Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 03/5/2021 14:07

Also I thought I would post up clear proof about the dilution of 2016 that so many here have argued that there wasn't any dilution.

"Shareholder dilution and re-investment option: Following the Debt Equitisation of over US$500 million and not including Shareholders' rights to subscribe in the Open Offer, Shareholders' ownership of the Company will be diluted to 5%;


Btw there's no harm in being optimistic about ones investment as why invest in the first place. However there is no doubt whatsoever that the numbers that Kozel and his mates dined out on just don't exist. They were exaggerated out of all proportion in order for him to pay himself tens of $millions.

You rampers keep referring to the numbers that Kozel and JG bragged about but they've not in the least been supported by the four separate CPR's.

It can be clearly seen from the evidence that they have a lot of issues to solve at the field and the low production numbers after 13 wells and 11 years is the proof they're having major extractions issues.

Imho it looks like the problems encountered in the East side of the field are also in the middle of the field based on S12/S13 not going to be producing from the company's targeted lower zone. This is an important point that some of you clowns are dismissing and making up excuses for. They were obviously going for the lower zone in order to try and increase the Reserves. However those wells gave them more data and that the OWC wasn't where they thought it to be but hundred's of metres higher. Hence the huge downgrade (as I predicted) in the Jurassic numbers.

You rampers really should have learnt to piece together the picture that the evidence paints for you by now but there again desperate rampers don't do that do they:-)

1.7p for many different reasons and why there's still no takeaway after 11 years. Perhaps the "experts" are able to understand the evidence and clues far better eh:-)

All about the reality.

[attyg] 03/5/2021 14:02

Nor,

I don't think dividends etc will come into it with any takeover.
My thinking is any takeover will be to buy the production licence after a re-negotiation with the KRG/Baghdad, plus certain assets eg plant and equipment, but not debtors or back payments due from the KRG, nor take on any possible dodgy claims/liabilities, all of which would come from buying shares. That would leave GKP with a deep well of cash. Hopefully this would then be retuned as a special dividend to us rather than have the board wandering off buying some speculative licence somewhere else, ha ha.
I am comfortable that the major shareholders will want cash back asap, after all they didn't want to be equity holders in the first place!

Of course many are of the view that possible prospective acquirers have been collecting shares at these low prices and so believe it will be a company takeover, however, any such buying would still be beneficial to an acquirer as that % of money will simply be returned to the acquirer once the special dividend is paid.

[eddie47] 03/5/2021 13:55

Sinopec said many years ago that it was 'watching an overseas asset . . and would make a move when the time is right'. HSBC were working for them at the time and were rumoured to be making a $25bn bid for Anadarko. Well that, of course, never happened. So I wonder what they have been waiting for.

[nestoframpers] 03/5/2021 12:34

The CC cost Blackrobe £11 mill from memory , we don't know if GKP ever got paid all their costs, so who knows maybe did din't cost them that much? . Re that £11 mill how many shares did that net some entity ? Money well spent from their POV.

[nestoframpers] 03/5/2021 12:14

Bank hol treat for you another Bob classic re the Permian.


oil_investor10 Sep '18 - 21:07 - 571578 of 571579
0 3 0
awakening the giant: the item copied at the foot of this post takes a lot of explaining. I have now established that the event was the conference held on 1 December 2009. There is no trace of the GKP presentation that I can find, but there is a Petroceltic presentation which still exists online.

The Chia Zaira (also spent Ziari) is the uppermost formation in the Permian. GKP initially said they were targeting the Chia Zaira (etc) in Shaikan-1, then said they were going to stop drilling just above it…then the well encountered colossal pressure at depth and the new, high-spec Blow Out Preventers on the new Weatherford rig saved a disaster by slamming shut. GKP then said they would drill SH-2 into the Permian,

That SH-1 event was later publicly discussed by John Gerstenlauer and Todd Kozel. The Chia Zaira was referenced in that discussion as the formation where the enormous pressure was encountered. JG said that “we lost control” of the well, but TK immediately corrected him by saying “we almost lost control”.

