Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[broadford bay] 09/6/2018 16:39

oil_investor,

your interpretation is both provocative and false - but that seems to be part of your "style", doesn't it?

You ignore the main point to which my posting drew attention: the very great disconnect between the "agreed" price and the inherent values.

2 Values:

#1 The contractual PSC entitlements, the extra 15%.
#2 The work done to date plus the capital investments made.

I'm sure MRO knocked heads with Abdullah for quite a time before accepting their fate.

Re. non-adherence to contractual terms - would you classify that as "fraud"?

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:27

Oh dear.

“Bigdog5”; continues to ignore the Triassic RNSs, the Triassic flowtest results, the Triassic Reserves and Resources Numbers from ERC Equipoise, CEO Jon Ferrier’s comments about the Triassic Condensate, and also the agreed Shaikan Field Development Plan.

If he is so concerned, he should surely contact GKP Chairman Jaap Huijskes and arrange a meeting with him.

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 16:22

Broadford Bay: you appear to be alleging some sort of fraud involving Marathon Oil. Are you?

If you look at Marathon, you will see that they have been losing money heavily. Their focus is their US assets. $60 million cash is very valuable in such circumstances. The alternative is not having that $60 million and potentially having to fund the next stages of capex at Atrush.

The Lundin Family seem content with the situation at Atrush. Unless you have hard evidence of fraud, the simplest explanation is simply that Marathon need cash and judged that $60 million was OK, in the strategic and tactical context. Small minority stakes can be problematic.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 15:47

More unknowns to consider. Why would the company not drill to the Triassic so as to blend the "alleged" better quality oil there with the Jurassic heavy? But it would seem they are willing to blend with the better quality oil from others.

If you can't prove it up it has little or zero value, innit.

[broadford bay] 09/6/2018 15:09

More questions to answer...

Why did Marathon only receive (accept?) $60M for the 15% increase?

Transfer of title in respect of the Contract entitlement or WI, seems clear enough - but what happened to Marathon's share of "the assets"; that capital already spent/invested in exploration, plant and equipment (and not yet returned to investors via the Cost Oil revenues)? All those wells, that shiny new PF, that nice new pipeline?
How much must that be worth?

Have they essentially written it off?
Is it perhaps in there at $50M, leaving just a nominal $10M for the 15%?
Did they try to sell to other parties?
Did they want out at any price?
Did Abdullah want them gone for being too hard-nosed and asking too many questions?
Did current FCPA investigations play any part in all of this?

It stinks.

The official statement reads:
"...an agreement to acquire a further 15% working interest in the Production Sharing Contract - Atrush Block, Kurdistan Region of Iraq dated 10th November 2007, as amended from time to time, (the "Atrush PSC") AND CERTAIN OTHER ASSETS from Marathon Oil KDV B.V. (the "Acquisition") for USD 60 million, SUBJECT TO FINAL CLOSING ADJUSTMENTS..."
(CAPS are mine)

It stinks.
It stinks to high heaven.

"It's all about the barrels!" - yeah, right.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 14:04

Meanwhile back in the real world GKP produce around 30k a day, down from 40k a day and a long way from Kozel's 150k by 2014.

Are we sure any of "his" numbers are now believable and they weren't used for troughing? I seem to recall Kozel was being paid a massive salary and huge bonuses based on OIP, which oddly enough climbed rather rapidly.

Should investors be asking whether the numbers of 13.7b or 25b or 50b are just BS?

One asset down from four. One zone down from four. Go figure.

[bigdog5] 09/6/2018 13:49

It would appear that the rampers desperation has hit new heights with posts being dragged up from 7/8 years ago.

However, the real issue to consider is have any of the predictions/analyses from 7/8 years ago been proved as valid? The answer is NO. Additional to that there's evidence that all is not good with problems of falling production, which is still to be addressed. Where's the Pathway to 55k a day?

The rampers overlook rather important points such as there's been no drills that produce from the Triassic. So what is really known about it, will it flow.

What do they know about the Permian apart from S7 was a costly disaster. Zero.

The Cretaceous notwithstanding the company's comments isn't worth spending on.

So that leaves just the Jurassic. Have they drilled deep, do they know what's there, will it flow easily, can they produce from there?

If you don't have proof it has little or zero value.

The share price has been hyped up on "clear pathway to 55k" and the fact that POO has risen greatly. P&D again?

sarah, when the minotaur is alleged to have stated that I would suggest he hadn't a clue about all the problems that were to come. DNO walked away from less than £1, go figure.

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:53

Was oil_investor ever a boxer?

"Bob & weave son, Bob and weave".

"Jab & block son, duck & dive"

"Bob, bob, bob, Bob"

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:48

We have moved on a year to 2012 LOFL!!


kiltless highlander9 Jun '18 - 09:05 - 566182 of 566197 Edit
0 8 0
Here we are again, tales of nonsense from 2011 (as predicted below), trying to be woven in to today's story!

Whatever happened to Scaramouche LOFL?

Now the PROVEN FALSE tales from 2011 are being repeated - WHY?

Talking about 20Blnbbls OIP again - WHY?

Talking about a feasible 100Blnbbls OIP - WHY??????? Surely, 3 of the 4 licences have been given up since.

