Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd LSE:GKP London Ordinary Share BMG4209G2077 COM SHS USD1.00 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 203.50 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
203.50 204.50 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 196.47 62.50 27.32 7.5 456
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
19:00:22 O 13,656 204.10 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
16/10/201907:32THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated)592,731
07/9/201915:57GKP - On Balance - Moderated45,255
02/9/201912:58The New GKP - Holding For Multibaggers3,809
09/7/201918:18GKP - The End Game37
09/7/201913:27GKP TAKEOVER OR PRODUCTION?6

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Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
06:17:37204.1013,65627,871.90O
06:17:37204.6524,80050,754.19O
2019-10-15 16:17:23203.492,2184,513.41O
2019-10-15 16:07:52204.2494191.98O
2019-10-15 16:04:53203.95403821.90O
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DateSubject
15/10/2019
09:20
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Daily Update: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GKP. The last closing price for Gulf Keystone Petroleum was 203.50p.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd has a 4 week average price of 203p and a 12 week average price of 203p.
The 1 year high share price is 276.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 164.80p.
There are currently 224,203,633 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 420,473 shares. The market capitalisation of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd is £456,254,393.16.
21/8/2019
08:25
mcfly02: hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares/news/those-who-purchased-gulf-keystone-petroleum-longkp-shares-five-years-ago-have-a-97-loss-to-show-for-it/ Those Who Purchased Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) Shares Five Years Ago Have A 97% Loss To Show For It Simply Wall St August 21, 2019 Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (LON:GKP) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last month. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 97% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The million dollar question is whether the company can justify a long term recovery. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don’t have to lose the lesson. View our latest analysis for Gulf Keystone Petroleum To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. Gulf Keystone Petroleum became profitable within the last five years. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move. Revenue is actually up 40% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity. LSE:GKP Income Statement, August 21st 2019 LSE:GKP Income Statement, August 21st 2019 It is of course excellent to see how Gulf Keystone Petroleum has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s financial health with this free report on its balance sheet. What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)? We’ve already covered Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s TSR, at -97% is higher than its share price return of -97%. When you consider it hasn’t been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising. A Different Perspective While the broader market lost about 1.3% in the twelve months, Gulf Keystone Petroleum shareholders did even worse, losing 8.6%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 50% doled out over the last five years. We’d need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Gulf Keystone Petroleum scores on these 3 valuation metrics. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
05/8/2019
20:02
urals: Agree Chinese . I'd forgotten that the WI is 80% ,just read the annual report that confirms it explicitly.Thank you. Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
03/8/2019
20:30
chinese_takeaway: https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
03/8/2019
20:28
chinese_takeaway: Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
03/8/2019
20:26
chinese_takeaway: Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
03/8/2019
20:08
chinese_takeaway: So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
03/8/2019
20:05
chinese_takeaway: So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.
17/4/2019
08:26
chinese_takeaway: Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Potential To Double Revenue By 2021Apr. 17, 2019 1:25 AM ET | About: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY), GUKYFVasily ZyryanovVasily ZyryanovLong/short equity(173 followers)SummaryIn 2018, Gulf Keystone Petroleum increased revenue and net income supported by the elimination of payment delays from the KRG.The Kurdistan-focused company has come through years of financial distress and uncertainty and ultimately recovered.The essential revenue driver is the Shaikan oilfield development that secures the production jump to 55 kbopd in Q1 2020.Its enormous levered FCF margin of 54.9% deserves high praise.With P/E of 9.4x, PEG of 0.2, and 18.3% FCF yield, the firm is undervalued.Iraqi Kurdistan-focused Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF, OTCQX:GFKSY) presented its 2018 results on March 28. Compared to 2017, the figures improved substantially, both on the P&L and the cash flow statement. In the previous years, the firm faced times of skyrocketed share