Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[highlander7] 02/6/2024 04:18

APIKUR@apikur_oil: 9h

🔴FACT CHECK: On May 27, our press release said: “Should such agreements require modifications to existing contracts, APIKUR member companies are willing to consider this if agreed between the GOI, KRG and individual IOCs.”

The lie ...

Draw English@DrawMediaNet:14h

“The oil companies in the Kurdistan region are not ready to amend their contracts” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani said in an exclusive interview with Anadolu.

[hangthedj] 01/6/2024 22:17

If GKP weren't incurring development costs and were simply pumping at say $14 a barrel and the Kurds getting their money from the national budget then at say 60kbpd they presumably would be paid:-

60k x 30 days x $14 = $25.2 million a month or $302 million a year just for pumping the oil

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My understanding, the current PSC is a complicated formula but if in future with export pipeline open and GKP weren't recovering past costs (or incurring future development costs) we'd receive around $7 per barrel which would result in around 50% of the above calculation being more accurate.

Of course we all live in hope that the outstanding $151m will be recovered somehow or at least the $120m of that figure (which is recovery costs) being added back to the CRP and recovered in the future via the PSC calculation.

[adamrugen1066] 01/6/2024 21:00

Only Iraq is in a hurry to resolve this as they are the ones who look stupid on the international stage; Al-Sudani made promises to everyone and now is seen as being unable to deliver. IOCs can do better than $16.

[nestoframpers] 01/6/2024 20:30

That would be very nice but I'd rather just see the end of GKP TBH.

[habshan] 01/6/2024 20:03

Just a mull.

"They have not yet agreed on a fixed price for the cost of oil production, but I expect it to be $12 to $16 per barrel," he said."

No idea what the contract terms would be for APIKUR to be happy with that, they've said many times that their commercial and contractual entitlements need to be met otherwise no exports.

But that price doesn't include any cost recovery because they need $26. $12-16 would simply cover the cost of pumping a barrel of oil. So if there's no cost recovery it's because the IOCs aren't paying the costs.

How much the current PSC would pay if the cost pool was empty I don't know so can't make the comparison.

And would the KRG be happy. Personally I can't see the Kurds going for it.

One thing I do know is that if APIKUR and the Kurds aren't happy there'll be no exports, they'll just sit it out until next year.

If GKP weren't incurring development costs and were simply pumping at say $14 a barrel and the Kurds getting their money from the national budget then at say 60kbpd they presumably would be paid:-

60k x 30 days x $14 = $25.2 million a month or $302 million a year just for pumping the oil.

So if their current costs of $6 million a month to cover maintenance and overheads still applied they'd have $173 million a year profit with 10% of that going to MOL leaving $156 million.

And with no development costs to pay for what would they do with that exactly.

Distributions?

That would be 57p per share per year with 217 million shares in issue, more if they continued with buybacks.

In addition, any deal would need to address the $151 million arrears and with $100 million currently in the bank that would mean $250 million with nothing to spend that on either.

If they retained the $100 million in the bank and returned the arrears to shareholders it would be a one off 55p per share.

Anybody???

[luckyclicker] 01/6/2024 18:49

https://x.com/john78846295/status/1796958407292850362?t=ZYWT0euwHeIWvbD1zZCjXQ&s=19

[luckyclicker] 01/6/2024 18:49

The meeting is to conduct the process properly. The negotiations are in that direction and this issue is expected to be resolved. The contracts will be reviewed and an agreement will be reached on the entitlements of the oil companies. "They have not yet agreed on a fixed price for the cost of oil production, but I expect it to be $12 to $16 per barrel," he said.  

[habshan] 01/6/2024 18:04

Nest - "When looked into Aramco and costs the were $35 . They use sea water to extract the oil."

A very expensive business, and Iraq are having to build a similar seawater system to extract their oil so the cost of producing a barrel of oil in Federal Iraq will be in the same ball park.

And as in Saudi Arabia, in Federal Iraq the cost of that seawater system and other infrastructure is borne by the state and not by the companies pumping the oil, and those companies take no exploration risk, they are simply paid $8 to pump every barrel of oil.

Whereas in Kurdistan the companies bear the cost of everything and take ALL the exploration risk, and those costs need to be recovered which is why they need $26 or whatever.

