Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.50p +0.19% 263.00p 937,939 16:35:06
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
264.00p 265.00p 265.50p 255.50p 260.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 127.62 10.41 4.56 54.3 603.4

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Date Time Title Posts
19/8/201821:07THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated)570,286
18/8/201818:25GKP takeover target176
17/8/201821:47GKP - On Balance - Moderated44,849
07/7/201822:21Bigdog5 is a Gullible Wanker Thread :o)8
10/6/201819:59Who do you think you are kidding Mr Watson?15,811

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DateSubject
19/8/2018
09:20
Gulf Keystone Daily Update: Gulf Keystone Petroleum is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GKP. The last closing price for Gulf Keystone was 262.50p.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has a 4 week average price of 255p and a 12 week average price of 177p.
The 1 year high share price is 285p while the 1 year low share price is currently 86.25p.
There are currently 229,429,566 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 752,993 shares. The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum is £603,399,758.58.
30/7/2018
14:03
bigdog5: "that this share price has increased by a factor of 3.3" It's up just over 200% from the restructure wipe out. What must be remembered is the share price is down from it's height of £4.60. Therefore, for comparison purposes the share price is now 2.6p. However, in order to make the Balance sheet look more robust, to be able to borrow funds (especially were it to be a placing) and for the BoD to reward themselves accordingly there was wipe out and consolidation. You can spin it anyway you like but there are the facts. Which of course makes it even more ludicrous that a share now costs £2.60 for the same amount of oil.
25/7/2018
23:47
margic: Yes it does make sense but not stuff I would rely on in terms of use. The price does show it can roll off, by that I mean off the highs at 273p, today was however another low test bar through 260p the share price once again did not like it under that price. Downside to today's low test as opposed to the last, is this gathered short momentum on the macD. But price action showed good strength again. Looking now to break the top of today's bar tomorrow then head towards and close towards the late 260's and that brings into play everything written in this chaps post. What he/she says with the tools they are using is correct/spot on. For me though, I now wanna see a nice green bar tomorrow, ideally not dipping to far under today's close and then look forward to the break of 273p end of this week early next which takes us to this persons target points I do 100% agree with 285-310p imo. If we get to there before the next payment, lovely. For me, key thing for anyone to notice on the technical view point what ever chart or tech tools you use or like, look at the monthly. Strong green bar, refusing to dip below last months high and serious space to move into. Whilst that momentum can turn short it's on the brink of bursting. Then go down to the weekly, down to the daily, and you'll see the picture starts to look favourable. Momentum is important but can also be deceiving. Whilst it's not singing on the daily chart, the monthly chart looks set to go through all highs, in terms of momentum. On the cusp as I write now. Once that happens, it's clear to see the price is significantly lagging behind. If we do drop below 255p it will be interesting to see where it stops and for how long. This technicals are far better suited as they stand are tailored to chasing the last monthly highs imo. It sounds a big move, but this is gkp, so assuming that's 450p roughly old or new whatever, when you consider the size of say the last 200 bars that's a major jump to make in reality, so logically that should only or can only really happen, even more so on aim on pretty major news. I'm not sure gkps plan to 55k is major news and to find a great funding source for that plan would be great great news definitely, but consider the share price doesn't really have much to stop it past that, you have to go back to way back when to find maybe 750-850p has a wall there, 500p could be a phycological stop point with breathers along the way. But for these moves to happen and they are certainly well available technically, you'd have to imagine that type of major news will sure blow those share price out of the water. So it's all aligning for me. Any major drop off now will quickly recover and the regular monthly payments will keep bumping the share price up towards this area. We have all seen aim stocks drop 60% in a flash to close 25-35% down for the day. Even if that were to happen, the share price will quickly be drawn back in the 225-260p range.None of the above will make sense to most normal people, I have a feeling you'll understand most of what I'm getting at! It's been a long day! Tomorrow could be the start of something great or the start of the first real pull back. I hope not because you'll have them all at you! Sometimes a share price needs to go down and see where the support is. Selling have been slightly ahead the last week or two imo, but there's 4 days left of this month, and if buyers move back into tomorrow we could be in for a great 2 weeks on this stock. A good end to the week would be over 273p imo, funny how that could be Friday. Gkp can react well on Monday mornings following Sunday rumours ;)Gl understanding this
