Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[beernut] 10/7/2020 12:21

Crude Oil Shortages Beginning To Bite In Key Markets

By Alex Kimani - Jul 09, 2020, 6:00 PM CDT
Last month, OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to extend their deep production cuts through July in an effort to rebalance oversupplied markets in the face of pandemic-hit demand. The cuts were supposed to take ~10% off the markets with July's cut clocking in at 9.6 million bpd.

But now there are signs that the pendulum could have swung a bit too far, with the markets beginning to experience shortages of key crude grades.


There are growing signs that the markets are undersupplied with Urals and Arab Light thanks to continuing deep production cuts as well as a rebound in demand by key customers such as China and Northern Asia.

The price of Urals, Russia's flagship grade, has flipped to record premiums to the Brent crude benchmark, briefly changing hands at $2.40 a barrel above Dated Brent last week to reflect the undersupply.

That marks a sharp turnaround compared to a discount of more than $4.50 a barrel recorded in April. Urals for delivery to Rotterdam, the main oil refinery hub in northwest Europe, were selling at a premium of $1.90 by the end of June, matching a prior record high. This, in effect, means that Rotterdam Urals were selling at ~$45 a barrel, a far cry from the $15 a barrel they commanded in early April.



Oil markets in backwardation

A similar pattern is being observed for other sour crude grades, which are commanding premium prices even with global oil demand still 10% below normal levels.

Under ordinary circumstances, medium-sour crude that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners pump is usually cheaper than light sweet crude with a lower sulfur content. However, OPEC, which mostly pumps medium-sour crude, has dramatically cut output to its lowest level since 1991. Further, Iran and Venezuela, which also supply medium and heavy sour crude, have both seen production severely curtailed due to U.S. sanctions as well as a lack of investment.

Consequently, Saudi Aramco has been able to raise the price of the crude it sells to refiners for three months in a row. And now for the first time ever, Aramco is selling its most dense crude, known as Arab Heavy, at the same price as its flagship Arab Light, a clear indication of strong demand for medium-heavy sour grades. Under normal circumstances, Arab Heavy sells at a discount of $2-to-$6/barrel to Arab Light.

[thicktony] 10/7/2020 11:09

#GKPTHIS IS GOING HOSTILECompany resolved to cancel 18m+ shares but hasn't.Activist shareholders director still not on BoardBlack Rock and J P Morgan holdings disappeared lolAWOL owners of 30% + remain hiding on register Fill boots ?Hostile takeover battle incoming

[mcfly02] 10/7/2020 10:49

Good Morning Guys 😃

I would recommend looking back at the posts made around May 2014 about drilling fluid by all posters.

Who was right ???

[thicktony] 10/7/2020 10:32

#GKPUS hedge funds appearing top 4 holders increasing MM try to suppress market share price as big hitters fill up pre incoming takeover John Paulson legend M+A now holds few million shares via Bright SpherePrecision Capital another US Hedge appears all of a suddenhttps://t.co/zMByo3zL4k

[thicktony] 10/7/2020 10:32

Reserves are a vital part of valuing oil companies in an M&A context. A comparison of the current GKP and Genel 2P Reserves, in millions of barrels attributable, is as follows:Gulf Keystone 497.6Genel 123.8(The GKP number is at the 80% working interest level which is the current one to use) It is clear that GKP has, by far, the greatest Reserves. Shaikan is the biggest oilfield in Kurdistan.Genel said in March that they are profitable with $30 oil. Gulf’s own figure was $36 but major reductions in company expenditure were commencing. The Brent price profit point of both companies now appears broadly the same.No wonder the broker analysts give the high GKP target share prices that they do.IMO

[thicktony] 10/7/2020 10:32

WHY THE TROLLS and CONDOG, BROADFRAUD ARE HERE 24/7The Shaikan structure has a footprint the size of Greater London, plus the side lobe and the Cretaceous flanks. It is riddled with fractures and voids which are full of liquid oil. The Jurassic oil column is 950 metres thick and there is another 350 metres in the Cretaceous and Triassic.ERCE valued the undiscounted 2P oil reserves at $3.067 billion. There are also massive 2C and 3P oil Resources, plus 200 million barrels of very light condensate. GKP said in 2014 that ERCE had only included 10% of the formations in the Reserves and that the Oil In Place “hadn’t gone anywhereâ€?.The 24/7 trolls like the BIGDOG and MCFRUITLOOP ,PATRIOTIC PADDY, BROADFRAUD etc etc try to persuade people reading the blog that GKP is not worth anything. But some of us know differently â€" and can prove it

[mcfly02] 10/7/2020 10:29

Hi Jamie 😃

I'm doing a bit of boat maintenance today.

Shareholders need to be building an ark because it will be biblical.

[highlander7] 10/7/2020 10:12

Reserves are a vital part of valuing oil companies in an M&A context. A comparison of the current GKP and Genel 2P Reserves, in millions of barrels attributable, is as follows:

Gulf Keystone 497.6
Genel 123.8

(The GKP number is at the 80% working interest level which is the current one to use) It is clear that GKP has, by far, the greatest Reserves. Shaikan is the biggest oilfield in Kurdistan.

Genel said in March that they are profitable with $30 oil. Gulf’s own figure was $36 but major reductions in company expenditure were commencing. The Brent price profit point of both companies now appears broadly the same.

No wonder the broker analysts give the high GKP target share prices that they do.

IMO

[nestoframpers] 10/7/2020 09:18

beernut have you turned into Notout ?