price, then slump and painful recovery. Now it appears that investor sentiment has started to revive after the firm declared its first dividend to be paid in 2019 and shed light on a massive development program in the Shaikan oilfield in Kurdistan that would drive production, revenue, and, possibly, valuation higher in the medium term. Also, apart from stellar growth prospects, the firm has a P/E of only 9.4x and an attractive PEG of 0.2. What is more, according to the recently filed form TR-1, BlackRock (BLK) has increased its share ownership to 5%, which, in my view, hints that the company sees an upside. Now let's go down to details.Profits & lossesDuring the latest oil slump, GKP was deeply in the red. In 2015, the firm had even negative EBITDA. On June 2016 trailing-twelve months revenue amounted to $158.14 million, while the bottom line was $(368.83) million.GKP revenue and earnings historySource: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQConstant delays in payments from the Kurdistan regional government put liquidity under strain. A collapse was in the air, but ultimately, the disaster was staved off. The price the company had to pay for staying afloat was the painful capital restructuring through the conversion of $500 million of debt into equity. The massive dilution was an inevitable consequence that hammered shareholders.But it appears that the days of drama were left behind. In 2017, the firm became profitable, and net income even overlapped the top line. By now there are no signs of financial distress or balance sheet fragility. In 2016, after capital restructuring, the debt plummeted from $554.05 million to $98.89 million. Since then the company has amassed a considerable cash stockpile of $296 million, which more than fully covers total debt of $7.8 million. With annual EBITDA of $149.3 million, debt servicing is not an issue.GKP historical debt Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQIn 2018, the firm had revenue of $250.55 million compared to 2017 revenue of $172.37 million. The net income also improved substantially, rose from $14.13 million to $79.89 million. An essential matter is that operating expenses are meager, only $3.2 per barrel, slightly higher than $2.7 in 2017. Production averaged 31,563 bopd. By now the company produces pure oil with "no signs of water or gas breakthrough" (see p. 12 of the presentation). But there were a few drawbacks. Export pipeline disruptions in August and the shutdown in February impacted production. However, in March 2019 the situation normalized and the output jumped to 33.1 kbopd. Nearly all oil is exported via tie-in at PF-2 into the export pipeline, but ~3,000 bopd are trucked to Fishkhabour. During the event, GKP assured that the trucking would be eliminated this summer.Growth prospectsIn fact, GKP is a single asset company. The Shaikan, the firm's treasury trove, is located ~37 miles to the north-west of Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Erbil. GKP has an 80% interest and operatorship, the partner is Hungarian MOL. Fruitful drilling in the area that ended in oil discoveries and declaration of their commerciality impressed the market and secured the share price rally to the all-time high in 2012. Now GKP has a clear and concise growth blueprint based on the development of the field. The firm promised to reach production of 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. The next milestones (see p. 38) are 75 kbopd (by ~2021), 85 kbopd (by ~2022), and 110 kbopd (by ~2024). According to the guidance (see p. 39), facilities of Phase 1 will be completed in Q4 2019, while drilling will likely be finished in Q1 2020. It is worth noting that field development plan with facilities necessary to reach 75, 85, and 110 kbopd has not been approved by the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources yet "due to insufficient assurances on the elimination of flaring." However, without delays and drawbacks in the field development and other exogenous factors that are not quite easy to foresee, in 2021 the London-listed firm can show revenue of $537.2 million (anticipated by analysts, see the revenue chart below), compared to $250.55 million in 2018. By the way, a similar revenue shift is expected in cases of Lundin Petroleum (OTCPK:LUPEY) and Aker BP (OTCPK:DETNF), the beneficiaries of the oil-rich Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea; I covered the companies a few times, for instance, in the articles published in January and March.Free cash flowInvestors who pay attention not only to accounting profit and EPS but also to free cash flow will be certainly impressed by the data they could find on the CFS of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. 