18/7/2018
14:19
therealminotaur: 🐶🐶&#128054;🐶 8514;😂ԅ14;When retail were buying feverishly and Con 🐶 was ramping merrily the instis were dumping too retail - thoroughly stiffed --------- Mr Kozel, inset below, said the recent rise, which has seen the price climb from 128p at the end of October to 411p at close of play on Friday, was due to the "world waking up" to the vast oil reserves GKP possesses in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in Iraq. This increased share price values the company at around £3.5bn. Institutional investors' interests have been piqued by widespread speculation that bidders are circling GKP. US giant ExxonMobil, which has bet heavily on the region, has run the slide rule over the company, with rumours suggesting that Chinese giant, Sinopec, has also mulled an offer. A leading investor said that the huge level of recent interest in the shares was partly down to institutions looking to sweep up shares ahead of GKP joining, at least, the FTSE 250. More fund managers have looked to take shares once they realised that it was likely to be a FTSE 100 company. However, Mr Kozel said that he hoped that small private investors, who speculate feverishly about the company on online discussion forums and some of whom have risked their life-savings on GKP, would not be squeezed out by the big City firms. ----------/ Well they have been squeezed out 96% big city firms <4% retail So situation reversed NOW IS THE YIME TO LOAD UP Fill yer boots down here whilst you still can
18/7/2018
14:11
therealminotaur: When retail were buying feverishly and Con 🐶 was ramping merrily the instis were dumping too retail - thoroughly stiffed --------- Mr Kozel, inset below, said the recent rise, which has seen the price climb from 128p at the end of October to 411p at close of play on Friday, was due to the "world waking up" to the vast oil reserves GKP possesses in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in Iraq. This increased share price values the company at around £3.5bn. Institutional investors' interests have been piqued by widespread speculation that bidders are circling GKP. US giant ExxonMobil, which has bet heavily on the region, has run the slide rule over the company, with rumours suggesting that Chinese giant, Sinopec, has also mulled an offer. A leading investor said that the huge level of recent interest in the shares was partly down to institutions looking to sweep up shares ahead of GKP joining, at least, the FTSE 250. More fund managers have looked to take shares once they realised that it was likely to be a FTSE 100 company. However, Mr Kozel said that he hoped that small private investors, who speculate feverishly about the company on online discussion forums and some of whom have risked their life-savings on GKP, would not be squeezed out by the big City firms. ----------/ Well they have been squeezed out 96% big city firms <4% retail So situation reversed NOW IS THE YIME TO LOAD UP Fill yer boots down here whilst you still can🏖🏖;🏖
11/7/2018
15:44
therealminotaur: Load Newer Today 15:41 Price: 267.50 Lemming99 759 posts RE: Eddie... Hey Straycat, Welcome to the world of GKP. Seatbelts on please. Not that we should use the past for shares, but if you start at 107.9 and times by 1.16 (6 times) to simulate the average compound monthly rise (16%) in the share price this year you'll see the current trend. I've noticed that some months it's less than that, and other months it's more, but that's the average year to date. I've posted a few tables and graphs here: https://twitter.com/99Lemmings Why the increase in share price? GKP get $22 less than the OP in payment for their share of production. To calculate it, if OP is $78 and volume is 30,000 barrels a day it's as follows: 78-22= $56 30,000 x 0.58 (working interest) x 0.75 (share) x 56 = $730,800 daily $730,800 x 30.416 days in the month (on average) = $22,228,500 payment Last year GKP were paid $12m a month and increased bank balance by $4m to $6m a month (from memory). As such there's $10m more each month to play with at current OP. Strong Buy Reply to post
27/6/2018
08:17
