Guangdong Development Fund Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 06/8/2012 12:00

MOUVEMENTS ET NIVEAUX


Le titre est orienté à la hausse. Il est au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile 50 jours. La moyenne mobile à 20 jours est supérieure à la moyenne mobile à 50 jours. Le support est à 16.81 EUR, puis à 15.74 EUR et la résistance est à 20.53 EUR, puis à 21.07 EUR.

Dernier cours : 19.11
Support : 16.81 / 15.74
Resistance : 20.53 / 21.07
Opinion court terme : négative
Opinion moyen terme : négative

[waldron] 06/8/2012 11:51

GDF Suez Agrees To Sell 1.6 Million tons of Gas to Korea's Kogas
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Gdf Suez (EU:GSZ)
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Today : Monday 6 August 2012
French power company GDF Suez (GSZ.FR) Monday said it agreed to sell 24 cargoes of liquefied natural gas, or about 1.6 million tons, to South Korean public natural gas company Korea Gas Corp. (036460.SE) over 2013 and 2014.
MAIN FACTS:
- This is GDF Suez's fifth such agreement in the region.
- GDF Suez seeks to contribute to the development of the liequefied gas market in Asia Pacific, where it considers growth prospects are promising.
- In 2010, GDF SUEZ and KOGAS reached a first agreement for the delivery by GDF SUEZ of 41 cargoes (about 2.5 million tons of LNG) between 2010 and 2013.
- KOGAS is the largest LNG importer in the world, and the main natural gas supplier of South Korea. It operates three LNG regasification terminals.
-Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]
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[waldron] 06/8/2012 08:00

Utility GDF Suez's H1 sales boosted by cold winter
Published August 02, 2012
Associated Press

PARIS – Franco-Belgian utility GDF Suez saw its revenue rise 10.6 percent in the first half of the year, driven in part by a late-winter cold snap and a particularly chilly spring in France.

But income at the partially state-owned company slid 14.9 percent to €2.3 billion ($2.8 billion) as compared to the same period last year, when the bottom line was boosted by capital gains. Revenue for the January-to-June period was €50.5 billion.

The increase in revenue helped push the company's share price up 2 percent in morning trading Thursday on the Paris bourse.

The stock price was likely also buoyed by the company's announcement that it would be recouping €290 million from customers that it lost when the government froze gas prices at the end of last year - a freeze which has since been overturned. The company said it would recoup the sum over time but did not specify how long.

The Paris-based company confirmed its goals of achieving recurring net income of between €3.7 billion and €4.2 billion for the year.

But that goal assumes successful negotiations with the French government over the state-mandated limit in gas prices. In July, the government said gas prices couldn't rise more than 2 percent - even though the French energy regulator said a 7.3 percent increase would be needed to cover costs. GDF Suez is now in talks with the government.

The group said that if the price issue isn't resolved, its earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization - an important measure of profitability - would take a €30 million hit in the third quarter. The impact would be even greater in the last quarter of the year.

"The fact that tariffs (prices) must reflect costs, it's not a dream," said CEO Gerard Mestrallet. "It is an obligation, an absolute obligation."

While the group credited some of its revenue gain to expansion into developing markets, much of it came from its home base in France. Unseasonably cold weather pushed sales there up 17.5 percent in the first half.



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[waldron] 04/8/2012 11:51

4spiel

Good Luck with any new threads you might create

enjoy your weekend

[4spiel] 04/8/2012 10:20

The edf thread Waldron is missing an operating chart.It might be activated or alternatively I have thought of the possible usefulness of having a European Utilities thread with charts for each as a resource thread covering EDF EON RWE ENEL(Possibly Iberdrola and Endessa.too. EDF lets face it was 80 euros in 2008 and currently 20% of that and so obviously becoming interesting at these levels with the usual caveatsnot least the positive and negative aspects of nuclear-a big component. Once set up maintenance fairly minimal. I think one needs to be open minded as to the future when one looks at BP at the present time. That new opportunities arise at different stages of ebbs and flows

