Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[pictureframe] 25/6/2021 15:34

3p didn't hold

[baddeal] 25/6/2021 08:19

As expected quite a chunk sitting with the placees. Will leave an overhang until these are moved on I suspect. Remains little in it for shareholders until the company can demonstrate the cashflow upside to shift balance from debt to equity imo.

[mudbath] 24/6/2021 20:56

Thanks for your input Exbroker.

My belief is that there will be much immediate interest in accumulating GMS shares leading to steady (or better) incremental increase in the share price

Interesting; however it plays out.

[exbroker] 24/6/2021 15:25

mudbath
I agree longer term.
There has been a big buyer on the board, they started at 3.05 and have driven the price up, there is at the moment a bid of 3.2 for 1 million showing in the market.
I expect the underwriters to get left with between 40 and 50% of the placing stock.
They may be happy with this who knows.
The other short term impediment to the price raising much from here is that Aberforth sold most of their stock at 3.2. The punters who dove in so readily may well be looking to flip the stock especially as the brokers buying that stock offer margin trading.
As I said on an earlier post Spreadex is not a name I associate with long term holders!

[mudbath] 24/6/2021 14:37

The MMs are willing to take any amount of GMS shares.
This bodes well for the future trajectory of the share price which is already showing signs of being ready to move upward.
Looking good,for holders.

[mudbath] 23/6/2021 12:02

Hi xxx

I was only quoting verbatim from the prospectus in connection with settlement dates,as this is a new investment for me;although I have followed the travails of GMS over the past four years.

The technical lowering of the share price,enabling me to purchase stock at and below 3.03 over the past couple of days looked like a no brainer opportunity.

We should now enjoy a positive news flow over the remainder of 2021 alongside(hopefully),a strengthening share price.

[mudbath] 22/6/2021 21:56

GULF MARINE SERVICES
======================
OUTLOOK and SUMMARY

Modern and flexible fleet, with estimated life expectancy of up to 40 years,
underpinned by secured backlog
Margin growth through ongoing cost savings and favourable market dynamics
Renegotiated bank deal supports deleveraging and optimisation of the balance sheet
New Board and team with proven experience and strong local links across core markets
Strong pipeline of tendering activity leads to confidence in outlook for the business and
significant improvement in EBITDA

[xxx] 22/6/2021 19:42

It will, though if one was going to take up the offer, I'm not sure they would sell around 3.1, to buy at 3 p, though people do surprise me.
I am also interested [concerned] to see who are the buyers.There has been substantial vol and yet no TR1. I am concerned about lax regulation.
I had to make the election on Friday 17/6, could I ask who you are with as I might need to look at changing brokers.

[mudbath] 22/6/2021 16:32

As June 24th (Thursday)is the latest time and date for receipt of completed Application Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer or settlement of relevant CREST instructions (as appropriate),it looks as though today will be the final day for existing GMS investors to sell into the market;should their intention be to secure funds to cover the cost of any application for that Open Offer stock.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts tomorrow.

[xxx] 21/6/2021 17:06

The great attraction here is that operational gearing works both ways. I estimate they will pay off $50m in debt this yr and that the prospect of the additional equity raise in 2022, will be waived as debt will be around $300m and EBITDA around $100m.

From their previou behahiour and statements, it seems likely that a bid will come this year or Seafox will try to reverse in their [much lower quality] interests.

The key issue is having enough non-Seafox aligned shareholders whounderstand the business and therefore interested in holding for the upside, not just the post offer pop to 4/5/6 p

[mudbath] 21/6/2021 16:38

$100 Oil Predictions Soar As Analysts Warn Of Supply Crisis
==============================================================
(Oil Price.com)

"Incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil supermajors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices, David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business on Wednesday.

Tawil has been very bullish on oil for some time, and thinks that the prices could hit $100 per barrel soon.

In the near term, oil prices have more room to rise, both from inflationary standpoint but also from demand standpoint, he told Fox Business.

Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said.

Moreover, supply from the oil supermajors could be also coming off, due to shareholder and environmental pressure."

Either Seafox bid or GMS ratchets up profits throughout any (prolonged ?) oil price surge.

Probably WIN WIN then, with the added bonus of being able to buy in size today at just 3.03p.

[xxx] 17/6/2021 13:11

Seafox, the chairman's other business, bid for the company last year in the teeth of the pandemic, so I amd sure they will be back sooner rather than later.
The earnings power of the company will be apparent at the interims, as rates and utilisation are picking up according to the company.
They earned $59m in adj ebitda last year when oil was flat on its back. and this year, interest will be @$16m rather than $30m last year.

[bmw30csl] 16/6/2021 13:30

I've take up the offer. At some stage another external party will bid for this.

[mudbath] 16/6/2021 09:27

BREAKING NEWS(16/06)...."Oil prices climb on huge inventory draw."

US inflation watch: Producer prices see record rise in May.

UK inflation jumps to 2.1% in May as clothes and fuel prices rise.

A continuance of these rising inflationary pressures might well cause analysts covering the future price of oil to raise their forecasts.

All good for GMS.

[pictureframe] 16/6/2021 07:47

Should be a solid floor at 3p imo

[candlestick1] 15/6/2021 23:52

Good luck mudbath, in the same boat (but slightly higher average). Be interesting to see what happens when the new 1.9/1 shares hit the market. Hopefully it helps form a base on or above 3p, similar to today. Got to be looking at 4.5-5p as a short term target but this could be so much more with a fair wind and some contract wins.

[mudbath] 15/6/2021 18:50

I was encouraged by the bullish sentiment of several recent postings here, especially wigwammer's conclusion that:-
"A prior management team has over leveraged into an oil downturn. That’s the mistake. Done and dusted. Since then, any management team is just rearranging deckchairs. The point for an investor looking today is - £33m market value, £141m tangible equity, and a gigantic £463m asset base being leveraged into an oil upturn. GLA :)"

The following site can be a simple way of monitoring that "upturn".



Today's GMS pricing,enabling one to buy in size at 3.17p and at significantly less, was seemingly very generous and for me,irresistible..

I'm in !

[exbroker] 15/6/2021 16:40

Spreadex Never a name you associate with long term holders.......

[mudbath] 14/6/2021 14:05

Spreadex have just moved to accepting closing trades only for GMS.

I have in the past found this to be a bullish indicator.

[gen_romer] 14/6/2021 11:07

I think they gave up on this

[wigwammer] 11/6/2021 16:56

It may be aberforth are (in part) funding their OO participation by selling their legacy shares at a premium to the OO price.

[trident5] 11/6/2021 13:09

Indeed.
They obviously don't want to put any more money in. Any good reason other than a distrust of management's intentions?

[wigwammer] 11/6/2021 12:39

Aberforth overhang cleared :)

[horndean eagle] 10/6/2021 19:14

I think aberforth are the big seller. they had 42m shares a few weeks ago. The prints around 3.2p cleared them out. Been told they are going to present the company to retail audience in due course. With the refinancing sorted out they should be able to talk up the companies prospects and no doubt get a following again. Bit odd shares are trading where they are given the company has not been a better position than it finds itself in for a very long time indeed.