oil_investor: fujairah: “kiltless highlsnder” says there were “red lights” between 2012 and 2016. But Chairman Simon Murray bought GKP shares in 2013, as did M&G/Capital Group nominated NED John Bell. And in that very year “The Minotaur” posted on iii a valuation of GKP of $10 billion. Did those three well-connected persons see the “red lights”? Or let us jump ahead a little to 2015. Less than three years ago, the following was posted. “Looks more like “green lights” rather than “red lights” to me... ........... Oilman63 - 11 Jul 2015 - 15:34:32 - 432252 of 567401 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP Here's a copy of the letter that the Mrs has just posted out to the action group. Although she's a little cheeky and uses some of my comments, I thought it would be fair for all to see.... Just one other point to make. Andrew Simon pretty much gave my Mrs his undivided attention before and after the AGM.... It must have been the dress that did it "It's a new dawn It's a new day.... and I'm feeling good! Hello Action Group, it's been awhile! Just giving you an update after I attended the GKP AGM in Paris on Thursday as I know few investors were able to attend. Have you ever woken up in the morning, pulled back the curtains, the sun is shining, the sky is blue and the smell in the air is sweet? That's how i'm going to describe my AGM experience, albeit the chirping birds might come along and softly coat me with something unpleasant - that's the GKP share price and while that is largely unpleasant right now I couldn't help but smile on Thursday as that day had been a long time coming! A couple of us were sat in the bar on Wednesday night when along came Phil Dimmock and Jon Ferrier. After awhile Jon and Phil came and sat with us. What a breath of fresh air! On first impressions Jon isn't far from being a model CEO. He has had many years dealing with Ashti and knows him very well. Knows the business inside out, was the person responsible for moving Maersk in to Kurdistan so knows the area well and delivered his Syrian project on time and on budget despite very difficult circumstances. I asked Jon if he had any other commitments and he stressed that Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be his only priority, his full time job and I believed he takes it very seriously and is willing to give it his full commitment. Jon intends to spend 1 week out of every month in Erbil to maintain his relationship in Kurdistan and to keep up to date and in touch with the business. Not a yacht or a blackberry to be seen! He expressed empathy for some of the positions shareholders found themselves in and without question plans to overhaul Investor Relations as well as to provide opportunities for shareholders to meet with Company Directors and Officials so that they can feel confident in the way the company is progressing and to feedback any concerns of their own that they may have. The over-arching message that came across was that this man has a conscience and as such recognises his responsibility to and has a respect for his shareholders. On the other hand that doesn't make him a push over by any stretch of the imagination. Both him and Sami are very focused, very clear, very switched-on and very driven. The Dynamic Duo. They both set out their very clear vision for the future, - explaining that every barrel of oil sold so far in 2015 has been paid for - that they continue to negotiate with the KRG regarding the outstanding money owed - that expansion plans can only be considered when arrears are paid (or a clear plan is in place showing how they will be paid) - that while the company is up for sale, they will not accept just any offer - ALL the staff that I spoke to at the AGM stressed that the asset is very good, our problems stem from a lack of payment - that they intend to wrap up sales negotiations soon so that serious interest can either make a realistic bid or if not, that the company can focus their energies directly back in to the company. - a board aligned with shareholders, holding stock of their own It was accepted that it would not be in the KRG's interest to see us fail, they too want to see Shaikan and GKP do well. From general chatter, I picked up that our peers do class Shaikan as World Class and I think it was announced on the Wednesday that Kurdistan were going ahead with selling their own oil. All in all, despite the bird poo (the share price) I couldn't help but feel optimistic and relieved that we have the makings of a team that are aligned with us, shareholders and I think / hope that this could be the start of something special! So a big THANK YOU to team SAG, The picture that was painted on Wednesday and Thursday was the vision I had hoped for when SAG started and although it's taken a long time - they do say the best things are worth waiting for! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After the AGM a few shareholders asked about SAG and whether they could join. Initially I said it was pretty much dormant now but on reflection I think it would be a good idea to resume. I don't think any sort of action will need to be taken now if Jon drives his team forward with the vision he has set out, but it would cause no harm for shareholders to get together with a united front and be ready to act should a need ever in the future arise. The Institutional Investors have increased their holdings recently, they have a greater say and are well organised (but also conscientious) The bondholders are organised - look how they negotiated the BER issue But yet, the retail investors, GKP's largest group of investors are haphazard. Instead of being motivated to influence any kind of positive change they vent their frustrations or make fun at each other over a bulletin board. Some private investors have invested considerable sums of money in to this stock, this is not a way to behave. If they were over charged £10 at a shop they would speak to the shop owner, and if they got nowhere, they'd write a letter - but they'd sort it out. Here people are sat on losses of tens, if not hundreds of thousands and the best they can do is vent at another shareholder or get annoyed. Time to refocus that energy in my opinion, get your energy, like your money well spent. GKP SAG have proved they can be effective, decisive and efficient (getting our resoluntion in in the short space of time we had with the challenges that we faced in getting the paperwork together was a massive acheivement by all involved. It proved dedication and commitment.) So rather than waste our energies, I have set up a new group for EVERYONE to join who wants to - gkpshareholdergroup.boards.net - I hope to see as many of you over there as possible. It's a new dawn for GKP Let's make a new dawn for GKP's shareholders. All views my own, memory the same. Please don't take any of the above as investment advice." ............... Oilman63 - 27 Aug 2015 - 09:24:39 - 441050 of 567403 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP Good morning It would seem that some here are hard to please. Last week and earlier this week it was doom and gloom and we were heading for the gap at 18p. Some also need reminding that in the last seven days the share price has been down to 20p, as I type this it's currently 30.50p. Just a minor little price rise. Some people said it was a bad idea to take on Nadhim, funny that the MNR's statement just happens to coincide with the release of our RNS this morning. Some also complained about Shaikhan crude not going in to the export market via the pipe and yet you've just been told that there is 20.000 barrels a day going in to that pipe. You've also been told that the other 20,000 barrels is making its way to market and we're being paid for it and people are quick to forget that last time the oil price dropped the MNR stopped us from selling in to the domestic market. Also people are quick to overlook the reduction in trucking costs. Some people complained about the CPR and there being no upgrade, and yet today Jon drops the significant bombshell of an upgrade being released by end of QTR 3. How many days is that away? And before that it's anticipated that we will get a payment from the KRG. All in all the outlook for the company according to some is bleak and Jon's new transparency policy mustn't be working but I think it's clear to see that some have the onset of selective blindness. Will the new CPR shock? I think it will. If we do not see a re-rate in the share price by the end of September I'll show my arris in Woolies window.
25/6/2018
19:36
therealminotaur: 😂😂&#128514; BIGDOG IS A THICK YANK. Employed to batter sentiment 24/7 US eastern time😂㈳4;😂 He is constantly here closing in on 22,000 postings because Gulf equity is worth a fortune in a trade sale. THAT SALE IS IMMINENT.BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS SOON AS YOU CAN ----SENTIMENT BASHERS ARE ACROSS ALL GKP FORUMS - they are A HUGE BUY SIGNAL!!! https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-k... 💵💵&#128181;💵. In the annual report in April the FD flagged he would look to optimise the company’s capital structure . Clearly it’s distorted. Hugely net cash positive and every month the cash pile grows. Why do companies repurchase stocks?There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, The first point is that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it. Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained. Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects. This company has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!! Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO: Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO! So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m … In my view expect the opposite of the massively dilutive d for e of July 2016 Expect an equity concentration of some form ( lots possible )that will send the stock 🚀🚀&#128640;🚀 8640; Then IMO expect a TAKEOVER as this pre sale concentration will maximise the owners profits.NOW RETAIL LONG SINCE DRIVEN OUT THE owners being 92% or so big banks/instis or whoever they holding stock for. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-keystone-petroleum.html BIGDOG IS A THICK YANK. Employed to batter sentiment 24/7 US eastern time😂㈳4;😂 He is constantly here closing in on 22,000 postings because Gulf equity is worth a fortune in a trade sale. THAT SALE IS IMMINENT.BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS SOON AS YOU CAN ----SENTIMENT BASHERS ARE ACROSS ALL GKP FORUMS - they are A HUGE BUY SIGNAL!!! https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-k... 