[waldron] 04/8/2012 08:05

Barclays belässt GDF Suez auf 'Equal Weight' - Ziel 20 EuroLONDON (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Die britische Investmentbank Barclays hat die Einstufung für GDF Suez nach Halbjahreszahlen auf "Equal Weight" mit einem Kursziel von 20,00 Euro belassen

[waldron] 03/8/2012 17:24

4spiel

i think you'll find very few posters are interested
in non UK shares so you can post to your hearts content

i use my threads and others as aide memoires

[4spiel] 03/8/2012 16:59

Thanks Waldron ! I read the search when I was tired and missed the EDF.Thread is perfectly good and will utilise when have time as not wishing to make a disproportionate case for EDF . (also for comment on RHO tread - these days we have resource factors supply factors country factors and differing currency factors and movements but immensely interesting.

[waldron] 03/8/2012 16:17

4spiel

yep only GDF here

but there is a edf THREAD but not really used



why not start your own thread

or feel free to post on this thread if you need
somewhere to post as an aid memoire

[4spiel] 03/8/2012 15:51

Are you exclusively GDF here now ?. I have taken a toe into EDF - independent resources for their supply and global reach. Much cheaper share than it used to be. Their corporate bonds not much yield. Looking at least 6% on equity here current year -interesting to see their 7% loyalty bonus for holding two years recently announced. As always part only of a well diversified portfolio balancing other risks !

[waldron] 02/8/2012 16:00

source: the connexion

GDF seeks €290m from gas customers
August 02, 2012
GDF Suez is to claim back €290 million from domestic gas customers in France after a prize freeze imposed by former prime minister François Fillon in the last quarter of 2011 was ruled illegal.

It comes after the Conseil d'Etat ruled last month that the prize freeze was not valid and gave the gas operator the green light to bill customers retoactively.

It will amount to an average of about €40 on top of the ordinary gas bill, for the seven million homes in France that use gas heating.

GDF said it would bill this amount in smaller instalments to "reduce the impact on customers' cashflow".

The new French government has pledged to cap gas price rises at 2% - which GDF estimates will cost the group €30 million this year.

The company is still in negotiations with the government about potential changes to the pricing structure, and opening up the "social" tariffs for low-income households to more people.

[waldron] 02/8/2012 12:26

Bilfinger Berger Unit Wins Dutch Natural Gas Service Contract
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Gdf Suez (EU:GSZ)
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Today : Thursday 2 August 2012
Bilfinger Berger SE (GBF.XE) Thursday said its engineering services unit Tebodin has been awarded a contract by Dutch natural gas producer Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij, or NAM, for all of its onshore facilities.
MAIN FACTS:
-Tebodin won the contract in a consortium with partners Cofely, a unit of GDF Suez SA (GSZ.FR), and Hak Leidingbouw.
-The two partners will provide construction and assembly work.
-The consortium will provide services valued at several hundred million euros for five years.
-NAM is Netherland's largest natural gas producer, representing about 75% of total gas production in the country.
-Bilfinger Berger acquired Tebodin in February 2012.

-Frankfurt Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; 49-69-29725-500
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[ariane] 02/8/2012 08:51

GDF Suez, Partners to Invest EUR1.7 Billion in Cygnus North Sea Gas Field
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Gdf Suez (EU:GSZ)
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Today : Thursday 2 August 2012
By Inti Landauro
PARIS--French power company GDF Suez (GSZ.FR) and its partners will invest up to 1.7 billion euros ($2.07 billion) to develop the Cygnus gas field in the North Sea, the largest discovery in the region in 25 years, the company said Thursday.
GDF Suez will hold a 38.75% stake in the venture and will operate, while partners Centric Energy and Bayerngas will hold 48.75% and 12.5% respectively. Proven and probable reserves at the field are estimated at 18 billion cubic feet, GDF Suez said in a statement.
The company, in a separate venture in with partners First Oil Expro Ltd. and Hansa Hydrocarbons Ltd., will develop the Juliet natural gas field, also located in the North Sea. GDF Suez holds a 51.56% stake in the Juliet field while its two partners hold 29.44% and 19%, respectively.
GDF Suez hasn't provided any investment estimate for the Juliet field.
-Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]
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[ariane] 02/8/2012 07:16

