All very reasonable points. And whilst the share price reaction has been a little muted, a good volume has gone through already today. Hopefully that means that even if this good news doesn't translate into a short term bounce, in the long run clearing out the overhang is still a big positive from this recent run of good news |
 its flows / supply demand for the share. Fortunately the company will be able to fix that itself come Q3.
Tangentially I think theree might be a few burning fingers in a similar space that could mean money leaving oil services in the very broadest sense. Very much on my watch list are the tankers, specifically products, but also crude carriers. Scorpio (STNG) has almost halved off its highs, back to where it was in July 23, International Seaways (INSW) which carries products and crude is similar, DHT, much flatter and more range bound as it was never as leveraged.
These are not the same, ahem boat, by any means. Rates have declined and so have profit forecasts (not so for GMS) and a few months ago brokers were all strong sellers (not so for GMS), though they have rebounded recently to buys or strong buys. The sector runs modest gearing now, and pays out large covered dividends. They are all on my watch list and I'm just waiting just waiting for a break in momentum and for forecasts to stabilise. |
Bought in here this morning for the first time after the shares dipped. Looks like the overhang is lifting now?
Panmure Liberum have reiterated their Buy and 30p target price.
They summarise:
"Upgraded guidance for 2024 & 2025
GMS has issued revised Adj. EBITDA guidance for 2024 with it trading at the upper end of the previous guidance range of US$98m-100m and has increased its guidance for 2025 from US$92m-100m to US$100m–108m. Against this background the shares have declined 13% over the last month, yet 1) the last disclosed backlog stands at a record level of US$503m (in February it was US$373m), 2) deleveraging has accelerated in 2024, 3) new banking facilities enable options to expand the fleet and engage in share buybacks, 4) GMS has raised the potential of paying a dividend, and 5) new opportunities have emerged in European waters for Offshore Wind Farm maintenance. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p.
GMS continues to deliver
The company continues to perform well with revenue growth boosted by higher day rates. The significant reduction in net debt has materially reduced borrowing costs (US$31m in 2023 falling to an expected US$13m in 2026) and the recent re-finance gives the company scope to look at ways to expand the fleet (i.e. leasing). Demand for SESVs continues to be strong as evidenced by the rise in the company backlog which represents c3x FY25E revenues and indicates that the company’s financial performance looks secure in the coming years.
Vessel demand remains strong
Oil & Gas activity levels in the core MENA region remain high (GMS has no exposure to the UK economy), despite crude prices faltering as demand concerns continue to weigh on markets. We see the recent postponement of OPEC+ production increases having no negative impact on GMS given the high level of backlog with their vessels being utilised for (already) committed work programmes. In the event that OPEC+ does increase production, we see this as a positive with the increased activity driving demand higher." |
Muted reaction.
Could almost go negative on a forecast beat.
So this looks like the Seafox overhang continuing to play out in the market. You wouldn't expect this type of reaction when the price has already trended down like that.
Are we waiting for some whoppers to hit?
Show us the whoppers.
On the watchlist it goes.
All imo
DYOR |
They should rename themselves Tesla Marine Services and wax airily about their plans for a fleet of AI-enabled roboships.
It’s the only way to attract investor interest currently. |
Been in touch. Still expected by YE. |
I wonder if the lack of refinancing update is worrying the market. They said it would be wrapped up by year end but there hasn’t been confirmation. |
Beers, makes you wonder why it is ! |
Yep, looks like another $75-80 million free cash available, to reduce the debt or for other means, is baked into 2025.
That’s around 20% of the enterprise value - ridiculous. |
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/gulf-marine-services--gms/update-to-2024-and-2025-ebitda-guidance/8614890 |
It just cannot stay down here for much longer |
You are, for the most part, conversing with people here 2 years before Paul Scott mentioned it. The figures released by the company tell their own story. I am very surprised at the share price today, but I don't control any others in the market. I've been buying more on occasion in this period, though without increasing the proportion of my portfolio allocation. The influence of commentators here and elsewhere in the PI sphere is significantly overstated and diminishing all the time as the active investor base shrinks. Not only that but PS writes on Stockopedia, a product founded on the basis of factor investing. People that work off of tips have at best 5 figure portfolios and are utterly insignificant outside of micro cap stocks.
Specifically on the subject of factors, even the interims are well out of date, with net debt having decreased from $238.5mn end H1 to $221mn end Q3 with similar to come this Q. Come the FY report those numbers will be clean(er) with just the distortion from the fair value adjustment of warrants, assuming no more are converted this year distracting from the trading numbers. Probably, as that depends on where the share price ends up on the last trading day of the year.
Fed is likely to cut next week, but perhaps not at all in 2025. That's a modest cut to the interest bill in addtion to the lower interest rates on refinancing. Dollar is strong and as I have a sterling basis that adds to the attraction. |
I bet you are. Facts, GMS has been one of Paul Scott’s favourite stocks all year and each time he’s been talking it up and not once has he given it less than the top rating of ‘Green’ on Socko. He ramps the shares he owns, Plexus Holdings is another disaster of his and people still worship him don’t they |
Not at all, give me the facts. Price went down is that your fact? |
Clearly a member of the PS fan club. Facts speak for themselves |
Grow up you baby |
Another one of Paul Scott’s disastrous stock ramps |
I agree they are unlikely to become debt free as a level of gearing is appropriate, but for illustration's sake they could pay off the debt and run at 35%+ FCF yield with a PE of 4 (taking into account depreciation / replacement assets). Crazy cheap. |
I doubt the net debt will get near to 0 either - but that’s not the point.
The equity currently appears cheap (discounting 3 years future) even without the BoD seeking to optimise use of available resources (buybacks would seem a smart move at this price but check-back when there’s money available to allocate to them).
The market is currently (if you choose to exclude transient technical factors) pricing-in some combination of market downturn / BoD screw-up.
Neither is showing on the horizon.
elsa787811 Dec '24 - 17:04 - 2665 of 2673
With the present order book then in 3 years all of the debt would have been paid off and the EV would be a little over $200m assuming full warrant conversion. Let that sink in $100m Editda v $200m market cap. Bonkers.
thebd1111 Dec '24 - 17:08 - 2666 of 2673
I would caution just a touch regarding the debt payoff. |
I would caution just a touch regarding the debt payoff. I think a level of maintaining 1-1.5x is suitable…
I completely agree but nonetheless my calculation show the underlying potential of the business assuming they did not instigate any redistribution to shareholders.
They seem keener on a dividend than a buy back which is a shame.
In terms of the market we are all in the dark, though the diversification into the wind market can only be a positive. |
The fundamentals and valuation look excellent, but my one nagging concern is the cyclical nature of the oil business. I don't really know where we are in the cycle or if smart money is expecting a significant downturn in investment. There is no obvious sign of that and indeed GMS cites 'strong demand across all our vessels', but whenever I'm buying something that looks 50% undervalued I start to wonder what I'm missing! I've done a lot of work on the accounts and looked back at valuations in 2014-15 when the market was last buoyant and I can't see any reason that these don't/won't trade at 25-30p once technical factors are cleared and on continued robust news-flow, noting that we have refinancing, continued deleveraging and commercial updates likely to drop soon. My view is that on an asset valuation basis this NAV will rise from 25p today to 34p by the time the debt is fully repaid in 3.5 years because the free cash generation and debt repayment potential exceeds the depreciation cost significantly. On an earnings basis it traded at an average of 6.6x npat through 2014/15, which would put it at 22p based on FY25 forecasts. However the fundamentals and management look better today. Also worth noting that they traded around NAV during that period which would be 25p today and rising. Finally, they paid a 1%-1.5% divi back then, whereas the recently forward looking distribution policy outlined in August suggests that 20-30% of adjusted profit will be paid going forward, which would give a 5% divi with plenty of scope for increases (Greenwood think this will commence in 2026, but why wouldn't they start in 2025?). |
So theoretically BOA could aggressive short the pants of this, knowing when their warrants are exercised they can repay them having bought at 6p.
So I guess it would be useful to know who is involved re the warrants, and why there are none short over 0.5 |
Indeed the above link - but that doesn't track below 0.5% - such that you could have 5m shares shorted and it wouldn't be there. Not saying that means there ARE shorts out there. But it would be fiscally negligent NOT to short here as a warrant holder, I would argue, given there is no downside if the price rises, so you are locked into a gain instantly. |
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