Group Nbt Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 16/8/2010 10:19

a real turnaround in the chart - very bullish now.

[philanderer] 10/8/2010 08:43

Tipped again in the DTelegraph:

"Questor share tip: Group NBT remains confident of growth"

[spacecake] 09/8/2010 16:27

Positive trading statement exceeding forecasts.

[spacecake] 22/7/2010 16:49

Oh dear, not a share traded today... another forgotten small cap

[spacecake] 19/7/2010 22:31

Trading update due this month.

[nellie1973] 19/7/2010 21:12

Tipped in newspaper again!!

[nellie1973] 12/7/2010 04:34

Tipped in papers

[dasv] 25/5/2010 17:29

think he's going to wish he sold the lot. The chart looks evil. Glad I sold out ages ago.

[exotic] 25/5/2010 13:26

RNS Number : 5058M
Group NBT PLC
25 May 2010

?
NBT.L


Group NBT plc
("Group NBT" or "the Company")

Director's Dealings

Group NBT was notified yesterday that Keith Young MBE, Non-Executive Director
and Deputy Chairman, sold 100,000 ordinary shares of 1 pence each ("Shares") in
the Company on 24 May 2010 at a price of 275 pence per Share.

Mr Young now has a beneficial holding of 887,432 Shares representing 3.43% of
the Company's issued share capital.

[serratia] 11/3/2010 10:03

Agreed Shuisky,

For my spread sheets I work off cash generated from operations.NBT's share price varies between 6 and 9 times the following years operational cash flow.The half year figures are in line with my target of £9.4m for this year.Taking a conservative rise to £10.7m for next year gives a price range high to low of 425p/280p.
If nothing changes I would see a drift up to 400p over the next year.I am fully invested here but would buy again at 280p.I don't expect to see the latter unless we have another market collapse.

[shuisky] 11/3/2010 08:00

Revs up 13%

Underkying EPS up 31%

Net Cash now around 11% of market cap

40% hike in the divi

Acquisitions bedding in well.

Highly cash generative, and all of this is the middle of a recession.

These are very strong numbers, but you'd have to pinch yourself to believe it from the commentary! There are a number of cautious comments in it. The management clearly believe in telling it how it is. Will have to dig deeper and look into these numbers closer, but on first glance they look very good.

With better economic growth forecast for 2010, I think they will trounce current full year estimates. Rolling underlying diluted EPS is 23.54p which is way ahead of the 21.87p consensus for 2010 full year.

Simililarly underlying pre tax is at 4.03m for the first half. Full year consensus is at 7.65m.

It is possible that the consensus numbers dont exclude amortisation, but IMHO they should, because the better judge of a company is sustainable cash flow generation. If you normalise the tax rate at 28% you still get 6.22m in FCF generated on a rolling basis, and that represents around 7.6% of the market cap.

CF has benefitted from WC improvements due to try to push to collect receivables quicker. I suspect there are some bad debts in there, but they will likely be small customers so hardly likely to be material IMHO. As the economy improves I'd expect sales leads to start to complete and generate revenues as co's become less cautious over purchasing decisions. Managed hosting should get better, although they are saying growth in domain names will slow due to non-repeatable one-off transactions helping put H1.

No matter, on balance, I think this is too cheap.

[shuisky] 20/1/2010 08:34

Someone has quietly picked up over 4% of the company...




...with very little market reaction.

[shuisky] 12/12/2009 08:49

This hasn't really participated in the rally of late, but i suspect that is about to change soon with the trading update likely soon. Last year it was on 18th Jan, so we can expect it soon. There is plenty of upside here

[dasv] 22/11/2009 21:39

serratia - thanks for your posts.

[serratia] 22/11/2009 20:26

Hyper Al,

I used to live near a stockbroker who some time back said it was his largest investment.This was based on his knowledge of Geoff Wickes the CEO who he rated very highly.I only invest in companies that I can analyse and understand and after a cursory glance I didn,t really have a clue about their market.In the end I spent some time getting to know more about them and started buying.Along the way I topped up at prices up to 200p,can't remember where I started but I missed the early rise.I haven't added for a while I know I should have backed my analysis during the low point earlier this year but it was hard to fight the doom and gloom.
I must run some new scenario's with the new suffix potential,maybe I'll top up again if they look good who knows.

[hyper al] 22/11/2009 20:01

I wish I had purchased a load of these back in 2002 at around 10p.

I went on about how good this company was then on ADVFN, I should have taken note of my own comments!

Always the same for me!

[serratia] 22/11/2009 19:54

I've been running some analysis following the last set of results.NBT shares have traded between 6 and 10 times the following years cash flow.This has held for the last 4 years.This gave a target price of 292p for the figures published October 30th 2009 ie Oct 08.Peak price for 2008 was 266p so pretty well up with events.
To get a figure for this years peak share price I have to estimate cash flow at the results to June 2010.My sales/EPS forward estimates luckily seem to be a mirror image of the broker estimates.Converting all this into share prices comes to 332p which is the present price.
On this basis the shares are now fully valued at 10* next years cash flow. Or is there more upside in next years cash generation?Possibly,next year domain names can end on any theme,brand or region eg .music .sport etc.Over the next 2 years there may be 20 to 30 new endings introduced.This would increase the number of domain names over the next 2 years from around 200m to around 300m.If as I expect NBT's customers will want to cover the new suffixes there's a 50% uplift in volume coming on stream.So NBT are either fully valued on an as is basis or there's more upside from 2010's suffix expansion.

[dasv] 18/11/2009 14:49

Blackrock now has over 14% of shares whilst director Robinson sold another 800k shares now having no position in the company...

[exotic] 26/10/2009 09:43

No worries.

[dasv] 21/10/2009 09:50

Sorry - I just thought you must be short judging by your focus on director sells?

I retract the comment - no offence intended.

[exotic] 21/10/2009 07:21

Who said I shorted these?

[dasv] 20/10/2009 16:47

how's your short going exotic?

[dasv] 15/10/2009 11:40

yet NBT share price keeps rising. He still has over £3m invested in this company.

[exotic] 14/10/2009 21:49

Date : 14/10/2009 @ 17:10

Director's Dealings

Group NBT was notified yesterday that Keith Young MBE, Non-executive Director
and Deputy Chairman, sold 100,000 ordinary shares in the Company on 13 October
2009 at a price of 300 pence per share.


Only approx 10% of his holding sold yesterday.