Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ptmorris1] 21/5/2024 12:48

"Bosun" - Jeez, pongos .... LOL.

[petebreeze37] 21/5/2024 12:39

Thanks Boson, It looks like fair winds ahead.

[martyre] 21/5/2024 12:35

Now the share price is not struggling, can I assume the gap at £1.23 is no longer relevant?

[ptmorris1] 21/5/2024 12:34

SS, I dunno, Rachel Riley's isn't too shabby...

[tankerted] 21/5/2024 12:27

Hi Shipmates,
been keeping an eagle eye on the Botas KRG pier. Obviously no movements from there, or I'd have mentioned...
IMO plenty of tonnage in Med basin if required, 12 / 24 hrs steaming to get there. ( KRG Pier)
Plenty, (possibly more), smaller tanker movements around Dortyol (further East) and Mersin (further West).
IMO ideal for road tanker wagon (RTW) into storage and transhipment in smaller < 150,000 dwt ships. Still some strange movements in Gulf of Aqaba too..
Anyway, another day nearer too.
We're still standing and "The times they are a changin'".
GLA-TT

[0ili0] 21/5/2024 12:17

Any word from the lunch queue 🥨🍜 🗣️
28068;

[worldquant] 21/5/2024 12:03

F11 agreed.1 month to AGM........I now expect a bid prior..Agreed one hopefully..This buyback is pushing any acquirer + the new options rules are a huge incentive to move before they voted through.

[fairenough11] 21/5/2024 11:59

I do have thw gut feeling that multiple things could occur all at the same time here.We are now in that zone imo.

[shortsqueezer] 21/5/2024 11:55

Chart looks magnificent. Never seen such a beautiful double bottom :-)

[ozzmosiz] 21/5/2024 11:52

140 breached.I do love the smell of burnt BIGhotDOG

[0ili0] 21/5/2024 11:47

Is Chinese Steve a GS intern?
🇨🇳&#128118;📉

[habshan] 21/5/2024 11:25

Steep - "If it gets to less than 12 months to go; the Kurds will just decide to sit tight & do a new deal on the ITP with ????????"

The silence surrounding the refurbished pipeline that was supposedly going to cut out the Kurds is deafening. In my opinion neither the Kurds nor Turkey would allow it and Erdogan wouldn't be prepared to alienate the Kurds for a poxy 75kbpd from Kirkuk that would barely cover the bottom of the pipe.

Erdogan has indicated his stance regarding the Kurds :-

"While Iraq has been preparing to resume oil exports from Kirkuk to Turkey, Erdogan likely prefers resuming exports through the KRG's pipeline. Critics claim the agreement's political dimension is to maintain the KDP's power and continue its leaders' rule in the Kurdistan Region with Ankara's support."

And then 3 days ago during the visit of the US Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources Geoffrey R. Pyatt we get this:-

"It is clear to the United States, Turkey, and U.S. companies that Iraq is preventing the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan Region."

It seems to me that when Erdogan called in at Erbil last month after listening to the ICG all day he told Barzani to just sit tight and tough it out until the ITP agreement expires and unless the ICG cut out their nonsense in the meantime then in 16 months we can come to a new agreement where we can go back to me getting my discounted oil and you get to resume your exports.

And the Iraqi Government can lump it because I control their water.

When Erdogan smiles at the ICG all they can do is smile back.

[steephill cove] 21/5/2024 11:19

And, if they are buying Khormala oil at about $40 per barrel & Tawke oil at about $37 a barrel.

It wont be long before they realise Shaikan oil is just $29 per barrel & send the tanker trucks there as a priority instead to squeeze out even more margin ✅

GKP share price 📈💪

[shortsqueezer] 21/5/2024 11:19

Correct. APIKUR, the KRG hold many trump cards. Several of which could open up a can of worms and prove the illegitimacy of the Iraqi Supreme Court.

[steephill cove] 21/5/2024 11:13

The Kurds know their IOCs can remain solvent & that APIKUR is a problem for 🇮🇶 where they will absolutely NOT want to go to 👨‍b78;️⚖&#65039; to try & resolve it.

Its a Mexican 🇲🇽&#128299; standoff ✅

[steephill cove] 21/5/2024 10:57

The Kurds know their IOCs can remain solvent with a “hot oil demand”, where countries are buying it via tanker trucks & using it themselves or selling it on for a mark up into the 🌍🛢&#65039;market 😆

[steephill cove] 21/5/2024 10:53

#704782

It does sound good Habshan, so good that:-

IMHO Iraq 🇮🇶 Sudani & Ghani have less than 16 weeks to do a deal & reopen the ITP.

If it gets to less than 12 months to go; the Kurds will just decide to sit tight & do a new deal on the ITP with 🇹🇷&#127482;🇸7468;🇧Ӻ66;🇺

[nestoframpers] 21/5/2024 10:49

BTW that last PL payment we were I think producing 43k a day 60 k is 38 % more .so that's $ 56 Mn a month to GKP going forward .

[nestoframpers] 21/5/2024 10:40

The last pipeline payment we had was $20 Mn more Habshan. So we are $ 240 Mn short on 12 months . Half of that $ 240 Mn might have come to us as Divis . The ICG should be sued .




Shaikan Payment Update





Gulf Keystone confirms that a gross payment of $49.5 million ($38.8 million net to GKP) has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government ("KRG") for Shaikan crude oil sales during August 2022.

[worldquant] 21/5/2024 10:22

Disclosed positions in GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM ORD (GKP)
Notice: We no longer track disclosures after they drop below 0.5%. It is possible that the manager still holds a short position even if we are showing it as zero.

Fund % short change Date changed
Walleye Capital LLC 0.89% -0.06% 30 Apr 2024

[shortsqueezer] 21/5/2024 10:13

Does anyone have up to date record of the short positions?

[worldquant] 21/5/2024 10:11

150,000 at 139.9

[habshan] 21/5/2024 09:49

In the last ops update 8 days ago GKP demonstrated that they had been able to increase supply to keep pace with demand.

If they bring Sh-18 on stream the field is capable of producing up to around 60kbpd.

Yesterday a Kurdish trader said that he is currently buying Shaikan crude at $29 per barrel.

60k x 30 days x $29 x .36 = $18.8 million a month net to GKP.

With $6 million a month costs that works out at a potential $12.8 million a month profit.

Or $153 million a year.

Sounds pretty good to me.