2018 net operating cash flow amounted to $158.2 million, while cash investment in PP&E and intangibles equaled $20.7 million. Hence, levered FCF was $138 million and FCF margin equaled a breathtaking 54.9%. In fact, it is not a trivial task to convert more than half of revenue into free cash, and the companies that manage to do so should be appreciated.On April 15, 2019, GKP had a market capitalization of £573 million, which equals $750.4 million. Hence, by now levered free cash flow yield is standing at ~18.3%, even higher than the 14% yield of DNO ASA, which is indeed undervalued.DividendDuring the Capital Markets Event, GKP shed light on its newly established dividend policy (see p. 57). It promised to distribute no less than $25 million per financial year. Also, in "periods of strong cash flow generation" the dividend might be increased. In 2019, the total dividend will equal $50 million (25 ordinary DPS + 25 million supplemental). In my view, the shareholder rewards are secure as with FCF of $138 million, dividend coverage is not an issue. On April 15, the share price on the LSE equaled £2.5. With DPS of ~£0.16 (considering 229,317 thousand of shares outstanding and USD/GBP of 0.76373) dividend yield amounts to ~6.6%.GKP is not the only Kurdistan-focused E&P company that has recently restored dividends. DNO ASA and Genel Energy have also decided to establish shareholder rewards (see details on Genel's decision here and DNO's announcement here), as their current resilience of financial position, stabilization in the region of operations, and growth prospects secure the ability to return excess cash to shareowners.ValuationApart from FCF yield, there are a few indicators that signalize that Gulf Keystone Petroleum is cheap. First, compared to the UK-market median P/E of 16.22x, GKP with its ratio of only 9.4x looks underappreciated. At the same time, the US O&G industry median Price-to-profit currently equals 12.56x. The next ratio I suppose worth taking into account is PEG. In fact, PEG calculated on the basis of 2019 anticipated EPS will not be genuinely inspiring, because it is negative, caused by an expected decline of profit (2018 EPS of $0.38 vs. 2019 anticipated EPS of $0.20). However, increased production from the Shaikan will impact net income in 2020, and in this sense, analysts expect 2020 EPS to equal $0.72, and 2021 EPS to amount to $1.01.GKP EPS consensus estimates Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQSo, PEG adjusted for forecasted 2020-2021 EPS equals 0.2x, indicating that GKP is ideally apt for the Growth at a reasonable price strategy.Its closest peers are Kurdistan-focused DNO (OTCPK:DTNOF) and Genel Energy (OTCPK:GEGYF). I have addressed the valuation of DNO ASA in the article published earlier this month. In my view, all three companies are currently underpriced. Genel, for instance, has P/B of only 0.6x. The main culprit of such attractive multiples is indeed the market's skepticism. It probably hints that it is still not entirely confident in the predictability of the region given the complexity of its future and other intricacies. However, the sentiment might change if the companies will systematically reach their targets and persuade investors that the region is now more stable and predictable.ConclusionThe expected noticeable shift in production, the introduced dividend, and more certainty in cash payments from the KRG have attracted investors' attention to Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which previously grappled with severe challenges. Now it is evident that with the development of the Shaikan oilfield without backlogs, the company will be rich in cash. Of course, GKP is indeed not immune to the commodities market sentiment. In this sense, Brent price remains the key catalyst to the share price movement.Note: The stock exchange of primary listing is the LSE; ordinary shares traded in London have higher liquidity than the ADR.
17/4/2019
07:31
walval: Gulf Keystone Petroleum: Potential To Double Revenue By 2021 Apr. 17, 2019 1:25 AM ET | About: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY), GUKYF Vasily Zyryanov Vasily Zyryanov Long/short equity (173 followers) Summary In 2018, Gulf Keystone Petroleum increased revenue and net income supported by the elimination of payment delays from the KRG. The Kurdistan-focused company has come through years of financial distress and uncertainty and ultimately recovered. The essential revenue driver is the Shaikan oilfield development that secures the production jump to 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. Its enormous levered FCF margin of 54.9% deserves high praise. With P/E of 9.4x, PEG of 0.2, and 18.3% FCF yield, the firm is undervalued. Iraqi Kurdistan-focused Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF, OTCQX:GFKSY) presented its 2018 results on March 28. Compared to 2017, the figures improved substantially, both on the P&L and the cash flow statement. In the previous years, the firm faced times of skyrocketed share price, then slump and painful recovery. Now it appears that investor sentiment has started to revive after the firm declared its first dividend to be paid in 2019 and shed light on a massive development program in the Shaikan oilfield in Kurdistan that would drive production, revenue, and, possibly, valuation higher in the medium term. Also, apart from stellar growth prospects, the firm has a P/E of only 9.4x and an attractive PEG of 0.2. What is more, according to the recently filed form TR-1, BlackRock (BLK) has increased its share ownership to 5%, which, in my view, hints that the company sees an upside. Now let's go down to details. Profits & losses During the latest oil slump, GKP was deeply in the red. In 2015, the firm had even negative EBITDA. On June 2016 trailing-twelve months revenue amounted to $158.14 million, while the bottom line was $(368.83) million. GKP revenue and earnings history Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ Constant delays in payments from the Kurdistan regional government put liquidity under strain. A collapse was in the air, but ultimately, the disaster was staved