Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[broadford bay] 09/6/2018 17:03

oil_investor,

unlike you - and most of your ilk - when I make a mistake, and it's pointed out to me or I recognise it myself - I correct it and admit my error.

You still fail to address that huge disconnect.

I certainly made allusions - but your particular choice of words defines you.

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:55

Broadford Bay: you published some totally nonsensical calculations on iii recently about GKP’s income, which were all wrong. Did you look at the details of Marathon Oil before you posted just now?

You said that the deal agreed between the boards of Marathon Oil and ShaMaran Petroleum “stinks. Stinks to high heaven”.

You can take it up with Marathon and ShaMaran, if you think the deal “stinks to high heaven”.

Marathon and ShaMaran, and the Lundin Family, seem content with the deal. Indeed the President and CEO of ShaMaran says “This deal significantly strengthen’s the Company’s financial position, helps to pave the way for further new opportunities and gives ShaMaran a solid platform for building an exciting future!”

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:48

OK, here are some facts about Marathon Oil rather than allusions of some sort of fraud.

Marathon have made it explicitly clear that their focus is on their US assets. In March 2018 they sold their assets in Libya for $450 million cash as part of that policy, they had 199 million barrels of Reserves in Libya, so the price per barrel was $2.25 which some might not say was very much. But Marathon have explained that the cash sale represents 9 Times Marathon’s estimate of free cash flow from their Libyan assets. So the free cash was estimated at $50 million per annum, and they have sold on a multiplier of 9. Is that good, bad, or indifferent? They clearly think it’s a good move otherwise why do it?

Marathon’s US Net Production Q1 2018 was 269,000 bopd. Additional to that is International net production of 114,000 bopd (Equatirial Guinea, North Sea, Kurdistan and I think Libya). That’s a total Q1 Net Production of 383,000 bopd. Atrush is probably producing about 25,000 bopd so the 15% Marathon slice of that would be about 3,750 bopd. So that’s just under 1% of their total production. Sell that 1% for $60 million cash, and use the money elsewhere? That’s the sort of thing that people do.

[broadford bay] 09/6/2018 16:39

oil_investor,

your interpretation is both provocative and false - but that seems to be part of your "style", doesn't it?

You ignore the main point to which my posting drew attention: the very great disconnect between the "agreed" price and the inherent values.

2 Values:

#1 The contractual PSC entitlements, the extra 15%.
#2 The work done to date plus the capital investments made.

I'm sure MRO knocked heads with Abdullah for quite a time before accepting their fate.

Re. non-adherence to contractual terms - would you classify that as "fraud"?

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:27

Oh dear.

“Bigdog5”; continues to ignore the Triassic RNSs, the Triassic flowtest results, the Triassic Reserves and Resources Numbers from ERC Equipoise, CEO Jon Ferrier’s comments about the Triassic Condensate, and also the agreed Shaikan Field Development Plan.

If he is so concerned, he should surely contact GKP Chairman Jaap Huijskes and arrange a meeting with him.

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:22

Broadford Bay: you appear to be alleging some sort of fraud involving Marathon Oil. Are you?

If you look at Marathon, you will see that they have been losing money heavily. Their focus is their US assets. $60 million cash is very valuable in such circumstances. The alternative is not having that $60 million and potentially having to fund the next stages of capex at Atrush.

The Lundin Family seem content with the situation at Atrush. Unless you have hard evidence of fraud, the simplest explanation is simply that Marathon need cash and judged that $60 million was OK, in the strategic and tactical context. Small minority stakes can be problematic.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 15:47

More unknowns to consider. Why would the company not drill to the Triassic so as to blend the "alleged" better quality oil there with the Jurassic heavy? But it would seem they are willing to blend with the better quality oil from others.

If you can't prove it up it has little or zero value, innit.

[broadford bay] 09/6/2018 15:09

More questions to answer...

Why did Marathon only receive (accept?) $60M for the 15% increase?

Transfer of title in respect of the Contract entitlement or WI, seems clear enough - but what happened to Marathon's share of "the assets"; that capital already spent/invested in exploration, plant and equipment (and not yet returned to investors via the Cost Oil revenues)? All those wells, that shiny new PF, that nice new pipeline?
How much must that be worth?

