Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 11:29

The next Kurdish war is on the horizon

Turkey and Syria will never allow it to create a mini-state
Syria cannot countenance Kurdish presence on its territory and Turkey cannot tolerate a Kurdish enclave along its southern border, however secular, liberal and socialist it claims (not without reason) to be

[smiraha] 08/6/2018 11:19

IS these being done again?

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 11:18

Will anyone outbid DNO?

DNO is the largest of the Kurdistan producers in terms of both production and reserves. This morning’s statement made it clear that DNO is top dog in Kurdistan, and points out that Gulf Keystone is already dependent on its pipeline connection facilities.


hxxps://www.rolandhead.com/oil-gas/is-the-dno-bid-as-good-as-it-gets-for-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-shareholders/

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 11:15

DNO holds a 55 percent stake in and operates the Tawke oil field at a current production level of around 120,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of 27 degree API crude. Gulf Keystone holds a 58 percent stake in and operates the Shaikan oil field at a current level of around 40,000 bopd of 17 degree API crude.

Production from Shaikan is transported daily by road tanker to DNO’s unloading and storage hub at Fish Khabur for onward pipeline transport to export markets.


hxxps://www.rolandhead.com/oil-gas/is-the-dno-bid-as-good-as-it-gets-for-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-shareholders/

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 11:06

Gulf Keystone bulls will presumably believe that today’s offer from DNO is the opening salvo in a bidding war. Personally, I doubt this. My view is that other Kurdistan firms are unlikely to make a competing offer. DNO’s deep connections in the region give it an advantage. I can’t see an outsider wanting to get involved given the complexities and risks of operating in Kurdistan.


hxxps://www.rolandhead.com/oil-gas/is-the-dno-bid-as-good-as-it-gets-for-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-shareholders/

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 11:00

nestoframpers: go down to your local Chinese restaurant and order Crispy Acrobatic Duck, Sweet and Sour Pork, King Prawns Peking Style, Duck with Green Pepper in Black Bean Sauce, Beef in Oyster Sauce, Chicken Peking Style, Special Fried Rice and plenty of Tiger beers for your guests!

[tess_tickle] 08/6/2018 11:00

What does the DNO bid mean for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited shareholders?

This entry was posted on July 29, 2016 by Roland Head.
Onshore oil installationDisclosure: I have no financial interest in any company mentioned.

I’ll update this post when Gulf’s board issues a statement or any further news emerges.

Update 29/07/16 @ 1945: Gulf Keystone issued a response to the DNO proposal after the market closed today.

The firm says that as the DNO proposal is for a post-restructuring takeover, the firm’s focus remains firmly on executing the restructuring successfully. Significantly Gulf emphasises that:

“we will not engage in any additional process that causes the Company to be distracted from that objective” [the restructuring]

In my view this implies support for the DNO proposal. But even if I’m wrong, this story can only end one way. Gulf Keystone shares remain dramatically overvalued, in my opinion.


hxxps://www.rolandhead.com/oil-gas/is-the-dno-bid-as-good-as-it-gets-for-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-shareholders/

[martym] 08/6/2018 10:45

I truly feel this has turned a corner

[nestoframpers] 08/6/2018 10:45

I am glad GRH1 doesn't post any more , enough time wasters on here.

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 10:34

enormous chinese takeaway: here’s another angle on the valuations given by John Gerstenlauer and “The Minotaur”.

Canaccord gave a target price, at one point, of £5.20 per share. Using the 900 million shares figure that equates to £4.68 billion. Using the same exchange rate which I used above, for convenience, this represented some $7.3 billion.

Since then, of course, various things have occurred, including chaos with the oil price, increase in the GKP stake of Shaikan from 54.4% to 58%, reduction in the Capacity Building Tax from 40% to 30%, and argument about how the ERC Equipoise Reserves and Resources figures in their Shaikan Competent Person’s Report should be interpreted.

Yet the fact remains that Canaccord gave that figure, which some at the time thought was low. And it is in the same general ball park as the figures from award-winning journalist Mark Leftly (who had to change his job because of threats made against him), John Gerstenlauer and “The Minotaur”. And indeed we see a current GKP 2P NPV valuation in the ERC Equipoise Competent Person’s Report (0%) of $3.067 billion, based upon a 2018 oil price baseline assumption of $63 a barrel, and excluding the John Ferrier Condensate Correction.

We live, as they say, in interesting times.

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 10:19

enormous chinese takeaway: here’s another valuation angle.

TAQA paid $600 million for their 39.9% stake in Atrush, which is adjacent to Shaikan. The total Proved and Probable Reserves have recently been increased by McDaniel, and now stand at 102.7 million barrels.

Using this current figure, the TAQA stake represents 41 million barrels of 2P Reserves. So the price paid was $14.6 per 2P barrel on the current barrels.

Both TAQA and the Lundin Family (the major shareholders behind ShaMaran) have been very committed to Atrush.

Yet some people on here claim that Shaikan is worth almost nothing. Strange, don’t you think?

[oilman63] 08/6/2018 09:58

No not at all.

Just got friends in circles that you don't realise that have the same opinion as me.

Tip for you.

When in public keep mouth and ego in check 😘

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 09:57

Onto more important matters.

It appears that the AGM is not going to take place in June 2018 because GKP havecto give a minimum of three weeks notice. And with no RNS today about the AGM, it cannot now be held this month.

[oil_investor] 08/6/2018 09:55

Clearly obsessed.