GDF Suez Confirms Guidance After Strong First-Half
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Gdf Suez (EU:GSZ)
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Today : Thursday 2 August 2012
By Geraldine Amiel
PARIS--GDF Suez SA (GSZ.FR) Thursday confirmed its full-year guidance after posting a 4.2% increase in first-half earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, lifted by higher power output and tariffs, as well as additional revenue from the full integration of U.K.-based International Power PLC.
The group still expects 2012 net profit of between 3.7 billion euros ($4.5 billion) and EUR4.2 billion, a figure it had revised upward from an initial forecast of EUR3.5 billion to EUR4 billion when it acquired the minority shares of International Power in late June.
The first-half performance and the reiterated guidance underscored GDF Suez's growth strategy, centered on fast-growing markets, notably in Latin America. The acquisition of International Power has increased its exposure to emerging markets at a time when the sovereign debt crisis has slowed growth in most of its European markets.
The group's strategy, which involved a major internal reshuffle, will be put to the test by Europe's deteriorating economy. It also faces rapid changes in the global gas market with the potential emergence of the U.S. as a liquefied natural gas exporter following the shale gas boom there.
The environment "is clearly difficult," the group's chairman and chief executive Gerard Mestrallet said during a conference call.
In the first half, GDF Suez's Ebitda increased to EUR9.24 billion from EUR8.86 billion. Analysts had been expecting Ebitda of EUR9.18 billion. Net profit though dropped 15% to EUR2.33 billion from EUR2.74 billion a year earlier. This was roughly in line with average expectations of EUR2.36 billion from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of five analysts.
Revenue over the period grew 10.6% to EUR50.5 billion from EUR45.68 billion.
Mr. Mestrallet said that GDF Suez "will pursue the continuous improvement of its financial and industrial performances, especially thanks to a strong action of cost-reduction and control of investments." In the second half this year, "in an economic environment that promises to be difficult, the group will pursue its action plan aimed at optimizing costs and group performance."
Over the past six months, the group's shares lost around 12% of their value due to general concerns over the economic environment in Europe. Some analysts also said the group overpaid to acquire International Power's minority share-holdings. Shares closed Wednesday at EUR18.29.
-Write to Geraldine Amiel at [e-mail]
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[ariane] 01/8/2012 20:07

source: seekingalpha.com


GDF Suez: A European Giant Continues To Turn Outward
August 1, 2012 by: Morningstar | about: GDFZY.PK, includes: EONGY.PK By Mark Barnett

After completing its full acquisition of International Power in June, GDF Suez (GDFZY.PK) now owns the largest independent power generation portfolio in the world with 117 gross gigawatts of capacity. With a mix of long-term contracted and open generation, GDF enjoys cash flow stability, significant upside to higher power prices, and growing power usage in its major markets. The IPR deal augments its expansion into fast-growing markets outside of Europe and supports our belief that GDF's combination of operational resilience, financial strength, asset quality, and growth opportunities makes it more attractive than peers Enel, E.ON (EONGY.PK), Iberdrola, and RWE, which have similar or greater levels of eurozone exposure.

Most diversified European utilities invested abroad during the last decade, but GDF's position outside of Europe and North America is, in our view, the most robust. The diversified space is a frothy one, as Europe's utility giants frequently trade assets, move in and out of countries, and create complex holding structures, earning themselves healthy conglomerate discounts. GDF has swapped its share of assets, but the merger with Suez in 2008 set a decisive course toward expanding power generation development outside of core European markets. The subsequent IPR acquisition has amplified this move, adding significant capacity in Asia and the Middle East and boosting the growth pipeline in Latin America.

On a gross basis, 53% of the company's 117 GW fleet is located outside of Europe. Prior to closing the acquisition of the final 30% of IPR, GDF generated nearly 40% of its power output outside of Europe and North America, including 15% from Latin America; these figures will continue to rise with full integration and as projects totaling roughly 12.5 GW are completed. GDF generated 23% of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from power generation outside of Europe and North America in 2011, a figure that also will increase. Compare this with Iberdrola, which generates 30% of its output outside of Europe and North America (nearly all in Latin America); or Electricite de France, E.On, and RWE, which generate nearly all output within Europe. GDF's international breadth -- from the United States to Brazil to Poland to the Middle East to China -- is unmatched.