[beernut] 10/7/2020 09:16

#GKPTHIS IS GOING HOSTILECompany resolved to cancel 18m+ shares but hasn't.Activist shareholders director still not on BoardBlack Rock and J P Morgan holdings disappeared lolAWOL owners of 30% + remain hiding on register Fill boots ?Hostile takeover battle incoming

[urals] 10/7/2020 09:06

#GKPUS hedge funds appearing top 4 holders increasing MM try to suppress market share price as big hitters fill up pre incoming takeover John Paulson legend M+A now holds few million shares via Bright SpherePrecision Capital another US Hedge appears all of a suddenhttps://t.co/zMByo3zL4k

[urals] 10/7/2020 09:06

WHY THE TROLLS and CONDOG, BROADFRAUD ARE HERE 24/7The Shaikan structure has a footprint the size of Greater London, plus the side lobe and the Cretaceous flanks. It is riddled with fractures and voids which are full of liquid oil. The Jurassic oil column is 950 metres thick and there is another 350 metres in the Cretaceous and Triassic.ERCE valued the undiscounted 2P oil reserves at $3.067 billion. There are also massive 2C and 3P oil Resources, plus 200 million barrels of very light condensate. GKP said in 2014 that ERCE had only included 10% of the formations in the Reserves and that the Oil In Place “hadn’t gone anywhereâ€?.The 24/7 trolls like the BIGDOG and MCFRUITLOOP ,PATRIOTIC PADDY, BROADFRAUD etc etc try to persuade people reading the blog that GKP is not worth anything. But some of us know differently â€" and can prove it

[broadford bay] 10/7/2020 08:59

Morning mac!

out and about...?

[urals] 10/7/2020 08:58

#GKPVoleon Capital who presumably working to control market + accumulate for Hedge funds /acquirers that have built such large positions, pre T/O , been short for some months, increased size of short in June, started unwind last Monday, first report of decrease 7/7Tick tock.

[urals] 10/7/2020 08:57

#GKPUS hedge funds appearing top 4 holders increasing MM try to suppress market share price as big hitters fill up pre incoming takeover John Paulson legend M+A now holds few million shares via Bright SpherePrecision Capital another US Hedge appears all of a suddenhttps://t.co/zMByo3zL4k

[urals] 10/7/2020 08:56

WHY THE TROLLS and CONDOG, BROADFRAUD ARE HERE 24/7The Shaikan structure has a footprint the size of Greater London, plus the side lobe and the Cretaceous flanks. It is riddled with fractures and voids which are full of liquid oil. The Jurassic oil column is 950 metres thick and there is another 350 metres in the Cretaceous and Triassic.ERCE valued the undiscounted 2P oil reserves at $3.067 billion. There are also massive 2C and 3P oil Resources, plus 200 million barrels of very light condensate. GKP said in 2014 that ERCE had only included 10% of the formations in the Reserves and that the Oil In Place “hadn’t gone anywhereâ€?.The 24/7 trolls like the BIGDOG and MCFRUITLOOP ,PATRIOTIC PADDY, BROADFRAUD etc etc try to persuade people reading the blog that GKP is not worth anything. But some of us know differently â€" and can prove it

[mcfly02] 10/7/2020 08:56

Good Morning Jamie 😃

I concur.

[broadford bay] 10/7/2020 08:47

Good morning Urinal,

just to set the record straight - and speaking for myself, although the others you mention appear also to share my view:

I have never said or even implied that GKP is worth nothing.

I often say, or imply, and continue to believe, that GKP is worth less, MUCH LESS than you and your other lying friends here state.

Clear?

[urals] 10/7/2020 07:40

#GKPUS hedge funds appearing top 4 holders increasing MM try to suppress market share price as big hitters fill up pre incoming takeover John Paulson legend M+A now holds few million shares via Bright SpherePrecision Capital another US Hedge appears all of a suddenhttps://t.co/zMByo3zL4k

[urals] 10/7/2020 07:40

WHY THE TROLLS and CONDOG, BROADFRAUD ARE HERE 24/7The Shaikan structure has a footprint the size of Greater London, plus the side lobe and the Cretaceous flanks. It is riddled with fractures and voids which are full of liquid oil. The Jurassic oil column is 950 metres thick and there is another 350 metres in the Cretaceous and Triassic.ERCE valued the undiscounted 2P oil reserves at $3.067 billion. There are also massive 2C and 3P oil Resources, plus 200 million barrels of very light condensate. GKP said in 2014 that ERCE had only included 10% of the formations in the Reserves and that the Oil In Place “hadn’t gone anywhereâ€?.The 24/7 trolls like the BIGDOG and MCFRUITLOOP ,PATRIOTIC PADDY, BROADFRAUD etc etc try to persuade people reading the blog that GKP is not worth anything. But some of us know differently â€" and can prove it

[highlander7] 10/7/2020 05:48

Sounds like the doggie has been on the bottle again and , after a decade , finally figured out what is going to happen, then realised how he has missed the boat - again. He is one bitter and unhappy bunny.

Talking about mirrors Doggie , if you want to know who it was lost you all your money - go look in one.

LOL

[pensioner2] 09/7/2020 23:37

Any 2nd wave looks as though it might be minimal if this is replicated. Get ready for a bounce in markets (and commodities) if this pans out.



It's subscription but you get the gist from the sample introduction.

[bigdog5] 09/7/2020 22:47

Did you look into a mirror to come up with that?