😂😂&#128514; BIGDOG IS A THICK YANK. Employed to batter sentiment 24/7 US eastern time😂㈳4;😂 He is constantly here closing in on 22,000 postings because Gulf equity is worth a fortune in a trade sale. THAT SALE IS IMMINENT.BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS SOON AS YOU CAN ----SENTIMENT BASHERS ARE ACROSS ALL GKP FORUMS - they are A HUGE BUY SIGNAL!!! https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-k... 💵💵&#128181;💵. In the annual report in April the FD flagged he would look to optimise the company’s capital structure . Clearly it’s distorted. Hugely net cash positive and every month the cash pile grows. Why do companies repurchase stocks?There are four strong arguments in favour of buybacks, The first point is that if a company is generating surplus cash, it can return it to shareholders and let them decide what to do with it. Secondly, buybacks can work for investors depending whether they prefer to be taxed on a capital gain (buyback) or dividend (income). The third ‘pro’ is that investors who choose to retain their shares during a buyback programme will have an enhanced stake in the company and thus be entitled to a bigger share of future dividends, assuming the payout is maintained. Fourthly, buybacks imply a management team feels a company’s shares are undervalued. Buyback announcements often act as a positive share price catalyst, as they are viewed as a vote of confidence in a company’s near and long-term trading prospects. This company has MASSIVE free cash INCOME !!! Nostrum Oil borrowed $400m at 7% earlier this year.$28m per annum to finance $400m SO JUST AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT THEY COULD DO: Gulf a far better lending covenant so lesser interest rate IMO! So why not borrow $600m at 6% raise $600m and BUYBACK HALF THE COMPANY AT SAY 115m shares @ £4 a share? Only cost them $36m a year from their $160 m EBITDA - next year that will be $200m … In my view expect the opposite of the massively dilutive d for e of July 2016 Expect an equity concentration of some form ( lots possible )that will send the stock 🚀🚀&#128640;🚀 8640; Then IMO expect a TAKEOVER as this pre sale concentration will maximise the owners profits.NOW RETAIL LONG SINCE DRIVEN OUT THE owners being 92% or so big banks/instis or whoever they holding stock for. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-keystone-petroleum.html BIGDOG IS A THICK YANK. Employed to batter sentiment 24/7 US eastern time😂㈳4;😂 He is constantly here closing in on 22,000 postings because Gulf equity is worth a fortune in a trade sale. THAT SALE IS IMMINENT.BUY AS MANY AS YOU CAN AS SOON AS YOU CAN ----SENTIMENT BASHERS ARE ACROSS ALL GKP FORUMS - they are A HUGE BUY SIGNAL!!! https://www.cnbc.com/video/2013/09/19/were-not-talking-to-anyone-gulf-k...
24/6/2018
14:04
oil_investor: Bigdog5: so 27 August 2015 was 8 years ago, was it? I rather think that it wasn’t. Do you have any explanation for why “Oilman63̶1; was so positive on 27 August 2015 about GKP - and indeed upon the appointment of Nadhim Zahawi MP as GKP’s Chief Strategy Officer? By the way, do you have a link with Andonis Lemos, family friend of Alexandros Panayides and initial funder of the wretched “wrong in fact, and wrong in law” Pantomime? Oilman63 - 27 Aug 2015 - 09:24:39 - 441050 of 567181 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP Good morning It would seem that some here are hard to please. Last week and earlier this week it was doom and gloom and we were heading for the gap at 18p. Some also need reminding that in the last seven days the share price has been down to 20p, as I type this it's currently 30.50p. Just a minor little price rise. Some people said it was a bad idea to take on Nadhim, funny that the MNR's statement just happens to coincide with the release of our RNS this morning. Some also complained about Shaikhan crude not going in to the export market via the pipe and yet you've just been told that there is 20.000 barrels a day going in to that pipe. You've also been told that the other 20,000 barrels is making its way to market and we're being paid for it and people are quick to forget that last time the oil price dropped the MNR stopped us from selling in to the domestic market. Also people are quick to overlook the reduction in trucking costs. Some people complained about the CPR and there being no upgrade, and yet today Jon drops the significant bombshell of an upgrade being released by end of QTR 3. How many days is that away? And before that it's anticipated that we will get a payment from the KRG. All in all the outlook for the company according to some is bleak and Jon's new transparency policy mustn't be working but I think it's clear to see that some have the onset of selective blindness. Will the new CPR shock? I think it will. If we do not see a re-rate in the share price by the end of September I'll show my arris in Woolies window.
