Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 17/6/2018 14:15

It's very likely there will be a huge correction to the share price downwards due to the lack of progress. This will obviously be compounded by all the Political uncertainties and unknowns which history has proved could last for several months, imo.

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 13:20

Like clockwork It's Good Morning across the pond and CON🐶 Arrives
GOOD MORNING🇺7480;🐶
New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,518 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.

He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER.
FILL YER BOOTS

Make that 21,520 posts 😂😂😂😂 Go Figure ??🇺🇸😊

[bigdog5] 17/6/2018 13:17

So it would appear that the Political problems that have existed between Baghdad and Erbil for years show no signs of being resolved. Additional to that with no one party in control in Iraq Baghdad are going to have real issues getting all their parties to work together. Then on top of that the Kurds are divided themselves so that will put them in an even weaker position than they've ever been in when it comes to negotiating with Baghdad.

Is the above yet another reason why the company have made no progress as they don't know who their bosses will be should any of the above get even partially resolved? Will they still deal with Erbil or will Baghdad take control via Somo?
Where does that leave the PSC when its well known that Baghdad believe them to be illegal.

There's been some suggestions recently that all may not be good relationship wise with the MNR. Add that into all the above plus "sabre rattling" from the neighbours one has to question the statements of "clear path" and "hit the ground running". Especially when production has gone south big time and nothing has been done to rectify it. Aimo of course.

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 10:38

therealminotaur17 Jun '18 - 09:47 - 566758 of 566758 Edit
0 2 0
The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years!
However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera.

This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture.

So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers?

On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m.
Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will
be 2.5!!!Tiny!

The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers.

I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be.

On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15.

So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot.

However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view.
💰💰💰💰

=======
New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,519 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.

He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS
====



MSCI global small cap index

Gulf Keystone was promoted into this on May 29

💋💋💋💋8640;🚀Ԇ40;🚀

[hearts5] 17/6/2018 10:14

so to sum up, a massive sell.thanks potless.

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 09:47

The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years!
However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera.

This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture.

So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers?

On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m.
Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will
be 2.5!!!Tiny!

The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers.

I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be.

On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15.

So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot.

However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view.
💰💰💰💰

=======
New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,519 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.

He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS
=====
The MSCI World is a market cap weighted stock market index of 1,649[1] stocks from companies throughout the world. The components can be found here.[2] It is maintained by MSCI Inc., formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, and is used as a common benchmark for 'world' or 'global' stock funds intended to represent a broad cross-section of global markets.

Gulf Keystone was promoted into this on May 29

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 08:48

The MSCI World is a market cap weighted stock market index of 1,649[1] stocks from companies throughout the world. The components can be found here.[2] It is maintained by MSCI Inc., formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, and is used as a common benchmark for 'world' or 'global' stock funds intended to represent a broad cross-section of global markets.

Gulf Keystone was promoted into this on May 29

[beernut] 17/6/2018 08:33

Sorry should be disputed areas, article 140 mentioned , oil and gas and budget.

[beernut] 17/6/2018 08:27

Abadi wants high level meeting and article mentions to sort oil and gas, article 140 and budget.

Kurdish parties divided over how to extract Iraq from political morass
By Rudaw 10 hours ago
776 Views

Kurdish parties divided over how to extract Iraq from political morass
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced plans to hold a high-level meeting with all political parties after Eid to resolve the political deadlock after the fraud-riddled May 12 parliamentary election. Photo: Rudaw
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Kurdish parties are divided along the same fault lines in their stance on a recent initiative taken by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

Abadi has called for a major meeting to pull Iraq out of the political deadlock. The KDP and PUK have urged Kurdish parties to participate as one team, while the opposition parties say such a meeting will bear no fruit without a manual recount of the election.

"It is crucial for Kurds to take part in this meeting united and have an agenda," Khalid Shwani, a PUK leadership member, told Rudaw. "The agenda has to detail the past issues between Baghdad and Erbil, particularly the pending ones.”

Abadi announced plans to hold a high-level meeting with all political parties after Eid to resolve the political deadlock after the fraud-riddled May 12 parliamentary election.

The major issues existing between Erbil and Baghdad are the resolution of the disputed areas via Article 140, oil and gas, and the budget.

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 08:15

New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,519 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.

