Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.75p -0.80% 93.25p 93.00p 93.50p 94.75p 93.00p 93.00p 80,424 16:35:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 157.4 -14.0 -25.0 - 213.94

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Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2017-08-17 15:29:0993.00470437.10AT
2017-08-17 15:19:5093.492,6572,484.09O
2017-08-17 15:13:2593.002,0001,860.00AT
2017-08-17 15:05:0193.1310,0009,313.00O
2017-08-17 14:58:3593.471,000934.65O
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Gulf Keystone (GKP) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
17/8/2017
09:20
Gulf Keystone Daily Update: Gulf Keystone Petroleum is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GKP. The last closing price for Gulf Keystone was 94p.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has a 4 week average price of 90p and a 12 week average price of 90p.
The 1 year high share price is 535p while the 1 year low share price is currently 90p.
There are currently 229,429,566 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 303,350 shares. The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum is £213,943,070.30.
16/8/2017
23:35
wildrider7: Oilman, TK has been gone for years now, and your story is full of holes how do you reconcile your post above with these ones? Oilman63 - 11 Jul 2015 - 15:34:32 - 432252 of 545120 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP Here's a copy of the letter that the Mrs has just posted out to the action group. Although she's a little cheeky and uses some of my comments, I thought it would be fair for all to see.... Just one other point to make. Andrew Simon pretty much gave my Mrs his undivided attention before and after the AGM.... It must have been the dress that did it "It's a new dawn It's a new day.... and I'm feeling good! Hello Action Group, it's been awhile! Just giving you an update after I attended the GKP AGM in Paris on Thursday as I know few investors were able to attend. Have you ever woken up in the morning, pulled back the curtains, the sun is shining, the sky is blue and the smell in the air is sweet? That's how i'm going to describe my AGM experience, albeit the chirping birds might come along and softly coat me with something unpleasant - that's the GKP share price and while that is largely unpleasant right now I couldn't help but smile on Thursday as that day had been a long time coming! A couple of us were sat in the bar on Wednesday night when along came Phil Dimmock and Jon Ferrier. After awhile Jon and Phil came and sat with us. What a breath of fresh air! On first impressions Jon isn't far from being a model CEO. He has had many years dealing with Ashti and knows him very well. Knows the business inside out, was the person responsible for moving Maersk in to Kurdistan so knows the area well and delivered his Syrian project on time and on budget despite very difficult circumstances. I asked Jon if he had any other commitments and he stressed that Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be his only priority, his full time job and I believed he takes it very seriously and is willing to give it his full commitment. Jon intends to spend 1 week out of every month in Erbil to maintain his relationship in Kurdistan and to keep up to date and in touch with the business. Not a yacht or a blackberry to be seen! He expressed empathy for some of the positions shareholders found themselves in and without question plans to overhaul Investor Relations as well as to provide opportunities for shareholders to meet with Company Directors and Officials so that they can feel confident in the way the company is progressing and to feedback any concerns of their own that they may have. The over-arching message that came across was that this man has a conscience and as such recognises his responsibility to and has a respect for his shareholders. On the other hand that doesn't make him a push over by any stretch of the imagination. Both him and Sami are very focused, very clear, very switched-on and very driven. The Dynamic Duo. They both set out their very clear vision for the future, - explaining that every barrel of oil sold so far in 2015 has been paid for - that they continue to negotiate with the KRG regarding the outstanding money owed - that expansion plans can only be considered when arrears are paid (or a clear plan is in place showing how they will be paid) - that while the company is up for sale, they will not accept just any offer - ALL the staff that I spoke to at the AGM stressed that the asset is very good, our problems stem from a lack of payment - that they intend to wrap up sales