A Worldly Sense of Well-Being

GDF's exposure to markets outside of Europe is crucial to its future growth and profitability. Higher taxes, renewable subsidies, environmental concerns, and regulated tariff changes are pressuring European utilities' earnings. In many ways, the perception of country risk is being turned on its head. While emerging markets have continued to honor contracts, support growth, and welcome large companies with the expertise required to modernize their infrastructure, Europe's policymakers have moved in the opposite direction. The largest emphasis on growth has come from renewables, which remain a relatively inefficient and high-cost generation source. Otherwise, taxes on energy companies (and industry in general) have risen and electricity market policy generally has been inconsistent and at times incomprehensible (read: Belgian and German plans to shutter all nuclear plants). Regulators have clamped down on utility profits, even at the consistent gas and power delivery cash cows that fed European utilities' investments abroad.

GDF is no exception to the bruising being delivered in Europe. In France, its gas distribution business has suffered tariff freezes, lower allowed returns, and increased taxes. The French courts ultimately have overruled the government's efforts to conceal the real cost of natural gas from voters, but persistent efforts from the nominally conservative Nicolas Sarkozy government and now Francois Hollande's new Socialist administration point to continuing trouble. In Belgium, the new government has committed to closing its three nuclear reactors at Doel (by 2016) and Tihange (by 2025), planning to fill the hole in baseload capacity with volatile gas and a pie-in-the-sky projection of new renewable generation. These nukes have been pillars of GDF's profits in Europe (despite increasing nuclear levies), generating EUR 650 million of EBITDA in 2007 by the company's estimate. That figure is lower today because of increasing levies but still would represent only 3% of our 2015 EBITDA forecast. We believe there will be further developments here, as new generation investments in other technologies are difficult to justify based on regional power prices.

This brings us to another fundamental weakness for European utilities -- pricing and demand. Heavy investment in renewables along with low dispatch costs, tepid demand, and state market intervention are weighing on spreads for almost all forms of generation, with the interesting exception of coal plants that are benefiting from relatively high local gas prices. As it's impossible to build new coal plants in most of the core eurozone, and with nuclear on its way out, gas and renewables are the only game in town. Gas generation's spreads, however, are razor thin almost everywhere and have gone negative in parts of Germany, for example. We see no economic incentive for developers to pursue new capacity in the current environment. Governments have axed renewable subsidies, even though they remain generous, and GDF's European renewables development effort is a small part of the overall business. The company is shutting down and selling its least competitive European capacity to focus its cash outside of Europe. While its peers are quick to tout their plans for diversification outside of Europe, GDF already has achieved it in a big way.

What Else Will the IPR Transaction Accomplish?

Following the acquisition, GDF management is targeting EUR 197 million-EUR 225 million of synergies from within International Power and an additional EUR 17 million at GDF Suez. Our forecasts remain in line with this guidance, but there could be upside. Realized synergies from its initial 70% acquisition began at EUR 90 million, but resulted in more than EUR 135 million and came in ahead of schedule.

We further expect GDF to begin buying out selective minority holders in IPR immediately, which will cost up front but could add additional synergies over time, especially on taxation and dividends to the parent. Expansion in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East should help drive future business and strengthen relationships with key decision-makers in government, a crucial ingredient to winning development bids. We do believe strategic minorities will remain, as government partners and powerful regional companies are frequently valuable allies and a foot in the door to new business elsewhere in a given region.

In our view, it is too early to speculate (as some have) that competition in China and India will quickly crowd out premium returns on such projects. Most BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) power developers lack the expertise to pursue projects like these on their own. China's developers, who would have access to the greatest financing firepower, are still tainted by other Chinese industrial companies' frightful record of shoddy construction and operations. Over time, we expect this gap will close and partnerships with GDF and its peers likely will help accelerate development.

