Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[releasethekraken] 22/12/2021 07:09

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1472218937681190914?t=MBMfgbFZipuPrVN0SSSQMw&s=19Expect a bid before Christmas

[releasethekraken] 22/12/2021 07:08

VERY PossibleBID BEFORE CHRISTMASYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK

[nobull] 22/12/2021 06:58

"Could they actually get away with that?"

Yes, I think so. I've been in a company where they sat on bad news for about 6 months. The company was on AIM and kept changing Nomad. There was a trend in Nomad reputation from household name (Morgan Stanley?) to "never heard of", involving about 5 Nomad changes before the company couldn't find any Nomad willing to act for it, because of which it was forced to delist.

We only have a standard listing, which seems to mean the company shouldn't be thought of as being a benchmark for "preserving market integrity" when considering the London stock market.

Officer Digby, GKP only complies with the disclosure requirements on a voluntary basis, but more importantly, if production guidance doesn't need to change (i.e. SH-13 and SH-14 continue to be dusters), then there is no share price sensitive info to report compared with previous guidance given to the market. Harsh on investors, I know, but efficient in terms of not burdening directors with additional tasks if market integrity is maintained because the existing guidance is already priced in.

Kurdman, yes you correctly predicted no flow before the ops update and problems with SH-13. Well done. I don't recall GKP announcing that they had cased either well, something you maybe only do when you are sure the well will flow because of the huge expense involved. If they have cased these wells and they then don't flow, then that is a huge waste of money. It seems to me the analysts' forecasts include a successful outcome on SH-13 and SH-14 but that the market isn't pricing that in yet, and that's why we trade on a forward PE of 2.4, but there could be many other reasons for that too, reasons most, except Bigdog, won't want to hear.

According to my oil and gas book, acidation usually involves using HCl on CaCO3 (solid) and clearing a path through the formation so the oil can flow to the well head, a reaction, the products of which are CaCl2 (liquid), H2O and CO2. The only problem is the reaction is slow, so January might not be an easy deadline to hit. Fingers crossed they are successful.

[releasethekraken] 22/12/2021 05:27

VERY PossibleBID BEFORE CHRISTMASYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK

[releasethekraken] 22/12/2021 05:27

Nonsense 4 billion dollars absolute minimum that's around 14 quid a share :)Minimum..HTTPS://twitter.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1471844916020101124?s=21At least 12 bn dollars At least

[kurdman63] 22/12/2021 00:37

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

[officerdigby] 21/12/2021 23:56

I imply that maybe they can't physically do the work to get the well flowing when the other drill is occupying the pad. But I don't know that for sure.
If they can they have spent 3 months doing various things to fix the flow. Expecting it all to work in another month... Who knows go quiet for another 3 months then don't mention it. Could they actually get away with that?

On your completion before testing all that - can't help but think its sommat to do with the new rules - testing to tank perhaps the thought just by-pass testing.. Whoops.

I also never rated COO just listening its clear he thinks its all easy drill and can't miss etc. Gas no problem well do a gas cap drill, standard stuff. No gas cap. No problem treat gas, all simple stuff.. Appears lackadaisical to me but might be his style to investors. Looks like an idiot now as does CEO.

No idea on payments nobull. Either they are paid soon, or not for no reason, or not paid for a reason. Maybe the license is taken off or it's a clever ploy before some good news is realised a la Paul or farm in (of new experts LOL).

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 23:48

Lets see if you can get the next operational update RNS right.

[kurdman63] 21/12/2021 23:29

Nobull and Digby,

Please understand that what I gave you was 100% raw as it happened information.

Also note that they didn't tell you that SH13 was at TD before they shutdown for Covid.

Just because two wells go off the same pad doesn't mean they go in the same direction subsurface.

If you google pictures of folded strata in Kurdistan you will understand how unpredictable drilling can be. It's virtually impossible to understand that field.

What I posted was spot on and in plain English unlike the professionally written rosy RNS.

Beware of what your still not being told !

[nobull] 21/12/2021 23:04

OfficerDigby, your third para sounds like a good explanation for what might have happened (they wanted to please us, so resisted RNS-ing the problems and hoped they could solve them before the deadline? I don't know anything about oil and gas - yes, I think I get what gassing out is, and the jargon about "associated gas", and taking the top off a Coca Cola bottle and seeing the (associated?) gas come out of solution, but don't you think they wouldn't case a well and do whatever else they have to do (complete the well?), if it had no prospect of success? Casing seems an expensive step to take, so you don't do that unless you are sure to get it to flow, right, or am I wrong about that?