negotiations soon so that serious interest can either make a realistic bid or if not, that the company can focus their energies directly back in to the company. - a board aligned with shareholders, holding stock of their own It was accepted that it would not be in the KRG's interest to see us fail, they too want to see Shaikan and GKP do well. From general chatter, I picked up that our peers do class Shaikan as World Class and I think it was announced on the Wednesday that Kurdistan were going ahead with selling their own oil. All in all, despite the bird poo (the share price) I couldn't help but feel optimistic and relieved that we have the makings of a team that are aligned with us, shareholders and I think / hope that this could be the start of something special! So a big THANK YOU to team SAG, The picture that was painted on Wednesday and Thursday was the vision I had hoped for when SAG started and although it's taken a long time - they do say the best things are worth waiting for! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After the AGM a few shareholders asked about SAG and whether they could join. Initially I said it was pretty much dormant now but on reflection I think it would be a good idea to resume. I don't think any sort of action will need to be taken now if Jon drives his team forward with the vision he has set out, but it would cause no harm for shareholders to get together with a united front and be ready to act should a need ever in the future arise. The Institutional Investors have increased their holdings recently, they have a greater say and are well organised (but also conscientious) The bondholders are organised - look how they negotiated the BER issue But yet, the retail investors, GKP's largest group of investors are haphazard. Instead of being motivated to influence any kind of positive change they vent their frustrations or make fun at each other over a bulletin board. Some private investors have invested considerable sums of money in to this stock, this is not a way to behave. If they were over charged £10 at a shop they would speak to the shop owner, and if they got nowhere, they'd write a letter - but they'd sort it out. Here people are sat on losses of tens, if not hundreds of thousands and the best they can do is vent at another shareholder or get annoyed. Time to refocus that energy in my opinion, get your energy, like your money well spent. GKP SAG have proved they can be effective, decisive and efficient (getting our resoluntion in in the short space of time we had with the challenges that we faced in getting the paperwork together was a massive acheivement by all involved. It proved dedication and commitment.) So rather than waste our energies, I have set up a new group for EVERYONE to join who wants to - gkpshareholdergroup.boards.net - I hope to see as many of you over there as possible. It's a new dawn for GKP Let's make a new dawn for GKP's shareholders.
31/7/2017
19:44
shediak: For those on here (we know who they are), who believe that the only reason the share price goes down is because the oil has disappeared, nobody wants the shares and the company is a load of old rubbish. Here is a post from today courtesy of MickyAdmin explaining how, over the last week, an entity has succeeded in grinding down the share price in order to squeeze stock from the few remaining PIs. Either for themselves, or more probably, a Client. --------- Rescinded and Reported Trades. 50,000 @ 90,7581p . . . .LC . . . reported at 16:50:11 on the 28th July 100,000 @ 90.7689p . . .LC . . . reported at 16:51.02 on the 28th July 25,000 @ 90.7689p . . . .LC . . . reported at 16:51:33 on the 28th July LC – Cancellation of on-Exchange trade after date of publication 54,891 @ 90.8717p . . . . O trade timed at 15:52:00 on the 28th July 54,891 @ 91.0047p . . . . O trade timed at 15:52:00 on the 28th July 54,891 @ 90.9438p . . . . O trade timed at 15:52:00 on the 28th July 120,109 @ 90.9521p . . . OK . . . timed at 16:52:00 on the 28th July 54,891 @ 90.9163p . . . .O trade timed at 15:52:00 on the 28th July 120,109 @ 90.9521p . . . LC . . .timed at 16:52:00 on the 28th July . . recinded 120,109 @ 90.9163p . . . OK . . .timed at 16:52:00 on the 28th July . . price corrected & re-reported https://www.screencast.com/t/1fWVLFseyj1t In total 175,000 was bought @ 90.9163 correcting the four wrongly reported LC and O trades. Current Spread 92,75-----93.5 LP, 93.12p It would appear that there were Orders which needed filling so the share price was dropped to force some sellers into the market so the Orders could be filled. Now that the Orders have been filled and reported the share price is allowed is release. Book 203,395------260,883 . . . the Bid has increased & the Ask has been dropped from its earlier 318,970 . . . and the 24,444 @ 93.5p which was actually an Iceberged 193,388 @ 93.5p has been removed. So whoever the 193,388 @ 93.5p belonged to was responsible for working the share price down, and IMO it may have been SING (Singer Capital Market Makers Ltd)
22/7/2017
09:52
olieslim: Shediak 21 Jul '17 - 15:01 - 544277 of 544328 7 2 Interesting analysis from MickyAdmin on iii. Would explain the shenanigans with the share price lately. Peel Hunt and Cantor have both re-issued their buy recommendations. ---- "So we have Peel Hunt & Cantor Fitzgerald maintaining their Buy Recommendations and the share price is being supressed by the weight on the Ask 144,999----282,781 and we have a bloody huge 193,388 sat at 93.5p to stop the share price past 93.5 193,388 in old money is 19,338,800 Why suppress the share price with a weighty Ask volume, what effect will it have. The effect it will have is to put the bejeebers up those folks that hold their shares by Margined Products. A CFD user will pay 25% of the costs one GKP share, so at 100p they would pay 25p for one share with the CFD Company paying the remaining 75%, and if the Share goes up the CFD user gains the full 100% of Profit . . . . BUT . . . if the price goes down to they LOSE 100% of the loss When CFD users exit a stock, their Automatic Sell Market Orders which control the share price of said Stock drops, which has a waterfall effect as O Trade users follow suit. What the present Share Price should be telling you, is that because their is weight on the Ask squeezing and forcing the price down . . . . someone is Buying all the Sells . . . so Mr Someone is taking note of what Peel Hunt & Cantor Fitzgerald are saying. And with a bit of lateral thinking that Peel Hunt is GKP's Joint Broker he may well know something that we do not know. Wholesale Investors who are always the first to know or realise that something is coming cause falls . . . & . . . Private Investors who are always he last to know or realise about anything cause the rises when the news arrives. Mikey " lardner23 21 Jul '17 - 15:30 - 544282 of 544328 11 0 Sheddie, those broker notes are put out by the sell side after they've already advised their clients and also after their prop desks have made any moves. Go back and look at all the analysts' target prices in the last three or four years and count how many ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Deutsche is doing the same to TLW and CNE and the share price of each reacts correspondingly, that is they stick out as a pair moving apart from the rest of my watchlist (O&G). Not sure what is bugging TLW; CNE (faring well) is the Indian tax. Comparing this with GKP share price in the coming period coupled with the buy recommendations could be interesting and shed some light on whether Shediak or lardner23 have the better judgement (re: recommendations) in this instance. (I can't tell at the moment; catching up.)
21/7/2017
15:01
shediak: Interesting analysis from MickyAdmin on iii. Would explain the shenanigans with the share price lately. Peel Hunt and Cantor have both re-issued their buy recommendations. ---- "So we have Peel Hunt & Cantor Fitzgerald maintaining their Buy Recommendations and the share price is being supressed by the weight on the Ask 144,999----282,781 and we have a bloody huge 193,388 sat at 93.5p to stop the share price past 93.5 193,388 in old money is 19,338,800 Why suppress the share price with a weighty Ask volume, what effect will it have. The effect it will have is to put the bejeebers up those folks that hold their shares by Margined Products. A CFD user will pay 25% of the costs one GKP share, so at 100p they would pay 25p for one share with the CFD Company paying the remaining 75%, and if the Share goes up the CFD user gains the full 100% of Profit . . . . BUT . . . if the price goes down to they LOSE 100% of the loss When CFD users exit a stock, their Automatic Sell Market Orders which control the share price of said Stock drops, which has a waterfall effect as O Trade users follow suit. What the present Share Price should be telling you, is that because their is weight on the Ask squeezing and forcing the price down . . . . someone is Buying all the Sells . . . so Mr Someone is taking note of what Peel Hunt & Cantor Fitzgerald are saying. And with a bit of lateral thinking that Peel Hunt is GKP's Joint Broker he may well know something that we do not know. Wholesale Investors who are always the first to know or realise that something is coming cause falls . . . & . . . Private Investors who are always he last to know or realise about anything cause the rises when the news arrives. Mikey "
21/7/2017
11:15
cutthecagain: That's really got "the teams" goat hasn't it shed? I'll bet the paranoia is running at 100 miles an hour. "How can we twist it? How can we turn it?" "We've got to beat O63 somehow" Eating away at you like a falling GKP share price eats away at the old bank account. Day in, day out Pity
11/7/2017
11:34
nestoframpers: reply to Bob from iii 11:01 oil_investor this user is in your favourites listMikeyAdmin Hi Bob. Excellent summary, but you omitted a couple of things and one important fact. With no Entity coming to take GKP, no longer able to hold it off GKP had to announce the Declaration of Commercial Discovery for Shaikan on the 10th August 2012..... which committed GKP to requiring further Funding to pay for the Production Facilities and other work. GKP was already running low on Funds and the common talk around the forums at that time was NO to anymore dilution, with many calling for other methods like issuing Bonds, so we got the 1st Commercial Bond Offering on the 4th Oct 2012. But many PI's knew very little about Funding, Funders never lose. Issuing Shares is simple, a cut & dried method for successful Co's, as when Shares are Issued in exchange for money, those shares can be subsequently sold for a profit to PI's on the next good RNS. Such selling of shares taken for money happened after each of the 75p 140, and 140p Share Funding's. Which brings me to the "important fact" Many PI's just thought that Bonds were like shares, they were bought and if the Share Price went up the Bond Holders just sold or cashed in their Bonds on the Maturity Date, and if the Share Price went down then the Bond Holders lose. But, in real life it does not work like that, as "they who provide the money for Companies never lose" so can & will always get their Money or Pound of Flesh ..... so "they who provide money" (the new Major Holders) just "Shorted" the Share price down to the "bottom" in order to force GKP to capitulate and sell Shaikan to them, or as it was pushed through by Capital Investments, to Issue them with Shares in GKP which they can sell as and when they want to get their money back. But it doesn't look like it ends there, as it looks like some unknown unseen Entity, staying under the 0.5% Short Position reporting threshold, is still Shorting the Share Price down. Is it being done to take Shaikan or to just simply profit from Shorting.
11/7/2017
09:06
oil_investor: Oh dear. A number of people on here are working themselves into a rage because they can't get a grip on what actually happened with GKP. So let's try to clarify things a bit. Todd Kozel obtained the Shaikan PSC thanks to the Texas Keystone connection. The acreage had originally been with DNO in a sort of "land grab" which the KRG had to rectify with acreage freed-up. RAK wanted to take GKP over, presumably including the Shaikan PSC which hadn't been put into GKP at that point. TK left the PSC floating loose - Lord Justice Christopher Clarke thought that made perfect sense - and the RAK takeover was not completed. Shaikan had a 75% to 80% chance of being a dud. This was explained in detail to Justice Clarke. The high chance of failure was due to no closure being identified on the Western flank - so even if the Jurassic were on the oil migration path, the oil might never have been trapped. What wasn't known was that there was a massive slip fault to the West, within the Sheikh Adi block which wasn't GKP's acreage at that time, and the Shaikan structure could retain oil. GKP tried to farm-down their 80% operating stake, to reduce risk. Presumably they would have gone down to about a 25% to 40% stake if another E&P had given them a free carry. But no deal could be done, and GKP had to fund their 80% themselves. The only reason why GKP has 58% today is that no farm-down deal was done: otherwise it would probably be half that, or less. Against all the odds, the well came in. A Jurassic gross pay interval of over 1000 metres was discovered, with c. 350 metres of net pay. The Jurassic oil was highly mobile under natural reservoir conditions. In addition there were huge volumes in the Cretaceous and in the Cretaceous flanks, and also a lot of light oil etc. in the Triassic. As the Appraisal wells were drilled, the volumes of Oil In Place increased, as independently assessed by Ryder Scott and Dynamic Global Advisors. Extensive specialist studies were also conducted on the fracture system, which was found to be very extensive. An increasing range of independent P90-P50-P10 figures were given, the last of which was 13.7 billion barrels P50 Oil In Place. But the