GDF's Shares Look Cheap, and Its Yield Is Hard to Match

GDF has taken a pounding along with the rest of the European utility landscape, as eurozone shakiness, tepid European economic data, and regulatory and political challenges have frightened investors out of the sector. But we see opportunity for investors to buy these businesses at significant discounts to fair values and consider GDF a top option for investors seeking yield and long-term growth. However, as we've discussed, there are significant risks. Commodity exposure, political intervention, regulatory setbacks, and the difficulty of parsing complex holding structures and accounting statements are major concerns.

Trading at just 10.6 times our 2012 earnings estimate and 8.8 times our 2014 earnings estimate, GDF's shares look appealing. However, given the relatively large contribution to cash flows of volatile and commodity-linked businesses, we prefer to also look at diversified utilities on an enterprise value/EBITDA basis. GDF trades at just 5.7 times our 2012 EBITDA estimate and just 5.2 times our 2014 EBITDA estimate. While we acknowledge the hair on this one, we think it's too attractive an entry point to ignore given the quality of the underlying businesses, the strength of GDF's balance sheet, and the significant upside to global growth and power markets.

Income-oriented investors often look to the dividend yield as both a significant component of total return and a barometer of expectations for a dividend cut in the future. With its shares yielding nearly 8.3%, GDF should both tempt potential investors and worry current and potential shareholders. We've seen this one before, right? Enel, E.ON, and RWE all saw dividend yields reach similar heights before financial troubles and significant future cash flow reduction led to big cuts in the dividend.

Could GDF be at similar risk of a dividend cut? We don't believe so. GDF's dividend is strongly supported by its regulated operations in France and its services segments with long-term contracted cash flows. We forecast GDF will pay out roughly EUR 10.3 billion in dividends in 2013-15 and generate about EUR 12.8 billion of EBITDA from those two business segments alone. On a consolidated basis, we expect free cash flow to the firm net of maintenance and growth capital expenditures to total EUR 12.4 billion during that same time period. In our view, cutting the dividend would not be a matter of necessity but of choice. On that track, the French government relies on GDF for a significant chunk of revenue from dividends -- more than EUR 1 billion annually. This combination of factors gives us confidence that GDF's dividend is safe and that the yield reflects our view that the shares are highly undervalued

[waldron] 30/7/2012 13:26

MOUVEMENTS ET NIVEAUX


Le titre est orienté à la hausse. Il est au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile 50 jours. La moyenne mobile à 20 jours est supérieure à la moyenne mobile à 50 jours. Le support est à 15.15 EUR, puis à 14.61 EUR et la résistance est à 18.44 EUR, puis à 19.54 EUR.

Dernier cours : 17.96
Support : 15.15 / 14.61
Resistance : 18.44 / 19.54
Opinion court terme : neutre
Opinion moyen terme :

[waldron] 29/7/2012 14:17

Thursday 2 august 2012

2012 half-year results

[waldron] 25/7/2012 16:00

2nd UPDATE: UK Government Boosts Role Of Gas In Energy Plans
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Centrica (LSE:CNA)
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Today : Wednesday 25 July 2012
--UK government announces tax relief to secure more North Sea gas investment
--Centrica gives green light to Cygnus gas field development after announcement
--Government confirms a bigger role for gas in power generation than previously anticipated
(Adds Centrica CEO comment, detail.)