What a comedy OR criminal show this is!



kiltless highlander - 29 May 2018 - 08:14:50 - 565015 of 566181 THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP

It was sold on April 11th 2018 the latest fairy story!

All these ridiculous predictions have one thing in common, there are NO factual events surrounding them, each one is a fantasy, spurious snippets of information (mainly from years back) twisted to death to suit the fantasy stories of today, by the same old agents.

It really is laughable OR then again, is it criminal?



oil_investor9 Jun '18 - 08:21 - 566176 of 566188

By
scaramouche :-

GKP's potential 100 BILLION barrels across all 4 licences is surely rather too much for just ONE oil super-major and perhaps.... more than enough for TWO!

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:47

Here he goes again digging into the distant past, as if GKP's rotten history has any meaning to today's situation.

Fishybits - What ever happened to him?





oil_investor9 Jun '18 - 10:43 - 566195 of 566196

Below is another one from him, during the Pantomime. Courtesy of Bullster and Fishybits.


Bullster Thursday 13 December 2012
Posted by scaramouche on iii.

[kiltless highlander] 09/6/2018 10:43

Either that, or they go into heavy desperate research mode oilman, and are not seen again for the rest of the day.

This is the price they pay, for having NO oil & gas qualifications.

[oil_investor] 09/6/2018 10:43

sarahgibbs: isn’t it strange how mention of “Scaramouche” has proved so contentious?

Below is another one from him, during the Pantomime. Courtesy of Bullster and Fishybits.

Note that the 1.87 billion barrels of GKP attributable recoverable oil, which Scaramouche calculates (even though “Oilman63/Phoenix100” says Scaramouche is nothing to do with oil) is essentially identical to the 1.88 billion barrels figure used by “The Minotaur” in his 10 May 2013 valuation.

In my opinion, “Scaramouche” makes some good points in his remarks below. I have consistently said that the key period in trying to understand what has been taking place is the one between the return from China of the GKP/Memery Crystal/Perella Weinberg team (all referenced in public domain Court documents), the associated Exit Awards, and the July 2012 AGM. Those who want to find out what has been going on would do better, in my opinion, to look closely at that window. What Scaramouche was saying is that Mirabaud appeared to be lowering expectations.

Hmmm.


...............................

Bullster Thursday 13 December 2012
Posted by scaramouche on iii.

Mirabaud: Valuation update

We calculate a Core NAV for GKP of 153p/shr based on a DCF analysis of the Shaikan field (149p/shr), assuming gross recoverable oil resources of 3.43 bn bbls, plus corporate items including option proceeds (4p/shr) and net debt (-0.4p). In addition, we have ascribed a further 73p/shr of risked appraisal value to existing discoveries and 7p/shr of risked exploration upside. The end result is a Total NAV of 233p/shr using a US$85/bbl LT Brent price and a 12% discount rate, although we would stress that these parameters may prove to be too conservative in the event of a takeover.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Recoverable resources of 3.43 billion barrels for Shaikan then.

So, Mirabaud are basing their calculations on a 25% RECOVERY FACTOR for Shaikan at present then, since the present 13.7 billion OIP (P50) x 25% = 3.43 billion barrels.

That sounds reasonable.... if slightly on the cautious side.

And if the recoverable resources from Shaikan = 3.43 billion....
this gives GKP a net WI of 54.4% x 3.43 billion = 1.87 billion barrels.

Still looking pretty good!

But then, Mirabaud have calculated Shaikan’s value at 149p per share.

With 876 million shares In issue, this means they are giving Shaikan a value of just £1.3 billion.

Hmmm.... If 1.87 billion barrels of recoverable resources attributable to GKP is worth only £1.3 billion …. Mirabaud is giving each barrel of oil recovered a value of just 70p!

Sounds unlikely!!

It wouldn't be so bad but Mirabaud has then ascribed a further 73p/shr of risked appraisal value to 'existing' discoveries.

What discoveries?

Sheikh Adi - 1.9 billion (P50) x 80% net WI = 1.52 billion barrels. And even at 25% RF that gives us just 380 million barrels recoverable.

Akri-Bijeel - 2.4 billion (P50) x 12.8% Net WI = 307 million barrels. And at 25% RF this would amount to 77 million barrels recoverable.

So, those existing discoveries amount to 380 million + 77 million barrels recoverable = 457 million barrels, yet are worth 73p per share.

Meanwhile, Shaikan's 1.87 BILLION recoverable (which is FOUR times the estimated total for AB & SA) is only worth TWICE as much (i.e 149p against 73p).

Very strange.

Mirabaud is somehow valuing Shaikan oil at only 70p per recoverable barrel, and assessing the rest, which has yet to be proved, at about 140p per barrel.

At the $85 per barrel they are also using, GKP would actually NET about $6.60 or £4 profit oil per barrel by my calculations.

And Mirabaud are supposed to be GKP's house broker. Why would they be de-ramping GKP to such an extent, I wonder?

Most peculiar indeed - and I thought that we were just up against Excalibur at the moment.

GLA, scaramouche

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[oilman63] 09/6/2018 10:38

Just to note 🤔🤔🤔

When I ask questions that people can't or don't like to answer they tend to run away and send the kids out to play 😱😱😱