Group Nbt Share Discussion Threads

[carneddau] 24/8/2007 08:08

MM's widened the spread again to 272-280p swines!

[stegrego] 23/8/2007 20:51

Yep, looking to get in soon, but as of yet i dont have any spare cash now...

Thinking of selling the SLN that i bought last week for 65p that are now worth 112p - bit of a golden touch myself ;)

[carneddau] 23/8/2007 20:22

Stegrego - I've been waiting on the sidelines too but was probablly waiting to see movement in the opposite direction that you are looking for. The rise today on no volume and the tightening of the spread is what I wanted to see. I anticipate a climb back to the 300p level in the run up to results in mid-Sept. The two previous announcements March 8th '07 and 14th Sept '06 saw the share price surge. Last year there was a move from 150p to 190p levels, in march we saw a chart breakout from 250p to 340p levels. Taking everything into account I think this may have some catching up to do, I know these are different times but 300p is my target in the short term. I have been lucky to have a bit of a midas touch this week (banked profits of £2,700 on shares bought since monday - ROK, RR., NCC, HILS, HVN)so I am
probablly going to pick some up tomorrow.

[stegrego] 22/8/2007 19:17

Still looking for a better entry point here...

[carneddau] 22/8/2007 19:06

The share that time forgot.

[stegrego] 10/6/2007 13:24

NBT soars after Danish buyout

Last February, Midas tipped Group NBT as an interesting company to watch. The business registers, renews and manages website domain names for individuals and companies worldwide - joebloggs.co.uk, for example.

Large companies may have several thousand domain names worldwide and each one needs to be registered and managed. Companies have to protect their brands as well and there are certain domain names they need to do this. They also want to protect themselves against people who may try to cause them harm by registering malicious domain names that sound similar to their own.

When Midas recommended Group NBT, the shares were priced at 239p. They have risen sharply since then, however, and now trade at 310½p, a rise of almost 30%.

This robust performance follows strong interims in March and reflects City enthusiasm for an acquisition that NBT made at the start of the year. The company, run by chief executive Geoff Wicks, bought Denmark's Ascio, and the two firms fit together even better than analysts expected. The increased size of the business also gives NBT more clout.

• Midas verdict: Group NBT operates in a fascinating market and the company is likely to expand over the coming years. Before jitters hit the stock market last week, NBT had risen to 340p, a fantastic run in a short period of time. Patient investors should hold on to this stock, but those looking for quick results should sell half their holdings.

[serratia] 20/4/2007 17:04

More for discussion.

Looking back at NBT in 2003 they had a M.Cap/EBITDA of 13.3.In 2004 it was 11.5 and 2005 9.4.At present it is 13 * my year end forcast and 10.7* my 2008 forcast.IF growth continues as I estimate,at 13* EBITDA we would have a share price of 420p by mid 2008.I would be happy with a 25% increase in the coming year.
Just another way of estimating future prices.

[capricorn_1] 20/4/2007 14:18

12345th - The argument I made above has been relevant for the past two to three years (if you were able to scroll back in the BB to 2004/2005 you would find it there too). I accept your cautionary warning. My only point is that the potential for webhosting and internet services, such as those offered by NBT has still a great deal of upside going forward (because the market is far from mature for hosting services, IMO). One can argue about whether this isn´t already priced in, as you are, but I still believe that future results/outlooks will demonstrate that multiples can bear further price increases, fantastic as they might seem to someone who doesn´t understand the dynamics of this part of the economy....So it´s just a question of one´s own interpretation of how this market is developing....we´ll see.

[12345th] 20/4/2007 13:14

The question is when will the music stop? It has had a MASSIVE run up in the past year, heck even the past few months. That's all well and good but anyone who's been in this longterm, as i have, will recall how long it can plateau. So fund buying is what has pushed it up to these new giddy heights, but at some point the business will have to catch up with the share price ... and that is when the share price can become flatlined for a loooooong time, perhaps even go down a fair bit (a few big sells have as much impact negaitvely on the share price as a few big buys). I can't see the share price having much more of a run from here, not for at least a year. Am a longterm holder and very happy about recent action, but just warning newbies not to get carried away.

