Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[gkp_banggone] 15/2/2019 11:31

XXXðŸ˜?SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈xxFrom IR 16th January 2019:-"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007. Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."=====+The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[tess_tickle] 15/2/2019 11:09

FRIGGING IN THE RIGGING

[gkp_banggone] 15/2/2019 10:29

ðŸ˜?SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈xxFrom IR 16th January 2019:-"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007. Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."=====+The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[gkp_banggone] 15/2/2019 10:29

Very good nest

[broadford bay] 15/2/2019 10:28

nesto,

I enjoyed your allegorical "Chocolate Mountain" contribution of 26th Nov-2018, you remember, don't you, the one you started with:
"Once upon a time a bullied Mountain people were looking for food...a whole Mountain made of chocolate..".

As you now seem determined to titivate our palates with ever more tinypic images and GIFs, may I ask - are you still at school - perhaps studying "Storytelling as an Art Form"?

And, as you defend "Hills", is he giving you private lessons?

Good luck with your studies!

Always here for you.

[mcfly02] 15/2/2019 10:19

Jamie,

I was thinking of letting them use my old Black and Decker ?

[daniel levi bmd] 15/2/2019 10:16

FYI


Coro Energy £10M-£20M Placing! It's A Shambles!


Dan
x

[nestoframpers] 15/2/2019 10:15

No point in trying Habshan , might as well.

[broadford bay] 15/2/2019 10:12

mac,

make sure you can take the pressure...

[mcfly02] 15/2/2019 10:04

Jamie,

I think I might pop over again and show them how it's done.

I also think they have the inability to learn from their previous mistakes a bit like some here.

[broadford bay] 15/2/2019 09:50

mac,

snub them...?