All roads point to the most obvious incoming takeover in history.This month. |
I was hoping for $2.5 a bll , if a MOC muscles in prior to resolution then GKP might go for as little as $11 Bn. |
 Arcadian - "It has already accepted central authority over oil, managing, exporting etc. It was exporting but Baghdad shut it down."
Three things there:-
a) - Baghdad didn't shut the pipeline down, Turkey did.
b) - The only thing the Kurds have accepted is that in exchange for 400kbpd Baghdad would send the Kurds their share of the budget which is $1.6 billion a month, and who could refuse a deal like that.
But even that deal needed the approval of APIKUR because under the PSCs, which the Appeals Court have ruled legal and binding, it's the IOCs who are sovereign over marketing not the KRG and certainly not Baghdad. Only APIKUR can decide who markets the oil:-
Sami Zouari, Dublin 2016:-
"Concerning marketing rights. It is already in the PSC that companies are sovereign over marketing, but all producers have accepted the fact that the MNR is selling the oil on our behalf."
APIKUR have said that they want to be paid directly on the sale of the oil by SOMO at Ceyhan, if the ICG don't agree to that then APIKUR can say OK in that case you don't get to market it, we'll market it ourselves or the KRG can market it for us as they did before.
c) - In September the ITP agreement expires and when that happens Turkey will no longer need permission from Baghdad to export Kurdish oil.
For nine years Turkey and the Kurds exported up to 500kbpd of Kurdish oil while Baghdad whinged whined bleated screamed and stamped their feet and nobody gave a damn what they thought.
And come September Turkey and the Kurds will be able to just ignore them again if they so wish, but this time without any threat of legal proceedings.
A year ago:-
DNO CEO - "We do know that the pipeline will reopen because in September next year the contract between Turkey and Iraq for the use of that pipeline ends, Turkey can then do with the pipeline what it wants without any further exposure to the legal side. Once the existing arrangements end they will end and the pipeline will reopen." |
All roads now point to September. It’s not that far away. The KRG / Turkey must already be talking. US backing will be key. |
Habs
All recent events,policies etc show Bazarni complaining and sending groups to Baghdad to pleade. The centre is greedy. It now wants all and gas doesn`t pay the salaries due.It has stopped the use of the pipeline etc
Baghdad won`t change so Erbil must. It has already accepted central authority over oil, managing, exporting etc. It was exporting but Baghdad shut it down.
How can this change? |
Our only friends are the mountains. |
Correct .We need to ignore the noiseThe company is obviously sold TBACEO STAY BONUS AWARD gets paid in January....Fill yer boots |
And yet BP continues its move into Kurdistan. These are certainly interesting, and frustrating, times. |
"The kurds need to cut off Baghdad once and for all."
Hehehe.
Reminds me of a headline in the Telegraph back in the day:-
"FOG IN CHANNEL, CONTINENT CUT OFF".
But yes I agree, the Kurds need financial independence and I think that's what they're working towards in September. They can't go on like this and won't give up their constitutional rights. |
We need to ignore the noiseThe company is obviously sold TBACEO STAY BONUS AWARD gets paid in January....Fill yer boots |
The kurds need to cut off Baghdad once and for all. |
Arcadian is a troll. |
Habs
Put simply. It`s not working so The Kurds need to leave. |
It would be good if the person who just ticked up Arcadian's post could explain wtf he's talking about. |
Unless there is constitutional change September will be meaningless as the central government will still retain its current power demonstrated by its initiatives in Kirkuk etc It shut the pipeline and it`s authority to do so has been accepted by all parties and recently Baghdad has been slowly centralizing authority over the management of oil operations , finance etc so unless there is a new stance by the Kurds little will change as Barzani seems to bow down to the central government moaning occasionally to no effect despite countless delegations to Baghdad
By September this authority could well have increased so that without its permission September as envisaged by some would not materialize unless that is Sudani sees that the way to avoid dissent in the Southern regions is by reactivating the Kurdish arrangements which have been found to be legal. He could justify the move by pointing to the losses to the people of Iraq. They have difference and are losing money with their syuben approach but if they are so entrenched in their desire to do down the Kurds they are not likely to allow them to start exporting again in September.