The item below is very interesting in several ways. For example, the pre-drill estimates are the same as the ones given in evidence at the Pantomime three years later. The Sargelu is referenced - the net pay figure for the Sargelu was heavily reduced by GKP over Christmas 2010 following the receipt of the “wrong in fact, and wrong in law” Excalibur claim shortly before Christmas Eve. That unexplained reduction was in conflict with what both DGA and Ryder Scott said about the Sargelu net pay. I find that most interesting. There is a reference to a “fractured system” which GKP believed, at the time, might be “full of oil”. ERC Equipoise confirmed that it was indeed filled with oil in the CPR.

And of course there are the comments about the Permian - “where we saw the oil and the over-pressure reservoir”. The comment that “which we’re going to have to come back on the next well and drill” fits SH-2 exactly.

And the remark “it’s an amazing well” matches what Jon Ferrier said this very morning - he used the words “an outstanding asset”.

There are perhaps two key issues in here. #1 is “what happened to the Sargelu net pay?” and #2 is “why did GKP say, and more than once, that SH-1 entered the Permian but the current line is that the Permian has never been entered?”

“Global Energy Conference. 2009. Formations Encountered in Shaikan-1. [Slide 13]. It’s an amazing well. As I said when we started drilling this, our expectations were 1 to 2 billion barrels in place, 2 billion in our wildest imagination. We started encountering oil at the Sargelu, and we drilled roughly 1460m of reservoir section. The net pay, 215m, if you don’t add in addition to that, the fractured system which we believe as also full of oil, probably raises that number to 250. At the bottom, the Chia Zaira is where we saw the oil and the over-pressure reservoir, which we’re going to have to come back on the next well and drill. It’s quite interesting”

[nestoframpers] 03/5/2021 11:10

They reckon they do not know about the Permian , but maybe they do? So they may know all about Shaikan .

[nestoframpers] 03/5/2021 11:09

Why would a buyer wait for POO to go up more and the Divis to be paid ? Wait longer and lose money imo.

[nestoframpers] 03/5/2021 10:32

I was of that thinking myself , later rather than sooner but the non triggering of the LTIP ( clearly manipulated share price ) might be more of a sign than usual? As often stated the KRI do need to get on with it .

[bumkin] 03/5/2021 09:13

AttyG and spark plug.

Ditto 👍

[spark plug] 03/5/2021 09:08

AttyG
My view is much aligned with yours as this has been a long and difficult road which I keep a close watch on the day to day shenanigans, where any chance of breakout is swiftly slapped down leaving us in this current trading range. The prospect of a possible two dividends this year is encouraging so I am here to the end after all the pain. With only a handful of posters not on filter any genuine insights are welcome.

[attyg] 03/5/2021 08:36

While I would absolutely love us to get to the final scene, I don't think it will be as soon as I think you are inferring, NOR.
I reckon the politics are improving greatly and I really hope this goes all the way, but with Genel share price languishing as well I sense the market does not expect it imminently.

I remain bullish and continue to buy.
I expect the share price to be much higher within three months - but I have been wrong more times than right.

I have also filtered so many avatars on this board that catching up with the few sensible posts does not take much time. Ha ha.

[nestoframpers] 02/5/2021 23:44

I don't care Bravedog , just get to the final scene PLEASE !

[bravedog] 02/5/2021 21:49

@Nest
@notout

” 3 they would have lost 100's of millions to Sami jf and all the LTIP holders....”

So the real questions are:

how much are SZ and JF allowed to earn?
what is the goal of Lundin: become a partner in the big Shaikan or accept a good check as he knows exactly the value of SH?

[bigdog5] 02/5/2021 21:30

I've been going back over all the CPR's and having a real good laugh.

Also I thought I would post up clear proof about the dilution of 2016 that so many here have argued that there wasn't any dilution.

"Shareholder dilution and re-investment option: Following the Debt Equitisation of over US$500 million and not including Shareholders' rights to subscribe in the Open Offer, Shareholders' ownership of the Company will be diluted to 5%; however, Shareholders will have the ability to re-invest in a well-capitalised Company by participating in the US$25 million Open Offer for 10% of GKP's equity at closing of the Restructuring".

Facts not BS.

How's the unlocking of the potential and stakeholder value doing as we approach the five year anniversary of said shareholder wipe out?

1.7p for several reasons including the four CPR's:-)