P10 (and P5 etc) numbers were higher, and it has been said that oil in the Cretaceous flanks, which would probably not flow without the use of Enhanced Oil Recovery, were not included. Both John Gerstenlauer and TK expressed the view that there might be more than 13.7 billion barrels Oil In Place in total. Sophisticated pressure testing conducted at Shaikan-1 over a 3-month period indicated a Connected Volume in the Jurassic of c. 13 billion barrels: the KRG and the 20% operating partner MOL approved the release of that number in July 2013. The Recovery Factor was considered by GKP to be in the 20% to 35% range, something like that. Such a figure was broadly in line with international averages. Testing suggested that the Jurassic reservoir was showing dual-Porosity responses, which means that both the matrix and the fractures were releasing oil. The fractures were extensive, with a network of small cracks as well as millimetre- to centimetre-scale dissolution slots, where the cracks had been opened-up by natural acidic processes. GKP currently confirm a dual-Porosity system, and GKP have described the Jurassic as a gas-drive system. As the Jurassic matrix releases oil into the lower-pressure producing zones some of the dissolved gas comes out of solution and that provides natural reservoir drive. The GKP expectation in 2012-13 was that the Jurassic alone would potentially produce 440,000 bopd. That sort of volume would be super major territory. In his 2010 video interview with Proactive Investors shortly before Excalibur launched their ultimately ridiculed claim for 30% of the Shaikan asset, John Gerstenlauer made it pretty clear that the sale of GKP was the strategic intention, though he said the company would continue to operate as if it was going to carry on as operator. There had already been takeover rumours in the media at that point. The KRG approved a Field Development Plan, though JG publicly said there was a second FDP which described what would potentially happen if GKP were sold to a supermajor etc. It is possible that Spencer Freeman may have seen or been told something of that more ambitious FDP, because he alluded to it in one of his tweets before being silenced by Memery Crystal in the High Court with his tweets being deleted. Most of his tweets were saved. GKP, MOL and the KRG agreed to move forward with the more modest FDP and GKP decided to borrow the money to find the production facilities rather than to issue equity and dilute the shareholders. That decision was not opposed by the shareholders at the time, it seemed the sensible thing to do. Takeover rumours continued, and Harvey Rands of Memery Crystal had told Alex Panayides of Clifford Chance (who were acting for Excalibur Ventures) around 21 February 2012 about a massive Trip to China by GKP and its lawyers etc. which would be taking place in March 2012. Details of some of what HR told AP and Simon Picken QC can be found in the official Court transcript of the procedural hearing at which it was raised. Unsurprisingly perhaps, AP and share price were then better able to obtain the Trial funding for Excalibur presumably because the corporate Trip to China had been exposed? The revelation by HR concerning that Trip confirmed something of what Mark Leftly had published on 18 December 2011 in The Independent on Sunday. Going back a step, the share price had risen in early 2012, from a broadly established level of maybe 190p, to something above double that price. But it is now apparent that a number of persons including Harvey Rands, Todd Kozel and John Gerstenlauer had known about the Trip to China when the share price rose. That rise did not take place when Mark Leftly published his article: MikeyAdmin gave an analysis of that on iii not long afterwards and what he said is supported by evidence when one is looking back at the situation. Broadly, GKP was valued at that time at something around £1.5 billion, exceluding the early-2012 rise. So GKP was funded-up for the so-called Phase Zero which aimed at some 40,000 bopd from Shaikan. There was argument about Corporate Goverance; there was a suggestion in June 2013 that this Governance move was really to get new independent figures for the Shaikan volumetrics, because the existing figures were considered to be too closely associated with TK. Fresh figures would, it was suggested, increase confidence in the asset and hence lead to a better ultimate price. But the Corporate Governance issue was publicly presented as something to do with TK's remuneration. So the key issues were (a) defeating Excalibur, so as to get clean title, (b) establishing c. 40,000 bopd at Shaikan and (c) what Shaikan was