The Kurds need to go it alone for everyone`s sake, Barzani ranted and has talked to Turkey. He need to seek out Trump and make promises.. What is keeping him back? |
In truth though we have no idea they might have been preparing. Trump2 says to me, no time like the present. |
.
Kurdistan Seceding may be on the agenda, but not in the very near term. Needs to prepare in detail for such an event and should be preparing now, if not already started.
Keep on with the local sales until September and then look to export through Turkey.
. |
Bigdog - "However, KRG leaders had previously insisted on a higher rate of $26 per barrel due to the elevated costs of oil extraction in the region, leading to the compromise figure of $16".
We can only wonder why the costs are elevated!!! Is that what Baghdad seek to understand?
The costs aren't elevated in Kurdistan Sarah, the problem is that like you the dummies in Baghdad pretend not to understand the difference between a TSC and a PSC.
The costs in Federal Iraq and Kurdistan are the same:-
Draw Media 4 weeks ago - "The prevailing situation in Iraq primarily involves service contracts, with costs in areas like Gayara reaching $26 to $27 per barrel. This disparity raises the question of why companies are requesting only $20 for operations in the Kurdistan Region."
In Federal Iraq the MoO are quite happy to pay costs of $27.
Costs are a red herring, it's about dismantling the Federal System and imposing centralised control from Baghdad.
And the Kurds are having none of it. |
Do you have anything else to contribute? Yawn |
We need to ignore the noiseThe company is obviously sold TBACEO STAY BONUS AWARD gets paid in January....Fill yer boots |
Ok so we have the Iranian backed part of the parliament throwing unacceptable spanners in the works at the last minute to block any deal. To be expected.
The question now is have they enough support to make them stick ? I doubt it.
Wait...let this work its way through and out.
IMO |
"Prime Minister Sudani has proposed a new clause demanding that the Kurdistan Regional Government hand over its natural gas and oil components to Baghdad. The new clause is part of the Iraqi government's efforts to secure control over the oil and gas resources in the Kurdistan Region."
Lonepilgrim - "What on earth is Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani playing at, this would never get through a vote and he would know this."
I entirely agree, and I think he's been spooked by this:-
Two days ago - "Several lawmakers have called for the inclusion of a provision in the budget that would allocate financial resources to other provinces."
The VERY LAST thing the Federal Government can afford is the other regions and provinces suddenly demanding their constitutional right to manage their own resources as that could lead to the break up of the country, so it looks to me as though he's scuppered the Kurdish exports issue so that he can't be seen letting the Kurds manage their own oil and gas while denying the rights of everyone else.
The Kurds will NEVER surrender their constitutional rights and give Baghdad control and Sudani knows that, he knows that the inclusion of that clause is a deal breaker for the Kurds.
Here's the danger:-
"Judge Schwebel's analysis meticulously dissects the 2005 Iraqi Constitution, affirming that the distribution of power heavily favours regional governments, like the KRG, over the Federal Government in matters of natural resource management. Central to his argument is the interpretation of Articles 110, 114, 115, and 121, which collectively do not grant the Federal Government exclusive authority over oil and gas resources. Instead, these articles empower regions to manage the production of oil and gas within their territories." |
I think today was the Iraqi government's last chance. And they fked it. |
The Kurdistan Region's General Board of Kurdistan Areas Outside the Region hails the Iraqi Parliament's passing of the Kurdish-backed Property Restitution Law as a historic achievement, acknowledging the joint efforts of the Kurdistan Regional Government, parliament members, and Baghdad officials. The Board congratulates the people of Kurdistan and hopes this will lead to full implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution. |
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