But either way the state pays, the ICG know perfectly well why they can pay $8 while the Kurds need to pay $26.

If the ICG were to pay Kurdish IOCs $8 then the ICG would pay all the development costs and that would give them control over the development of the Kurdish fields and the Kurdish oil industry, something that would infringe the Kurds constitutional rights. The Kurds want the ICG to simply be a buyer of Kurdish oil exchanging 400kbpd for their share of the budget, an agreement that could change from September next year

And that in my opinion is what this problem has been about from the start.

The difference between $8 and $26 is a red herring as the state pays for everything either way.

It's about bringing everything under the control of Baghdad and eroding the Kurds constitutional rights.

But I sense that the ICG may be backpedalling under international pressure from Erdogan the Americans and others and having realised/accepted that their case is legally hopeless. Not to mention that in a little over 15 months they could find themselves cut out of Kurdish exports altogether when the ITP agreement expires.

Let's see what next week brings and what comes from this meeting that the ICG have "urgently" requested to get exports restarted.

[nestoframpers] 01/6/2024 17:01

When looked into Aramco and costs the were $35 . They use sea water to extract the oil.

[worldquant] 01/6/2024 14:53

ChicagoJack5
·
4m
#gkp #gkptakeover
Another laugh pre T/O RNS
CEO ( buckets of options already+ great salary) needs further huge rewards to stay just 7 mths 🤣
Why ? Buyers need him as key man for handover period post sale ,this their guarantee he stays 6 mths before jetting to Barbados

[redbed] 01/6/2024 13:20

ChicagoJack
@ChicagoJack5
·
4m
#gkp #gkptakeover
Another laugh pre T/O RNS
CEO ( buckets of options already+ great salary) needs further huge rewards to stay just 7 mths 🤣
Why ? Buyers need him as key man for handover period post sale ,this their guarantee he stays 6 mths before jetting to Barbados

[redbed] 01/6/2024 13:02

ChicagoJack
@ChicagoJack5
·
6s
#gkp #gkptakeover
Buyback Program= PRE TAKEOVER
MAR stabilisation program👍
Have only bought 0.633% of original issue in 3 weeks🤫
But share price +20.4 % 😇
Market protection continues
3 weeks or less to go and MKT BAD ACTORS be getting even more nervous.
Squeezed.
🚀🚀🚀🚀

[hydrocarbon1] 01/6/2024 12:33

Habshan1 Jun '24 - 12:05 - 705444 of 705445
0 5 0
"Yes we will put this money aside for poor IOC's --- Open your eyes."

You misunderstand hydro.
----------------------------------------------------
Fair enough but what about the other billions.

[eddie47] 01/6/2024 12:21

FT suggesting today that Saudi Aramco has the lowest production costs in the world at $3.19! I think we can compete with that.

[redbed] 01/6/2024 11:46

#gkp #gkptakeoverWho are @Gulf_Keystone acquirers?If a single company SINOPEC very strong favourite, Shell given the strong Dutch shareholder connections possible, but given the sheer scale of Shaikan, consortium probable.https://x.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1796843593161671038?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[redbed] 01/6/2024 11:46

#gkp #gkptakeoverWhilst we wait for @Gulf_Keystone sale RNS. look at what areal buyback program (2019) looks like, every day V current one , which is a stabilisation program in reality pre sale announcement to stop bad actors f?&*ing about with the share price .HTTPS://x.com/111notout1/status/1796775886433194278?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[hydrocarbon1] 01/6/2024 11:46

eddie471 Jun '24 - 10:48 - 705437 of 705438
Chinese Firms Snag Iraqi Oil and Gas Blocks
Chinese investors are less risk averse than their Western counterparts, hence their strong showing in the latest upstream opportunities offered by Baghdad.
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Nothing to do with "less risk adverse* all to do with back door deals.
Approx 5 months ago I warned watch Russia and China.

APIKUR possibly illegal union - I stressed this, ARAB LAW will prevail.

Why do you think AK not invited to many meetings, you are about to find out.

[redbed] 01/6/2024 11:44

#gkp #gkptakeoverWho are @Gulf_Keystone acquirers?If a single company SINOPEC very strong favourite, Shell given the strong Dutch shareholder connections possible, but given the sheer scale of Shaikan, consortium probable.https://x.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1796843593161671038?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw