Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 04/4/2024 09:18

Yes, good, a large enterprise value is what we want! Thanks for the broker update thebd11. My year end target price range remains 28-32p post the most recent contract RNS. Top end requires more of the same story with regards to incrementing contract rates through the year, as of course people will be buying 2025 and beyond, not 2024.

[jqb1] 04/4/2024 09:13

Happy to hold, upgrades on the way

[bubloo] 04/4/2024 08:02

LOOKS GOOD BUT ENTERPRISE VALUE IS STILL HIGH WITH LARGE DEBT. SOLD 755
% BUT MAY COME BACK LATER

[xamf] 04/4/2024 07:28

Fabulous results with significant debt reduction and increased revenue and profits. Can't see an eps figure.

[thebd11] 04/4/2024 07:27

Good set of results. Panmure (house) nudge TP up from 23p to 28p. "We now expect EBITDA of US$96m in 2024, up from US$92.4m and with lower net debt expectations as deleveraging continues leading to lower interest expense, we now forecast Adj. PBT of US$46m in 2024, up from US$39.8m."

[catsick] 04/4/2024 07:25

Excellent results and an excellent outlook for 2024 , Refinancing underway at what should be lower costs for longer term which will allow nice juicy dividends which are being highlighted...the business could probably cope with 20-30m usd of dividends while still paying down debt quickly..

[hpcg] 01/4/2024 14:13

I've certainly assumed all the warrants will be issued. Surely the banks can just sell them on? Why would they take them if they have no value. Also it is clearly pretty old and out of date, not least with respect to the latest rates RNS. It was still as useful read.

[baddeal] 31/3/2024 23:39

Interesting read but I don't follow logic on the warrants.

[richtea2517] 31/3/2024 16:51

Good articleBullish for sure

[xxx] 27/3/2024 06:55

The recovery yeasterday may relate to the announcement of a bid for a fellow quoted OSV company quoted in Australia and operating in Asia [MRM]
It received a cash bid from private equity at a claimed x7.7 current year EBITDA.[ using H1 earnings x2]

Though they have some govt work and subsea ops which look better quality, the vessels are less specialised. Applying that same multiple to us and using the midpoint guidance of $91m for 2024 gives an EV of $700.7m for GMS.

Not only is that a long way from here, but it is interesting to note that MMA shares jumped to a premium ie the bid is unlikely to be acceptedat this price. In addition the bidders plan to keep all the staff ie it is a bet on the sector, not synergies or cost cutting...

[richtea2517] 19/3/2024 15:51

AhNormal service resumed

[premium beeks] 18/3/2024 15:16

Nice pullback, will it test 19 again or bounce off 20?In the grand scheme of things if its re-rating and going to 40/50p then it's not even a question that needs answering

[bmw30csl] 18/3/2024 12:32

They are but they were fair reward for the risk. This was the best solution and shows what can be done when you don't just roll over for the banks.

[catsick] 18/3/2024 08:36

The banks are going to be loving those warrants they got, was a win win as the dilution from forcing the company to issue more shares at super low prices would have been massive compared to the 10% ish from the warrants

[hpcg] 18/3/2024 08:26

catsick - it was a paragraph echoing analyst targets and stating 1x NAV as targets with 25p for 2023 NAV and 29p for 2024. He's just using analyst reports rather than his own modelling. It wasn't the content as such, more the publicity.

[catsick] 18/3/2024 06:58

Interesting if you google simon thompson gms there us a free ic alpha report you can download on gms, 6 months ago simon was targeting 20p when it was at 9p ,I guess the latest target much higher....

[cestnous] 16/3/2024 09:03

Simon Thompson tipped again in IC this week fwiw

[catsick] 16/3/2024 02:00

Yes huge volume with two very big trades at 21.5 on the close , I was thinking profit taking at 20 would cap it for a while but that dam burst quickly, I think people doing the calculation to back out the new rig rates on this recent deal are realising we are guaranteed high profits and rapid reduction in debt to minimal amounts and a skyrocketing nav

[premium beeks] 15/3/2024 16:45

Price hike in auction and some chunky trades!Massively bought up today.

[blusteradjuster] 15/3/2024 16:34

Richtea,

Unless the operational story changes, there's no obvious reason that 5 won't become 6,7, ... as the perceived value continues to move from debt to equity (and that value continues to climb as perceived risk fades).

The final results (24th April last year) should hopefully include more insight into the BoDs attitude wrt debt-reduction/dividends/buybacks.

The switch to quarterly reporting might add a little confidence/attention but the relentless run-up in price since late June 2023 suggests it won't make a lot of difference.

[baddeal] 15/3/2024 16:27

Still more to come imo. I've had a position here for a while and took a load at the rights (having obviously taken the hot before) and then again at 5.5 so good to see this come good.

[wildchild] 15/3/2024 15:51

Richtea2517 : Its nice to know that people can still have good gains on stocks in these testing times. Well done.

[richtea2517] 15/3/2024 15:44

My first 5 bagger

[catsick] 15/3/2024 11:13

Fun to look at the posts around 1950 onwards a year ago when the shares were at 5p and couldn't see why they were not at 20p ..... happy to have scooped a load down there ...