Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[robroy2000] 24/3/2016 08:17

I share those concerns Imran and have written to investor relations requesting an explanation of the trading update issued on 21st March, with a reminder of certain obligations that must be fulfilled under listing rules. I am relieved to say that I received a swift response and was directed to the link below where a webcast presentation to analysts explains why they thought it necessary to issue the release. The presentation was also able to answer a number of further queries that I had and has to certain extent allayed some, if by no means all, of my concerns. Like others here I am prepared to take a long term view.

hxxp://www.gmsuae.com/investor-relations/results-and-presentations/

[imranawan] 23/3/2016 09:49

I've put in place a stop tintin - as I have some niggling doubts about the company. I'm also underwater a fair bit, but I've seen this in the past where cheap can get cheaper.

GLAH.

[tintin82] 23/3/2016 09:28

Good article in IC, buy rating. Huge increase in cashflow forecast next year. Overall my feelings are that this was a pretty robust set of results with little that can be suprising to anyone. Although underwater by a fair bit, not overly concerned for the long term. Happy to ride this out for now.

[immokalee] 22/3/2016 18:32

Possibly yesterday was put out to have a bit of a cushioning effect (rightly or wrongly)?

[rolo7] 22/3/2016 12:17

Dividends paid in 2013 pre ipo
$m(80,502)

[imranawan] 22/3/2016 10:48

I echo your thoughts robroy.

I'm unsure what prompted the update yesterday afternoon. I'm glad I haven't averaged down here, as given the uncertain outlook I would have compounded my misery. I thought the cash generation was very good, debt is a worry, but much of this is already in the price. I'd like to see the share price establish at around these levels, and some momentum in trading before adding anymore.

[robroy2000] 22/3/2016 10:19

Much to be concerned about but my expectations were so low that actually i'm relieved. Certainly the sick man of my portfolio but the patient is stable rather than critical. GMS is suffering from an ambitious expansion in a distressed sector and any recovery is obviously reliant on the sector as a whole. Needs careful monitoring.

I'm still puzzled by the update yesterday. Was this to fulfil any regulatory compliance prior to the results?

[knight10] 21/3/2016 22:08

The contract wasn't cancelled, there was a note in the Nov order backlog chart saying K3 had switched contracts with K7 due to client preferences. Which pre divi are you referring to?

[rolo7] 21/3/2016 20:02

yeah rig k3 page 16 up to 2018 q3
then rig k3 end q1 2016 avoid!

[rolo7] 21/3/2016 19:58

think this cancelled order was shown in November order book chart for one of the small rigs as it was listed in interim results but not in november so they have known for a while. red flag was the pre divi before floating ipo

[tintin82] 21/3/2016 18:49

Agreed, although not worried about termination of contract, the manner in which this was released the day before is not ideal. This should have been out weeks ago.

[robroy2000] 21/3/2016 17:01

Not happy. A lot of red flags here, esp the early contract termination. Timing of update this afternoon prior to results is cowardly. They should have manned up before now. Poor show from management. Could be a red card from me.

[imranawan] 21/3/2016 16:17

I'd appreciate others views about the TU issued this pm. When they refer to EPS being 25 to 30% lower in 2016 - I assume this is from the 2015 EPS base.

Agree that its goof for them to issue guidance on the debt and a time frame for peak debt. Disappointed in the fall in EBITDA and EPS but not unexpected given the price of oil and macro environment.

[tintin82] 21/3/2016 15:58

In line with my expectations. Glad for the guidance on the debt and a clear time frame for peak debt before it begins to fall. At least it looks like no nasty surprises tomorrow.

[imranawan] 15/3/2016 13:09

Agreed with the sentiment here guys am tempted to average down but given the share price, will hold off until the results are issued. Am underwater here, so don't want to compound the pain.

[robroy2000] 15/3/2016 10:16

Thanks tintin.

I hope it's a nice surprise and not a nasty one!

My concern is that the first place oil producers will look to cut costs is service providers like GMS. A squeeze on day rates would appear inevitable as you suggest. If they can do without the services GMS provides then it will be more severe than that, leaving GMS with diminishing revenues and a huge debt pile. A scenario that will lead to an unpleasant outcome.

If services are deemed essential and assist producers in cutting costs then GMS should be in a good place. This is what I bought into but I'm getting twitchy.

AIMV

[jakedog2] 15/3/2016 09:55

Have been on the sidelines since posting this in Nov.... still watching & waiting to re-invest.

Feel the mkt is pricing reduced contracts & reduced rates going forward with the large dept management being pivotal

On current data this is looking very,very cheap.

Things will hopefully be clearer after next week.

GLA holders


jakedog2 11 Nov'15 - 10:06 - 400 of 430 0 0 edit
Stop hit at the open

Mixed update.

However, things which stood out from a 'bear' perspective:

-change in tone from July results. First sign of negatives introduced, such a margin reductions / reduced contract pricing

- Ratio of 'firm' v 'options' contracts has deteriated from July. A sign of things to come ?

- Dept up & undrawn bank facilities reduced by 50% since July - cash call coming ?


Disappointed stop has been hit, but that's what they are therefore & take the emotion out of it.

Will continue to keep on watchlist & may revisit in the furture. GLA

[tintin82] 15/3/2016 08:53

I think we might be surprised. Remember the vast majority of GMS revenue comes from OPEX not CAPEX streams. The plunge in oil 'should' in theory not hurt them that bad. All those rigs still need services. Off course we can expect rates to have taken a hit, but to what extent remains to be seen. Although I am hopeful, the share price is telling me a different story!

[robroy2000] 15/3/2016 08:39

Judging by the performance of the share price over the last 6 months there appears to be little confidence in the company. The timing of the fleet expansion coinciding with the collapse in oil prices has been unfortunate to say the least. The results will need to be solid to reassure the market and in the current climate that's a big ask. However, if the company was in distress I would have expected some forward guidance before now. This time next week all will be revealed.

[seangwhite] 13/3/2016 13:16

Anyone wanting to guess how the results out on 22ND might effect the share price If the oil price has bottomed it could mark the same for the GMS share price.GLTA

[robroy2000] 11/3/2016 09:40

IEA says 'oil prices might have bottomed out. For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long dark tunnel.'

Let's hope so although use of the word 'might' and 'may' doesn't inspire confidence.

[robroy2000] 07/3/2016 16:18

High oil production should favour GMS as long as day rates for rigs remain consistent.

Is high debt and rapid capital expansion in an unfavourable sector a turn off? Certainly seems to be perceived that way and perception is everything.

If day rates not been negotiated down results might not be as bad as the market fear.

[tintin82] 07/3/2016 16:16

Time to top up, or time to worry. Lack of any change to guidance makes me think the former. Buf we shall know soon enough.

[robroy2000] 07/3/2016 16:12

Not benefiting from the recovery in oil price, in fact moving in the opposite direction.

[robroy2000] 07/3/2016 16:12

Not benefiting from the recovery in oil price, in fact moving in the opposite direction.