17/6/2018
18:47
therealminotaur: The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years! However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera. This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture. So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers? On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m. Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will be 2.5!!!Tiny! The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers. I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be. On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15. So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot. However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view. 💰💰&#128176;💰 ======= New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed. SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE. The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG 21,521posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker" "New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!! HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment. His constant presence is the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS 👢👢The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years! However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera. This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture. So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers? On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m. Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will be 2.5!!!Tiny! The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers. I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be. On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15. So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot. However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view. 💰💰&#128176;💰 ======= New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed. SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE. The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG 21,521posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker" "New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!! HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment. His constant presence is the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS 👢👢The company says that it has been in negotiations regards contract terms.For more than 2 years! However they use CPR valuation materials in presentations to Pareto conference audience ( that subject to the outcome agreed with the MNR in heads of terms in March 2016 !!!) that are implying this agreement already being in place. CPR based on 58% wi et cetera. This plus the longevity of ongoing discussions plus the appointment of Jaap Huijskes, plus the long and inexplicable delay in boosting production to minimum 55k ( with a net cost of say only just $70-80m) makes me believe that they the negotiations are on the bigger picture. So if they are negotiating a farm in or takeover what are the potential numbers? On an earnings basis if they do nothing regards CapEx/growth this year ,just keep producing ,by year end the EBITDA will be near enough $160m. Cash will be about $325-350m debt $100m and if the share price was £2 then the EV/EBITDA ratio will be 2.5!!!Tiny! The share price would have to rise to £10-12 to put this company into the average ev/EBITDA ratio to its peers. I think this is the minimum any trade sale would need to be. On a reserves basis given the base production infrastructure already in place , and the prospect of further reserve upside then using the existing CPR and not using Dcf as the asset lifetime is several decades then minimum £14-15. So the directors advised they had a fiduciary duty to consider approaches last September,and as it’s inconceivable that almost any serious oil producer in the world would not be interested ( near the lowest lift costs/barrel in the world) I expect it’s likely that some deal is afoot. However just running the numbers means if they don’t sell short term very soon they will be paying large dividends. So about as compelling investment case as is possible in my view. 💰💰&#128176;💰 ======= New fund buyer Acadian Global Equity SR1 added 76,000 last week Top 20 fund holders added over 273,000 last week their holding increased last week to over 5.7 million The con artists working all the blogs constantly are paid to erode holders faith and discourage new retail buyingThis "technique" enables the big funds and institutions to mop up retail sells of a few hundred or a few thousand - and build large stakes as cheaply as possible.When the company is sold which is inevitable and imminent THE FUNDS will make a fortune - and the readers here who sell up will have been royally stiffed. SO HOLD WHAT YOU HAVE AND BUY AS MANY MORE AS POSSIBLE. The best and biggest example is the thick yank..here ..posting as BIGDOG 21,521posts from the American "BS" "go figure" "sucker" "New York eastern time hours". CON DOG!!! HIS NAMES BIGDOG - he's a con artist posting constantly to batter retail sentiment. His constant presence is the biggest BUY SIGNAL FOR GKP EVER. FILL YER BOOTS 👢👢
18/5/2018
07:52