worth in an M&A deal. This is why, if one looks at what the broker analysts were saying at the time, GKP was seen as very valuable. It took a lot longer to deal with Excalibur than had been expected. It was three years from the issue of the Claim in December 2010 to the award by Justice Clarke of clean title with no appeal on 13 December 2013. The Excalibur issue delayed the intended move to the Main Market. When the move to the Main Market finally came, the Good Corporate Governance board with Simon Murray as the Chairman was in place. SM invested significantly in GKP shares and so did John Bell, both doing so shortly before clean title with no appeal was awarded by Justice Clarke. They clearly thought in late 2013 that GKP was a good investment. What happened next contained eight main components: (a) Shaikan operations proceeded successfully, with the 40,000 bopd facilities being completed and the Jurassic reservoir being brought onto commercial production as planned; (b) something prevented GKP selling their 20% operating stake in the adjacent Akri-Bijeel oilfield. It is unclear what that was, although it is possible that potential purchasers saw some disappointing Akri-Bijeel results which were not in line with earlier positive expectations; (c) the non-sale of the Akri-Bijeel stake left GKP with some $350 million to $500 million less cash than expected, that being the amount they had publicly anticipated receiving from the sale; (d) the non-sale of the Akri- Bijeel stake led to the BER issue and certain hedge funds getting their Notes secure against the Shaikan asset. This apparently put GKP into a weak negotiating position in 2015-16 regarding the Restructuring; (e) the sudden rise of ISIS created massive negativity regarding the region; (f) the decision of the Saudis to increase their market share of world oil greatly reduced the oil price and GKP's income; (g) the KRG were unable to pay the back-costs owed to GKP, though they did make some inroads into the arrears and: (h) ERC Equipoise published a Competent Person's Report for Shaikan which was described by GKP as a "baseline", "conservative" and "as seen through the steely gaze of auditors". These so-called baseline numbers were lower than had been anticipated by the market, but they were still very substantial and Shaikan was described by Genel's Exploration Director as "second only to Kirkuk". ERCE had included quite considerable upside in the CPR and once the market had digested the CPR numbers, the negative effect upon the share price was not particularly large. So when Jon Ferrier joined GKP in June 2015 the share price was, in the circumstances, tolerable. JF appeared optimistic, and he was certainly positive about the revised CPR which was published about three months after he joined. By the time of the Restructuring announcement in July 2016 TK had been gone as the CEO for more than a year and had been gone as Chairman for fully two years. There was a new board in place with a new Chairman, a new CEO, a new CFO and new NEDs. The Restructuring reduced the existing equity stake to 5% but by participating in the Open Offer at the 20-for-9 entitlement level without going for an oversubscription allocation, that increased to 14.5%. Those qualifying shareholders who successfully oversubscribed ended up with more than that; it varies from case to case, but those who oversubscribed and who also bought more shares at the low prices actually experienced far less dilution than might appear to be the case. Though putting in more money was not something that everyone could, or would, do. Was the Restructuring handled professionally? No, because it was leaked. But the end result is that GKP has no net debt. With ISIS now effectively removed from the vicinity, one of the key negatives is gone. But the oil price is still an issue. World oil consumption is running at more than ten times the current discovery level, and has never been higher. The 100 million bopd consumption level is now close. GKP, MOL and the KRG are close to announcing the step-up plans to 55,000 bopd at Shaikan. The c. 850,000 bopd capacity 36-inch Feeder Pipeline which runs from Shaikan to the main export pipeline is now starting to carry oil from Atrush. Perhaps JF will do what he has said he would do, but which he hasn't so far done: restart communication with shareholders. And there are signs of increasing corporate activity involving the Kurdistan oil sector. The ultimate commercial value of Shaikan involves three key factors: (a) the oil price, (b) the level of Reserves and Resources and (c) the potential level of production with the associated capex and opex figures per flowing barrel.