By Selina Williams
LONDON--The U.K. government Wednesday announced tax relief designed to secure more investment in North Sea gas fields, just as it cut financial support to onshore wind by 10% and confirmed a bigger role for natural gas in power generation than was previously anticipated.
Shortly after the announcement, U.K. utility Centrica PLC (CNA.LN) gave the green light to a 1.4 billion-pound investment in the Cygnus gas field it is developing in the North Sea with partners GDF Suez SA (GSZ.FR) and Bayerngas, saying the tax decision had removed a major obstacle to the project.
At peak production Cygnus will produce enough gas to meet 5% of U.K. demand. First production is expected by the end of 2015.
Gas is expected to play a central role meeting everyday energy demand beyond 2030, meaning it will not be restricted to just providing backup for intermittent renewables such as wind power, the government said. This signals a shift in energy policy towards the fossil fuel, which emits less carbon than oil or coal, but environmental groups say is not clean enough to meet long-term emissions targets.
"Gas is the single biggest source of energy in the U.K. Today the government is signaling its long-term commitment to the role it can play in delivering a stable, secure and lower-carbon energy mix," U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in a statement.
"As the U.K. becomes increasingly dependent on imported gas, today's announcement represents a significant boost to the U.K.'s long-term energy security as well as creating much-needed jobs," said Centrica Chief Executive Sam Laidlaw.
The U.K. Treasury's new tax relief for shallow-water gas fields will give developers relief from a tax called the supplementary charge of 32% on the first 500 million pounds ($776 million) of income. This will give up to GBP160 million of tax relief to an individual project.
The tax relief for gas fields was in a package that included a 10% cut to onshore wind financial support and an increase in support for wave and tidal energy for small projects up to 30 megawatts in size. The subsidy for offshore wind will remain the same until 2015, when it would start to slowly come down as technology costs fall.
The debate over the role of renewables in the energy mix in the U.K. mirrors similar discussions in many European countries, where the practice of paying out costly subsidies for clean energy technologies to meet climate targets is bumping up against the reality of austerity budgets amid the continent's debt crisis.
It also comes as many politicians in Europe are hoping that recent shale gas discoveries could one day translate into significantly cheaper natural gas prices, as they have done in the U.S.
The U.K.'s latest decisions come at a critical juncture for its energy infrastructure and will have an impact for decades to come.
Around one fifth of Britain's power generating capacity is due to close over the next decade as aging nuclear and coal plants are shuttered. The government wants to ensure that billions of pounds of investment required in new generation capacity is forthcoming.
Supporters of gas-fired power say it is more reliable, and faster and cheaper to build than renewables such as wind, solar, wave and tidal power, all of which require significant levels of extra financial support. They also say it could be a cheaper way to meet binding European Union greenhouse gas emissions targets for 2020.
However, critics argue that relying on gas could leave the U.K. dependent on energy imports with volatile prices and lock in harmful emissions for a longer period. Carbon capture and storage technology, which could in theory allow even tighter emissions targets beyond 2020 to be reached while still burning fossil fuels, is expensive and untested at a commercial scale, they say.
Current high gas prices have also weakened the commercial case for the fuel. Many companies have shuttered gas power plants in the past 18 months as cheaper coal has become the fuel of choice.
"We have mothballed gas stations around the system and there's no evidence in the current market that anyone is prepared to invest sufficiently in gas to make up for all this nuclear and coal coming off the system this decade," said energy economist and professor at Oxford University, Dieter Helm.
Write to Selina Williams at [e-mail]
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[waldron] 25/7/2012 15:38

Centrica:UK Government Tax Relief Allows Cygnus Gas Project To Proceed
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Centrica (LSE:CNA)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Wednesday 25 July 2012
By Selina Williams
LONDON--U.K. utility Centrica PLC (CNA.LN) Wednesday gave the green light to the 1.4 billion-pound ($2.2 billion) Cygnus gas project it is developing in the North Sea with partners GDF Suez SA (GSZ.FR) and Bayerngas after the U.K. government's announcement earlier in the day of tax relief for shallow-water gas fields.
The allowance enhances the economics of the Cygnus project, the largest gas discovery in the Southern North Sea for 25 years, and enables Centrica to proceed with the development, the company said.
"For Centrica, this is an extremely significant project as we look to unlock remaining gas in the North Sea, securing U.K. gas supplies for our customers," Centrica Chief Executive Sam Laidlaw said.
At peak production Cygnus will produce enough gas to meet 5% of U.K. demand. Production is expected by the end of 2015.
The U.K. Treasury's announcement will give developers relief from a tax called the supplementary charge of 32% on the first GBP500 million of income. This will give up to GBP160 million of tax relief to an individual project, a Treasury spokesman said.
Industry association Oil & Gas U.K. said the government's move should trigger the development of specific gas projects totalling GBP2.4 billion investment.
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