He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER.

FILL YER BOOTS

😎

[therealminotaur] 17/6/2018 06:35

New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,519 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.

He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER.

FILL YER BOOTS

[bigdog5] 16/6/2018 23:57

LOL.

It is amusing that "agreements" keep being brought up as if they're worth the paper they're written on. Hasn't history shown that agreements don't amount to much when a certain party to the agreements want something different?

Indeed how is the FDP doing? Is it filed away with other such plans as "hit the ground running" and "clear pathway"?

The only "clear pathway" is the one to the trough for those that can and do imo.

[oilman63] 16/6/2018 22:52

I think I currently have a better relationship with the Minister than the BoD do !

How's the new FDP doing lol.

Try taking a laxative it should help you with your problem.

Clueless muppet.

[oil_investor] 16/6/2018 21:56

therealminotaur: GKP and the MNR signed the agreement on 16 March 2016. The MNR are required to pay the TPI back-costs when the agreement is implemented. The 17 March 2016 RNS describes the situation.

...........

Agreement with the MNR

The Company has continued to progress the application of the terms of the Shaikan PSC by signing, on 16 March 2016, an Agreement with the MNR addressing the Company's position regarding the MNR's proposed exercise of the 20% Government Participation Option and the settlement of the associated past costs together with the reduction of the capacity building charge from 40% to 30% of the Group's profit oil, all to be the subject of an amendment agreement to the Shaikan PSC.

The reduction of 10% in the capacity building bonus is an important change that will bring the Shaikan PSC closer in line with the PSCs of our peers in Kurdistan and will improve the economic value of the Shaikan project to the Group.

Under the Agreement, the Company and the MNR agree, subject to an amendment agreement to the Shaikan PSC, to treat the Shaikan Government Participation Option of 20% as if validly exercised with effect from 1 August 2012 in favour of the MNR. As at 31 December 2015, the Group estimates unrecognised receivables from the MNR of $85 million net to GKP (30 June 2015: $76 million) for past costs associated with this Option. To address the past costs, the MNR committed to continue monthly top up payments of $15 million starting from the date of the Agreement until the full amount of the past costs is repaid in full. The receipt of these amounts is a significant element in unlocking further investment and realising the potential of our asset.

The Group previously disclosed a potential cash inflow of $90 million as at 30 June 2015 from the exercise of the Shaikan Third Party Interest ("TPI") Option. As part of the Agreement, the Company and the MNR have confirmed their intention to implement the First Amendment to Shaikan PSC dated 1 August 2010, in particular the provision regarding the assignment of the TPI, whereby the 15% TPI interest is split equally between the Government and Contractor (GKP and MOL on a pro rata basis) with the Government's 7.5% interest being fully carried by the Contractor. As a result of this arrangement, which will be the subject of an amendment agreement to the Shaikan PSC, the Company will increase its fully diluted Shaikan interest from 54.4% to 58% for working interest and to 64% for paying interest, however, the cash inflow from the TPI option will no longer be receivable.

[therealminotaur] 16/6/2018 21:34

The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years!
However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera.

This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture.

So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers?

On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m.
Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will
be 2.5!!!Tiny!

The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers.

I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be.

On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15.

So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot.

However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view.

[nestoframpers] 16/6/2018 19:36

I think 10 bill is a distressed sale price.

[therealminotaur] 16/6/2018 14:43

New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week
Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million

The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed.
SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE.
The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG
21,518 posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker"
"New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!!
HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment.
He's the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS

[bigdog5] 16/6/2018 14:35

"Clear path" LOL. You've been suckered yet again by rhetoric.

No pumps and they don't know if they will be successful. No well so they don't know if they will hit oil and flow. Then the well requires linking up to a production facility. Many unknowns with that lot. Then there's all the issues to fix as evidenced by the huge decrease in production.

Did he mean clear path to his boring oil company and the ever giving trough:-)

$10b, LOFL, yet another clueless sucker arrives in order to mislead.

I note loads more BS posts from the fake minotaur. ADVFN really need to check him out.

[10bn dollars] 16/6/2018 10:55

The end game.

[therealminotaur] 16/6/2018 10:33

Rover

Newtons law

To every action there will be an equal opposite reaction

Fill yer boots👢Ԁ98;😂