oil_investor: Perhaps the following analysis from July 2017 might be of interest to some? oil_investor11 Jul '17 - 09:06 - 543645 of 564399 Edit 0 23 4 Oh dear. A number of people on here are working themselves into a rage because they can't get a grip on what actually happened with GKP. So let's try to clarify things a bit. Todd Kozel obtained the Shaikan PSC thanks to the Texas Keystone connection. The acreage had originally been with DNO in a sort of "land grab" which the KRG had to rectify with acreage freed-up. RAK wanted to take GKP over, presumably including the Shaikan PSC which hadn't been put into GKP at that point. TK left the PSC floating loose - Lord Justice Christopher Clarke thought that made perfect sense - and the RAK takeover was not completed. Shaikan had a 75% to 80% chance of being a dud. This was explained in detail to Justice Clarke. The high chance of failure was due to no closure being identified on the Western flank - so even if the Jurassic were on the oil migration path, the oil might never have been trapped. What wasn't known was that there was a massive slip fault to the West, within the Sheikh Adi block which wasn't GKP's acreage at that time, and the Shaikan structure could retain oil. GKP tried to farm-down their 80% operating stake, to reduce risk. Presumably they would have gone down to about a 25% to 40% stake if another E&P had given them a free carry. But no deal could be done, and GKP had to fund their 80% themselves. The only reason why GKP has 58% today is that no farm-down deal was done: otherwise it would probably be half that, or less. Against all the odds, the well came in. A Jurassic gross pay interval of over 1000 metres was discovered, with c. 350 metres of net pay. The Jurassic oil was highly mobile under natural reservoir conditions. In addition there were huge volumes in the Cretaceous and in the Cretaceous flanks, and also a lot of light oil etc. in the Triassic. As the Appraisal wells were drilled, the volumes of Oil In Place increased, as independently assessed by Ryder Scott and Dynamic Global Advisors. Extensive specialist studies were also conducted on the fracture system, which was found to be very extensive. An increasing range of independent P90-P50-P10 figures were given, the last of which was 13.7 billion barrels P50 Oil In Place. But the P10 (and P5 etc) numbers were higher, and it has been said that oil in the Cretaceous flanks, which would probably not flow without the use of Enhanced Oil Recovery, were not included. Both John Gerstenlauer and TK expressed the view that there might be more than 13.7 billion barrels Oil In Place in total. Sophisticated pressure testing conducted at Shaikan-1 over a 3-month period indicated a Connected Volume in the Jurassic of c. 13 billion barrels: the KRG and the 20% operating partner MOL approved the release of that number in July 2013. The Recovery Factor was considered by GKP to be in the 20% to 35% range, something like that. Such a figure was broadly in line with international averages. Testing suggested that the Jurassic reservoir was showing dual-Porosity responses, which means that both the matrix and the fractures were releasing oil. The fractures were extensive, with a network of small cracks as well as millimetre- to centimetre-scale dissolution slots, where the cracks had been opened-up by natural acidic processes. GKP currently confirm a dual-Porosity system, and GKP have described the Jurassic as a gas-drive system. As the Jurassic matrix releases oil into the lower-pressure producing zones some of the dissolved gas comes out of solution and that provides natural reservoir drive. The GKP expectation in 2012-13 was that the Jurassic alone would potentially produce 440,000 bopd. That sort of volume would be super major territory. In his 2010 video interview with Proactive Investors shortly before Excalibur launched their ultimately ridiculed claim for 30% of the Shaikan asset, John Gerstenlauer made it pretty clear that the sale of GKP was the strategic intention, though he said the company would continue to operate as if it was going to carry on as operator. There had already been takeover rumours in the media at that point. The KRG approved a Field Development Plan, though JG publicly said there was a second FDP which described what would potentially happen if GKP were sold to a supermajor etc. It is possible that Spencer Freeman may have seen or been told something of that more ambitious FDP, because he alluded to it in one of his tweets before being silenced by Memery Crystal in the High Court with his tweets being deleted. Most of his tweets were saved. GKP, MOL and the KRG agreed to move forward with the more modest FDP and GKP decided to borrow the money to find the production facilities rather than to issue equity and dilute the shareholders. That decision was not opposed by the shareholders at the time, it seemed the sensible thing to do. Takeover rumours continued, and Harvey Rands of Memery Crystal had told Alex Panayides of Clifford Chance (who were acting for Excalibur Ventures) around 21 February 2012 about a massive Trip to China by GKP and its lawyers etc. which would be taking place in March 2012. Details of some of what HR told AP and Simon Picken QC can be found in the official Court transcript of the procedural hearing at which it was raised. Unsurprisingly perhaps, AP and share price were then better able to obtain the Trial funding for Excalibur presumably because the corporate Trip to China had been exposed? The revelation by HR concerning that Trip confirmed something of what Mark Leftly had published on 18 December 2011 in The Independent on Sunday. Going back a step, the share price had risen in early 2012, from a broadly established level of maybe 190p, to something above double that price. But it is now apparent that a number of persons including Harvey Rands, Todd Kozel and John Gerstenlauer had known about the Trip to China when the share price rose. That rise did not take place when Mark Leftly published his article: MikeyAdmin gave an analysis of that on iii not long