20/6/2017
08:42
cutthecagain: WR you seem to correlate the share price / shareholder destruction with the removal of Todd with a tunnel vision that if Todd was here the share price wouldn't be where it is and shareholders wouldn't have been diluted. You fail to acknowledge the comparisons with Genel whose shareholders have seen a loss of c90% of the share price since the good old days, WZR, and dare it be said, Afren. The future of GKP was set when in the good times the company took out disproportionate amounts of debt to pay for operations and remunerations that made headline news for what was then, a loss making company. The company had to repay that debt regardless of who was in charge. You can not be absolute that had Todd stayed that GKP wouldn't have had a demise dissimilar to Afren. The focus you have on the share price destruction being the responsibility of "SHAG" is massively flawed.
06/6/2017
09:23
oil_investor: Oh dear. Meltdown, eh? lol It's a new day.... and I'm feeling good! Hello Action Group, it's been awhile! Just giving you an update after I attended the GKP AGM in Paris on Thursday as I know few investors were able to attend. Have you ever woken up in the morning, pulled back the curtains, the sun is shining, the sky is blue and the smell in the air is sweet? That's how i'm going to describe my AGM experience, albeit the chirping birds might come along and softly coat me with something unpleasant - that's the GKP share price and while that is largely unpleasant right now I couldn't help but smile on Thursday as that day had been a long time coming! A couple of us were sat in the bar on Wednesday night when along came Phil Dimmock and Jon Ferrier. After awhile Jon and Phil came and sat with us. What a breath of fresh air! On first impressions Jon isn't far from being a model CEO. He has had many years dealing with Ashti and knows him very well. Knows the business inside out, was the person responsible for moving Maersk in to Kurdistan so knows the area well and delivered his Syrian project on time and on budget despite very difficult circumstances. I asked Jon if he had any other commitments and he stressed that Gulf Keystone Petroleum will be his only priority, his full time job and I believed he takes it very seriously and is willing to give it his full commitment. Jon intends to spend 1 week out of every month in Erbil to maintain his relationship in Kurdistan and to keep up to date and in touch with the business. Not a yacht or a blackberry to be seen! He expressed empathy for some of the positions shareholders found themselves in and without question plans to overhaul Investor Relations as well as to provide opportunities for shareholders to meet with Company Directors and Officials so that they can feel confident in the way the company is progressing and to feedback any concerns of their own that they may have. The over-arching message that came across was that this man has a conscience and as such recognises his responsibility to and has a respect for his shareholders. On the other hand that doesn't make him a push over by any stretch of the imagination. Both him and Sami are very focused, very clear, very switched-on and very driven. The Dynamic Duo. They both set out their very clear vision for the future, - explaining that every barrel of oil sold so far in 2015 has been paid for - that they continue to negotiate with the KRG regarding the outstanding money owed - that expansion plans can only be considered when arrears are paid (or a clear plan is in place showing how they will be paid) - that while the company is up for sale, they will not accept just any offer - ALL the staff that I spoke to at the AGM stressed that the asset is very good, our problems stem from a lack of payment - that they intend to wrap up sales negotiations soon so that serious interest can either make a realistic bid or if not, that the company can focus their energies directly back in to the company. - a board aligned with shareholders - holding stock of their own It was accepted that it would not be in the KRG's interest to see us fail, they too want to see Shaikan and GKP do well. From general chatter, I picked up that our peers do class Shaikan as World Class and I think it was announced on the Wednesday that Kurdistan were going ahead with selling their own oil. All in all, despite the bird poo (the share price) I couldn't help but feel optimistic and relieved that we have the makings of a team that are aligned with us, shareholders and I think / hope that this could be the start of something special! So a big THANK YOU to team SAG, The picture that was painted on Wednesday and Thursday was the vision I had hoped for when SAG started and although it's taken a long time - they do say the best things are worth waiting for!