off. The price the company had to pay for staying afloat was the painful capital restructuring through the conversion of $500 million of debt into equity. The massive dilution was an inevitable consequence that hammered shareholders. But it appears that the days of drama were left behind. In 2017, the firm became profitable, and net income even overlapped the top line. By now there are no signs of financial distress or balance sheet fragility. In 2016, after capital restructuring, the debt plummeted from $554.05 million to $98.89 million. Since then the company has amassed a considerable cash stockpile of $296 million, which more than fully covers total debt of $7.8 million. With annual EBITDA of $149.3 million, debt servicing is not an issue. GKP historical debt Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ In 2018, the firm had revenue of $250.55 million compared to 2017 revenue of $172.37 million. The net income also improved substantially, rose from $14.13 million to $79.89 million. An essential matter is that operating expenses are meager, only $3.2 per barrel, slightly higher than $2.7 in 2017. Production averaged 31,563 bopd. By now the company produces pure oil with "no signs of water or gas breakthrough" (see p. 12 of the presentation). But there were a few drawbacks. Export pipeline disruptions in August and the shutdown in February impacted production. However, in March 2019 the situation normalized and the output jumped to 33.1 kbopd. Nearly all oil is exported via tie-in at PF-2 into the export pipeline, but ~3,000 bopd are trucked to Fishkhabour. During the event, GKP assured that the trucking would be eliminated this summer. Growth prospects In fact, GKP is a single asset company. The Shaikan, the firm's treasury trove, is located ~37 miles to the north-west of Iraqi Kurdistan capital of Erbil. GKP has an 80% interest and operatorship, the partner is Hungarian MOL. Fruitful drilling in the area that ended in oil discoveries and declaration of their commerciality impressed the market and secured the share price rally to the all-time high in 2012. Now GKP has a clear and concise growth blueprint based on the development of the field. The firm promised to reach production of 55 kbopd in Q1 2020. The next milestones (see p. 38) are 75 kbopd (by ~2021), 85 kbopd (by ~2022), and 110 kbopd (by ~2024). According to the guidance (see p. 39), facilities of Phase 1 will be completed in Q4 2019, while drilling will likely be finished in Q1 2020. It is worth noting that field development plan with facilities necessary to reach 75, 85, and 110 kbopd has not been approved by the Kurdistan Ministry of Natural Resources yet "due to insufficient assurances on the elimination of flaring." However, without delays and drawbacks in the field development and other exogenous factors that are not quite easy to foresee, in 2021 the London-listed firm can show revenue of $537.2 million (anticipated by analysts, see the revenue chart below), compared to $250.55 million in 2018. By the way, a similar revenue shift is expected in cases of Lundin Petroleum (OTCPK:LUPEY) and Aker BP (OTCPK:DETNF), the beneficiaries of the oil-rich Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea; I covered the companies a few times, for instance, in the articles published in January and March. Free cash flow Investors who pay attention not only to accounting profit and EPS but also to free cash flow will be certainly impressed by the data they could find on the CFS of Gulf Keystone Petroleum. 2018 net operating cash flow amounted to $158.2 million, while cash investment in PP&E and intangibles equaled $20.7 million. Hence, levered FCF was $138 million and FCF margin equaled a breathtaking 54.9%. In fact, it is not a trivial task to convert more than half of revenue into free cash, and the companies that manage to do so should be appreciated. On April 15, 2019, GKP had a market capitalization of £573 million, which equals $750.4 million. Hence, by now levered free cash flow yield is standing at ~18.3%, even higher than the 14% yield of DNO ASA, which is indeed undervalued. Dividend During the Capital Markets Event, GKP shed light on its newly established dividend policy (see p. 57). It promised to distribute no less than $25 million per financial year. Also, in "periods of strong cash flow generation" the dividend might be increased. In 2019, the total dividend will equal $50 million (25 ordinary DPS + 25 million supplemental). In my view, the shareholder rewards are secure as with FCF of $138 million, dividend coverage is not an issue. On April 15, the share price on the LSE equaled £2.5. With DPS of ~£0.16 (considering 229,317 thousand of shares outstanding and USD/GBP of 0.76373) dividend yield amounts to ~6.6%. GKP is not the only Kurdistan-focused E&P company that has recently restored dividends. DNO ASA and Genel Energy have also decided to establish shareholder rewards (see details on Genel's decision here and DNO's announcement here), as their current resilience of financial position, stabilization in the region of operations, and growth prospects secure the ability to return excess cash to shareowners. Valuation Apart from FCF yield, there are a few indicators that signalize that Gulf Keystone Petroleum is cheap. First, compared to the UK-market median P/E of 16.22x, GKP with its ratio of only 9.4x looks underappreciated. At the same time, the US O&G industry median Price-to-profit