afterwards and what he said is supported by evidence when one is looking back at the situation. Broadly, GKP was valued at that time at something around £1.5 billion, exceluding the early-2012 rise. So GKP was funded-up for the so-called Phase Zero which aimed at some 40,000 bopd from Shaikan. There was argument about Corporate Goverance; there was a suggestion in June 2013 that this Governance move was really to get new independent figures for the Shaikan volumetrics, because the existing figures were considered to be too closely associated with TK. Fresh figures would, it was suggested, increase confidence in the asset and hence lead to a better ultimate price. But the Corporate Governance issue was publicly presented as something to do with TK's remuneration. So the key issues were (a) defeating Excalibur, so as to get clean title, (b) establishing c. 40,000 bopd at Shaikan and (c) what Shaikan was worth in an M&A deal. This is why, if one looks at what the broker analysts were saying at the time, GKP was seen as very valuable. It took a lot longer to deal with Excalibur than had been expected. It was three years from the issue of the Claim in December 2010 to the award by Justice Clarke of clean title with no appeal on 13 December 2013. The Excalibur issue delayed the intended move to the Main Market. When the move to the Main Market finally came, the Good Corporate Governance board with Simon Murray as the Chairman was in place. SM invested significantly in GKP shares and so did John Bell, both doing so shortly before clean title with no appeal was awarded by Justice Clarke. They clearly thought in late 2013 that GKP was a good investment. What happened next contained eight main components: (a) Shaikan operations proceeded successfully, with the 40,000 bopd facilities being completed and the Jurassic reservoir being brought onto commercial production as planned; (b) something prevented GKP selling their 20% operating stake in the adjacent Akri-Bijeel oilfield. It is unclear what that was, although it is possible that potential purchasers saw some disappointing Akri-Bijeel results which were not in line with earlier positive expectations; (c) the non-sale of the Akri-Bijeel stake left GKP with some $350 million to $500 million less cash than expected, that being the amount they had publicly anticipated receiving from the sale; (d) the non-sale of the Akri- Bijeel stake led to the BER issue and certain hedge funds getting their Notes secure against the Shaikan asset. This apparently put GKP into a weak negotiating position in 2015-16 regarding the Restructuring; (e) the sudden rise of ISIS created massive negativity regarding the region; (f) the decision of the Saudis to increase their market share of world oil greatly reduced the oil price and GKP's income; (g) the KRG were unable to pay the back-costs owed to GKP, though they did make some inroads into the arrears and: (h) ERC Equipoise published a Competent Person's Report for Shaikan which was described by GKP as a "baseline", "conservative" and "as seen through the steely gaze of auditors". These so-called baseline numbers were lower than had been anticipated by the market, but they were still very substantial and Shaikan was described by Genel's Exploration Director as "second only to Kirkuk". ERCE had included quite considerable upside in the CPR and once the market had digested the CPR numbers, the negative effect upon the share price was not particularly large. So when Jon Ferrier joined GKP in June 2015 the share price was, in the circumstances, tolerable. JF appeared optimistic, and he was certainly positive about the revised CPR which was published about three months after he joined. By the time of the Restructuring announcement in July 2016 TK had been gone as the CEO for more than a year and had been gone as Chairman for fully two years. There was a new board in place with a new Chairman, a new CEO, a new CFO and new NEDs. The Restructuring reduced the existing equity stake to 5% but by participating in the Open Offer at the 20-for-9 entitlement level without going for an oversubscription allocation, that increased to 14.5%. Those qualifying shareholders who successfully oversubscribed ended up with more than that; it varies from case to case, but those who oversubscribed and who also bought more shares at the low prices actually experienced far less dilution than might appear to be the case. Though putting in more money was not something that everyone could, or would, do. Was the Restructuring handled professionally? No, because it was leaked. But the end result is that GKP has no net debt. With ISIS now effectively removed from the vicinity, one of the key negatives is gone. But the oil price is still an issue. World oil consumption is running at more than ten times the current discovery level, and has never been higher. The 100 million bopd consumption level is now close. GKP, MOL and the KRG are close to announcing the step-up plans to 55,000 bopd at Shaikan. The c. 850,000 bopd capacity 36-inch Feeder Pipeline which runs from Shaikan to the main export pipeline is now starting to carry oil from Atrush. Perhaps JF will do what he has said he would do, but which he hasn't so far done: restart communication with shareholders. And there are signs of increasing corporate activity involving the Kurdistan oil sector. The ultimate commercial value of Shaikan involves three key factors: (a) the oil price, (b) the level of Reserves and Resources and (c) the potential level of production with the associated capex and opex figures per flowing barrel
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