! Because selling and realising ones profits is the whole point is it not? Perhaps the decline in price is due to the fall in NGR, in which case it is a good idea I think to identify if it is time to get out and identify what the price should to pick a re-entry point should one wish to re-invest later.

Otherwise we catching falling knives!

I liked your Lord Of The Rings style post by the way :-)

[jfishy55] 14/11/2016 10:51

Tanglewood4, Popper Joe - well spotted, thanks!

So, yes projected yield should be doubled to 3.2% which is much better :-)
To get a more accurate figure we now need to project the FCF for FY17. Not sure how to do that but either way NGR needs to rise again.

Looking at the figures side-by-side for Q4 2013, I notice that Q3 is always a bit slow. Disappointing to see it negative for the first, hopefully we will see this reversed & then some in the next quarter showing it just be a blip.

Also, cost synergies from the bwin integration will not be reflected in NGR but I've yet to find any evidence of them being realised. Think we may have to wait until full year results to see that in the accounts though.

[velod] 14/11/2016 10:39

Jfishy, looking at things from your point of view here's the "worst" broker's analysis to support your viewpoint that I can find -

. . . Cenkos Securities leaves its 2016 forecasts unchanged, looking for a leap in pre-tax profits from €46.7m to €104.2m, yet notes 'clearly the risk is on the upside given the strong top-line momentum. We have conservatively left our 2017-19E forecasts unchanged reflecting ongoing potential regulatory and taxation headwinds.'

So profits for 2016 only going to be WELL OVER DOUBLE the previous year! Ooh should I be biting my nails to the quick with worry over profits only being well over double :) Lol!

. .. Their 2017-2019 forecasts are similarly excellent. So leaving excellent forecasts unchanged (just unchanged) is a rating 9 out of 10 FTSE250 companies would die for.

I hear what you're saying but I feel you're being too pessimistic in your concerns and not allowing GVC to be a little bit cyclical now and then in it's progress. Progress that ultimately should prove longer term good enough for promotion to the ultimate - the FTSE100!

[popper joe] 14/11/2016 10:25

Presumably the EUR71.6 million figure is for a 6 month period, there should be doubled for 12 months.

[tanglewood4] 14/11/2016 10:24

jfishy
In the paragraph where you quoted operational cash flow of circa 71mln euro for six months taken from rns results then you calculate divi yield which gives 1.5% . Now divi yield is calculated on yearly basis so you take figure for 6 months cash flow you have to multiply by 2 !!!!

[velod] 14/11/2016 10:17

Jfishy I'm a bit pushed for time so very quickly, perhaps you're analysis is a tad over gloomy about the NGR?

. . . In the last RNS update K. Alexander states that in the third quarter NGR was much improved over the preceeding 2nd quarter with continuing growth and that this 4th quarter had started strongly with NGR up 8% daily. That's where we are now up 8% per day.

- Here check this out -

. . . " ....strong third quarter trading, reporting 12% year-on-year growth in daily net gaming revenue (NGR) to €221.5m, 3% year-on-year growth in daily amounts wagered as well as a sports gross win margin of 10.5% in Q3, up from 9.3% a year ago. Alexander also states a positive start to Q4 trading, with daily NGR up 8% in the period to 31 October,"

How is that bad????

[jfishy55] 14/11/2016 10:08

Me? Which ones & why?

[kael] 14/11/2016 10:06

Double your figures.

[festario] 14/11/2016 09:56

Happy to have added at 623p and 636p this last 2 days.

[jfishy55] 14/11/2016 09:54

Investmentguru,
"Are you sure you're looking at the right company, Jfishy? Not a great attempt at deramping on your part, you must try harder..."

The best way to answer a deramper is with facts, figures & counter arguments - you provided none. As I pointed out, I am unhappy with my FCF figure - if you can dispute that in any way then I'd love ot hear it as that will affect the projected yield which will affect the share price.

I've gone through my previous post and highlighted my points & provided sources & my workings. I'd appreciate it if you, or anyone else, can highlight any mistakes or flaws.

>Dividend will be 50% of FCF.

Source: RNS 3/11/16
"the Group plans to adopt a dividend policy of distributing 50% of annualised free cash flow"

> The best figure I can come up with is 70m ish from a few months back.

Source: RNS 20/9/16 (Half year report)
"other than working capital movements which should be considered to be distorted by significant accruals and deferred payments at 31 December 2015, the "operational" cashflows on a pro forma basis for the six months ended 30 June 2016 were EUR71.6 million."

> 50% is 35m which is about 12c per share - around a 1.5% yield.

71,600,000 euros (RNS 20/9/16) * 50% (RNS 3/11/16) = 35,800,000 euros (calculator) / 292,301,563 shares in issue (RNS 1/11/16) = 0.12 euros per share (calculator).
0.12 euros = 0.10 GBP ( / 6.28 BGP share price (ADVFN) * 100 (to get a percentage) = 1.6% yield (calculator).

> Can anyone come up with a better figure for FCF going forward?

Well can anyone? It could make a huge difference to the yield & therefore the share price. If we could only have a discussion to try & figure out the correct figure for FY2017 we could know if now is the time to buy more or if the price will slide further...or we can accuse people of being liars & derampers for daring to deviate from the "Kenny is a god" mantra & think of vague theories to explain the share price decline.

> The bad trading statement is also a concern.

An opinion, perhaps it is not a concern to you but it is to me. If it is not a concern, why don't you point out why?

> Need to see that decline in NGR reversed sharpish

You think we don't need to reverse the decline or do you not think NGR has declined?
Source: RNS 3/11/16
Total NGR per day in EUR000s: Q3-16 2,407 Q2-16 2,485.
That's right, 78,000 euros per day decline in NGR from Q2 to Q3 2016.
The first time NGR has not increased quarter & quarter for going back to Q4 2013 (I didn't check further back than that).

> bad for sentiment and will also impact FCF.

An opinion, perhaps you think declining NGR is good for sentiment? Perhaps you don't think declining revenues will affect FCF. Perhaps you would be so good to discuss why you believe that?

[jfishy55] 14/11/2016 09:53

melody9999,

If you don't yet have me on filter then I won't be retracting my post. You accuse me of lying. Perhaps you should read the most recent RNS looking for negatives rather than anything that reinforces your desire to continue to hold?

If you did, you would notice this:

GVC RNS 3/11/16@0700
Total NGR per day in EUR000s:
Quarter 2 2016 2,485
Quarter 3 2016 2,407

That's right, 78,000 euros per day decline in NGR from Q2 to Q3 2016.
The first time NGR has not increased quarter & quarter for going back to Q4 2013 (I didn't check further back than that).

So, perhaps I should say...."melody9999 filtered pending his removal of post 23680. Either a genuine error or I do not want to read posters who just write untruths."

[trentendboy] 14/11/2016 08:41

Did Tate and Lyle surge past or sugar past?

[srpactive] 14/11/2016 08:27

Yes the big boys/girls have hammered the stocks they want using the
US election as an excuse, normal service will resume soon enough,
possibly today.

I remember tate and lyle surged got hammered then surged past the
previous high for no reason. This happening here and a few others.

dyor

regards

active

[brownie69] 14/11/2016 08:22

Love it Velod.

Early skirmishes going well. GVC bouncing nicely :-)