Have they essentially written it off?
Is it perhaps in there at $50M, leaving just a nominal $10M for the 15%?
Did they try to sell to other parties?
Did they want out at any price?
Did Abdullah want them gone for being too hard-nosed and asking too many questions?
Did current FCPA investigations play any part in all of this?

It stinks.

The official statement reads:
"...an agreement to acquire a further 15% working interest in the Production Sharing Contract - Atrush Block, Kurdistan Region of Iraq dated 10th November 2007, as amended from time to time, (the "Atrush PSC") AND CERTAIN OTHER ASSETS from Marathon Oil KDV B.V. (the "Acquisition") for USD 60 million, SUBJECT TO FINAL CLOSING ADJUSTMENTS..."
(CAPS are mine)

It stinks.
It stinks to high heaven.

"It's all about the barrels!" - yeah, right.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 14:04

Meanwhile back in the real world GKP produce around 30k a day, down from 40k a day and a long way from Kozel's 150k by 2014.

Are we sure any of "his" numbers are now believable and they weren't used for troughing? I seem to recall Kozel was being paid a massive salary and huge bonuses based on OIP, which oddly enough climbed rather rapidly.

Should investors be asking whether the numbers of 13.7b or 25b or 50b are just BS?

One asset down from four. One zone down from four. Go figure.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 13:49

It would appear that the rampers desperation has hit new heights with posts being dragged up from 7/8 years ago.

However, the real issue to consider is have any of the predictions/analyses from 7/8 years ago been proved as valid? The answer is NO. Additional to that there's evidence that all is not good with problems of falling production, which is still to be addressed. Where's the Pathway to 55k a day?

The rampers overlook rather important points such as there's been no drills that produce from the Triassic. So what is really known about it, will it flow.

What do they know about the Permian apart from S7 was a costly disaster. Zero.

The Cretaceous notwithstanding the company's comments isn't worth spending on.

So that leaves just the Jurassic. Have they drilled deep, do they know what's there, will it flow easily, can they produce from there?

If you don't have proof it has little or zero value.

The share price has been hyped up on "clear pathway to 55k" and the fact that POO has risen greatly. P&D again?

sarah, when the minotaur is alleged to have stated that I would suggest he hadn't a clue about all the problems that were to come. DNO walked away from less than £1, go figure.

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:53

Was oil_investor ever a boxer?

"Bob & weave son, Bob and weave".

"Jab & block son, duck & dive"

"Bob, bob, bob, Bob"

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:48

We have moved on a year to 2012 LOFL!!


kiltless highlander9 Jun '18 - 09:05 - 566182 of 566197 Edit
0 8 0
Here we are again, tales of nonsense from 2011 (as predicted below), trying to be woven in to today's story!

Whatever happened to Scaramouche LOFL?

Now the PROVEN FALSE tales from 2011 are being repeated - WHY?

Talking about 20Blnbbls OIP again - WHY?

Talking about a feasible 100Blnbbls OIP - WHY??????? Surely, 3 of the 4 licences have been given up since.

What a comedy OR criminal show this is!



kiltless highlander - 29 May 2018 - 08:14:50 - 565015 of 566181 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP

It was sold on April 11th 2018 the latest fairy story!

All these ridiculous predictions have one thing in common, there are NO factual events surrounding them, each one is a fantasy, spurious snippets of information (mainly from years back) twisted to death to suit the fantasy stories of today, by the same old agents.

It really is laughable OR then again, is it criminal?



oil_investor9 Jun '18 - 08:21 - 566176 of 566188

By
scaramouche :-

GKP's potential 100 BILLION barrels across all 4 licences is surely rather too much for just ONE oil super-major and perhaps.... more than enough for TWO!

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:47

Here he goes again digging into the distant past, as if GKP's rotten history has any meaning to today's situation.

Fishybits - What ever happened to him?





oil_investor9 Jun '18 - 10:43 - 566195 of 566196

Below is another one from him, during the Pantomime. Courtesy of Bullster and Fishybits.


Bullster Thursday 13 December 2012
Posted by scaramouche on iii.

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:43

Either that, or they go into heavy desperate research mode oilman, and are not seen again for the rest of the day.

This is the price they pay, for having NO oil & gas qualifications.