29/3/2017
14:05
walval: From CCC on iii: I just want to pencil in a possible ongoing scenario that you might or might not already have in your scope. Facts: GKP have made a major restructuring effectively putting the former holders of bonds and notes in control of the company. Agreement with holders of bonds and notes was reached in July 2016. DNO bid for 300 MUSD was rebuffed by GKP board. Restructuring completed in October 2016. DNO lowers their valuation of GKP after the restructuring. After the restructuring everything is practically in a stand still, except that the asset is producing, oil is delivered and money is coming in. No decisions on investments or route forward. Former holders of bonds and notes are still clinging on to their shares, which on surface is quite surprising, since they invested in bonds and notes, not in shares. Rumour in Dec 2016 of Sinopec being interested. Have not been substantiated yet. GKP Share is traded within a narrow window of valuation since beginning of 2017. PSC amendment is still not signed although agreement was reached more than a year ago. Tony Peart has left GKP Anastasia Vvedenskaya has left GKP John Stafford has left GKP Stuart Catterall was announced as new COO in January. Conclusion: There is another step, currently not disclosed, in the restructuring deal to be expected. The step is likely to either relate to a take over of GKP as a whole or a farm out of some of GKPs share of Shaikan. Additional facts to consider: The Lundin Family is the major shareholder in ShaMaran Petroleum with 20% of Atrush PSC and is very well acquainted with Kurdistan oil environment and the Shaikan area and geology. May 2016 The Lundin family created a new holding company. Nemesia SARL. June 2016 Nemesia "bought" the Lundin Family holdings in the diamond company Lucara Diamond, a holding that at the time was worth about 270 million CAD. October 2016 Garrett Soden, a long time Lundin Group Director, was elected to the board of Gulf Keystone together with Dave Thomas (seasoned and experienced from the Afren caretaker board). December 2016 Nemesia "bought" the Lundin Family holdings in the oil company Lundin Petroleum, a holding worth about 15 billion SEK, equal to 2.25 billion CAD. January 2016 Nemesia "bought" the Lundin Family holdings in the mining company Lundin Mining, a holding worth about 770 million CAD. Bringing the total value of the Nemesia portfolio to 3.3 billion CAD. Nemesia is 100% owned by the Lundin holding companies Lorito and Zebra. February 2016 Lundin Petroleum announces a spin-out of their international assets in France, Malaysia and Netherlands into a new company called International Petroleum Corporation (IPC). IPC will have a free cash flow of about 5-10 MUSD/month from the original assets, zero debt, good bank relations and a 100 MUSD credit facility already in place. IPC strategy is to use free cash flow and financing to acquire early life producing or slowly declining assets in stable jurisdictions to grow the company. Lundin Petroleum shareholders will get shares in IPC. Nemesia with 25% of the shares in the new company will also buy out Statoil from their holding, leaving Nemesia with up to 39% ownership of the new IPC. March 2016 The creation of IPC will be decided upon at a Lundin Petroleum Special General Meeting. Hypothesis: The Lundin Family, through Nemesia, struck a deal with the bond- and noteholders of GKP in July 2016 which means that a new (at that time not existing) Lundin related corporate entity will buy either GKP or farm in to Shaikan PSC in order to finance further development of Shaikan. The deal is temporarily secured financially for the GKP owners by the assets in Nemesia and for the Lundin Family through representation on the GKP Board of Directors. Nemesia will be the dominating owner of IPC and will together with other Lundin affiliated holdings control up to 45% of IPC, thereby being in a position to deliver this business proposal (the deal with GKP) to IPC and get it approved by IPC. Nemesia would also probably get a finder's fee. IPC would take over Nemesia's role in the deal and execute the take over/farm in. IPC and ShaMaran would eventually have to consider synergies and possibly merge. The only stumbling blocks I see are the definition of "stable jurisdictions", could KRG really fit into that definition?, and the willingness of the Lundin Family to expose themselves even more to the oil operations in Kurdistan. Do they see a future shareholder value? Risk is not an issue for the Lundins as long as the potential rewards outweigh the risk. Their motto is "No Guts, No Glory". This is a hypothesis and nothing more. But give it a thought, it fits a little too well with actual events and the time line. Trevanian. Thought i would share this, it is not something i have given any thought before, but it is of interest. CCC
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P:43 V: D:20170818 01:07:32