currently equals 12.56x. The next ratio I suppose worth taking into account is PEG. In fact, PEG calculated on the basis of 2019 anticipated EPS will not be genuinely inspiring, because it is negative, caused by an expected decline of profit (2018 EPS of $0.38 vs. 2019 anticipated EPS of $0.20). However, increased production from the Shaikan will impact net income in 2020, and in this sense, analysts expect 2020 EPS to equal $0.72, and 2021 EPS to amount to $1.01. GKP EPS consensus estimates Source: Simply Wall St. Data from S&P Capital IQ So, PEG adjusted for forecasted 2020-2021 EPS equals 0.2x, indicating that GKP is ideally apt for the Growth at a reasonable price strategy. Its closest peers are Kurdistan-focused DNO (OTCPK:DTNOF) and Genel Energy (OTCPK:GEGYF). I have addressed the valuation of DNO ASA in the article published earlier this month. In my view, all three companies are currently underpriced. Genel, for instance, has P/B of only 0.6x. The main culprit of such attractive multiples is indeed the market's skepticism. It probably hints that it is still not entirely confident in the predictability of the region given the complexity of its future and other intricacies. However, the sentiment might change if the companies will systematically reach their targets and persuade investors that the region is now more stable and predictable. Conclusion The expected noticeable shift in production, the introduced dividend, and more certainty in cash payments from the KRG have attracted investors' attention to Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which previously grappled with severe challenges. Now it is evident that with the development of the Shaikan oilfield without backlogs, the company will be rich in cash. Of course, GKP is indeed not immune to the commodities market sentiment. In this sense, Brent price remains the key catalyst to the share price movement. Note: The stock exchange of primary listing is the LSE; ordinary shares traded in London have higher liquidity than the ADR.
26/3/2019
12:01
atino: (Quote) “Why I think the GKP share price could be the best oil stock bargain of the decade” 🙇 In the depths of the oil price slump, I was pondering how best to play the recovery that I was confident would happen. The best long-term approach, I reckon, is to buy shares in BP or Royal Dutch Shell, put them away and just forget about them. But I also fancied a more geared prospect, albeit with more risk, with a small amount of my cash. I went for Premier Oil (LSE: PMO), but I can’t help feeling that Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) could be the best mid-cap oil prospect out there right now. Updates Since I last looked at GKP in January, we’ve seen Shaikan payments continuing nicely, with a total of $35.3m being paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government for crude oil sales during November and December 2018. But the firm’s update earlier this month made for more interesting reading. The 2019 de-bottlenecking programme at Shaikan is on track to achieve a production target of 55,000 bopd by the first quarter of 2020. And a new pipeline should be completed by the middle of this year, which will eliminate the need for trucking of crude oil. Combined, those two developments should make for smoother and less risky production and shipping. The firm’s relationship with the Kurdistan Regional Government is continuing to look healthy too, as the two parties have signed a renewal of their crude oil sales agreement, which is now effective up until 31 December 2020. And even though production was hit in the first quarter by work to install larger bore tubing to enhance production, the company is still expecting to record gross average production of 32,000 to 38,000 bopd in 2019. Premier The big story at Premier Oil has been full-year results released in early March, which chief executive Tony Durrant summed up with: “2018 saw higher production, positive free cash flow and a return to profitability,” and that “the group is ahead of plans to restore balance sheet strength and remains focused on consistently delivering free cash flows.” With Premier’s focus necessarily being on its debts, that has to be good news. The company achieved a record production of 80.5 kboepd, and posted an after-tax profit of $133.4m — and that’s a much better result than 2017’s post-tax loss of $253.8m. Cash Operating cash flow grew by 64% to $777.2m, and that helped get year-end debt down to $2.3bn from $2.7bn a year previously. Premier is certainly not out of the woods yet, with the oil price only tentatively holding up at still under the $70 per barrel that I’d feel more comfortable with. World production is still expected to be in surplus throughout 2019, and any fall in demand as global economic growth appears to be slowing would exacerbate that problem. Future oil price weakness would put more pressure on smaller oil companies, but as my colleague Roland Head estimates, Premier should be cash flow positive at about $45 per barrel. I think that provides a sufficient safety margin for Premier Oil shares, and I’m becoming more confident that I’ve made a good 10-year investment. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/03/25/why-i-think-the-gkp-share-price-could-be-the-best-oil-stock-bargain-of-the-decade/
Gulf Keystone Petroleum share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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