[capricorn_1] 20/4/2007 13:02

Diogenes/Serratia, This company is still very much in growth mode either organically or inorganically right now, so it is difficult to use multiples or PEs meaningfully. In a staeady state an established tech company like this should be expecting a PE of around 16x and EBITDA multiples of about 8x, IMO. I agreed with Serratia's forecast becuase, as the current PE ratio shows, one still has a number of funds and professional investors buying in at these prices (see last two RNS as an example), because I believe they are more focused on the coming two year's budgetted numbers with the knowledge that the forward multiples look a lot more sensible. Since such investors do have access to broker reports, as long as they keep investing, I wouldn't worry too much about the price moving further North.

[serratia] 19/4/2007 23:04

Hi Diogenes,

I think the sales target is a reasonable attempt following their disclosure of the figures of the companies they bought.Fixed costs are less easy to determine as I have no information on aquisition costs so they may be higher than my guess.I do think they have the ability to extract synergies but the time frame is unknown.This year or next I can't say. Now what multiple to put on a growth company?I'm never sure I usually underestimate the premium people will pay for growth so I floated 25 * EPS.If someone can comment on valuing a growth company in terms of multiples of earnings 1 2 3 years into the future I'm all ears.

[diogenesj] 19/4/2007 21:21

Looks pretty optimistic to me, serratia, but wdik? Anyone seen a recent forecast from Bell Lawrie?

[serratia] 19/4/2007 17:11

Thanks Cap,

As nobody corrected me I'll sit it out waiting for either 450p or news which will change my projections.

[capricorn_1] 19/4/2007 17:00

Having made good profits from these in the past two years, I've decided that today's breather is a perfect opportunity to get back in to these again. I've missed out on the main ride over the past 18months, but I totally agree with serratia's forecast, and believe that successful webhosting platforms like NBTs are proving to have huge growth potential going forward : This is a great long term investment, IMO.

[chester] 30/3/2007 13:18

New Highs very soon me thinks...

[serratia] 22/3/2007 21:32

For those interested I have run my forward forcast for NBT.Constructive criticism welcome. I hold these shares.

Full year 2007 - Sales £26.6m giving a PBT OF £5.44M,tax at 28% giving a diluted EPS of 13.8p and a P/E on 320p of 23.1.
Running forward to 2008 I get sales of £32.5m,a PBT of £6.66m an EPS of 18p giving a P/E of 17.8.If we give a growth company a P/E of 25 this would give a June 2008 price of 450p.
I have not seen any broker forcasts for comparison.Also I have no figures for aquisition 'costs' other than the price and shares/options issued.Companies often take a provision for 'restructuring' so the short term PBT may be lower than my figures.
Any views ?

[hyper al] 22/3/2007 15:16

Any chance NBT could buy Iomart for a few NBT shares.

I would love to see someone who knows what they are doing manage Iomart.

[hyper al] 22/3/2007 15:14

Well done holders and all at NBT

[12345th] 22/3/2007 14:35

oxman - as I've said before, the way to get perspective on NBT's rise is to look at its debut during the dotcom boom. The share price went to the sky, and while conditions are different today, it does show just how limited supply of shares is! Even with directors recenctly selling to meet institutional demand, the share price is relentlessly up. That very long term chart tells me we should not be surprised to see £4 breached pretty soon!

[its the oxman] 22/3/2007 14:25

just shows the power of equity

[its the oxman] 22/3/2007 14:24

long since 29p - very happy boy today

[12345th] 22/3/2007 12:46

hey it's cadwell, my old friend who was predicting doom and gloom for NBT when the shares were at £1.50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How's your short doing cadders??????!!!!!!!!!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cadwell] 22/3/2007 12:34

not you again

[12345th] 22/3/2007 11:02

Are there rumours of a bid doing the rounds ... or what?!!! (Not that I'm complaining!)

[its the oxman] 21/3/2007 16:20

310p offered !