Yes, I think, with a single asset, that production risk going bad (e.g. a well gassing out and ceasing to produce like before) is something that goes with the territory (if one doesn't like that type of risk, one has to buy BP or Shell to dilute out the effect of production risk going bad on only one out of their many projects, I wonder?). And because production risk often has a knock-on effect on other risks e.g. "finance available at a reasonable price" risk, sometimes the share price has to price in multiple risks going bad all at once (each risk changing the eps forecast), causing quite big share price movements, down as the risks are priced in, and up if the risks come out of the share price, I wonder?

I remain concerned about only getting 9 payments this FY and about the company's lack of explanation, but I am hopeful that SH-13 and SH-14 will produce something. What do you think Officer Digby? Your views much appreciated.

Yes, I've read about the Cellicourt team. Now I wonder where those highly polished 52 word sentences come from in the Chairman's report, etc.

e.g.

Faced with these unprecedented challenges, the Company responded swiftly and decisively, protecting our people and those we work with, contributing to the welfare of the communities close to the Shaikan Field, and managing the cost base to ensure the financial health of the Company; all while maintaining safe and stable production operations.


They don't come better than that, do they? You don't need any sophisticated analysis here to spot a post written by multi avatar Paul, no matter what moniker he uses. The theme is always the same, and the knowledge content about GKP is very high compared with the newness of the moniker.

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 21:51

All fields require constant maintenance, this is not unusual, but if big things are going on that GKP are not informing the market about (when they should be) then we have an issue.

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 21:48

Correct... hence why I am interested in meeting him with my bag of cash.

[officerdigby] 21/12/2021 21:07

GC you have to give Kurdy his due for today until, what was it? end of Jan when S14 and S13 will allegedly flow.

He clearly knew what had happened on both wells. As do a lot of others (this is his point about GKP - plenty know much more than RNS's).

Well, It appears the company thought they could fix S13 before the update. It kind if makes sense that once they started drill S14 they couldn't do this work over on S13 because same pad (same space) maybe and maybe delay in chemicals - seen that elsewhere recently (even in Europe). Add then in the requirement to sidetrack S14 and you've got a recipe for all to backfire and nothing get done by the update date.

Kurdy, I believe he wrote he thought they might have resolved the issue at a certain point on S13. Whatever, either they GKP are lying and both wells are dusters or they are not, to be determined end of Jan.

Kurdy has also said S1? Has passed the bubble point a couple of times and they have play with it to stop it gassing. From what you have seen would you think they would try to hide this or not? (it seems like so right?) Perhaps the gas cap is forming there now and the production is being driven by the new cap or perhaps the well is close being shut in. No one knows. Or perhaps the new cap could be used for injection and solve.various issues in the field.

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 20:54

And what about all the other negative information you say the company has been purposefully hiding from the market? Going to keep that to yourself are you?

[releasethekraken] 21/12/2021 19:31

VERY PossibleBID BEFORE CHRISTMASYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK

[releasethekraken] 21/12/2021 19:31

Nonsense 4 billion dollars absolute minimum that's around 14 quid a share :)Minimum..HTTPS://twitter.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1471844916020101124?s=21At least 12 bn dollars At least

[bigdog5] 21/12/2021 19:21

Go back and read the posts that predicted what was happening goatsham. Then compare with what was RNS'd the other day. They're absolutely spot on correct not that I expect any of you fekkin morons to agree they are.

Its already been posted ffs. Read what was posted snowflake.

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 19:10

wheres Habshan these days?

[nestoframpers] 21/12/2021 18:33

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value
21-Dec-21 17:58:29 172.142 4,470 Unknown* 7,695 O
21-Dec-21 17:17:27 171.687 4,927 Unknown* 8,459 O
21-Dec-21 17:08:38 170.193 176 Unknown* 299.54 O
21-Dec-21 17:07:49 172.276 3,181 Unknown* 5,480 O
21-Dec-21 17:06:58 171.643 4,079 Unknown* 7,001 O
21-Dec-21 17:00:56 170.515 22,704 Unknown* 38.71k O
21-Dec-21 17:00:42 170.857 3,182 Unknown* 5,437 O
21-Dec-21 16:35:25 173.20 26,049 Buy* 45.12k UT

[releasethekraken] 21/12/2021 18:21

PossibleBID BEFORE CHRISTMASYOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK

[releasethekraken] 21/12/2021 18:20

Nonsense 4 billion dollars absolute minimum that's around 14 quid a share :)Minimum..HTTPS://twitter.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1471844916020101124?s=21At least 12 bn dollars At least

[releasethekraken] 21/12/2021 18:19

The head cases put some serious obfuscation in today

[goatcam] 21/12/2021 17:38

hahahah and there we have it. Proof both Kurdman and Bigdog know absolutely nothing... Just as we all thought. Shame as I'm sure some kid would have loved that £30k being donated to their go fund me page.... i'll save the donation for IF/WHEN GKP gets taken over instead.

[kurdman63] 21/12/2021 17:33

Play with yourself because it's back on filter time for you 🤡