Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rose_by_another_name] 05/7/2018 08:35

In the past, Griffin have authorized their
broker to buy back shares independently of
the board, insulating them from closed period
issues.

[mad foetus] 05/7/2018 08:13

Well, one thing for sure. These are an incredible bargain at this price. I went to a talk recently at PWC on China's belt and roads initiative, and the demand for raw materials is going to be significant. If there are trade wars and tariffs, GFM is in a prime position as it is producing where the demand is. Having said that, the share price has declined 20% as a result of the lack of communication from the board. They should either buy back stacks of shares at this price or do something to get the share price up to more reasonable levels. And also, out of politeness, do a meeting in London for shareholders: not all of us can get to Bermuda.

[neville1940] 04/7/2018 23:57

Hi Sageman,
Great to see you are on this board great post as ever Imhave been unable to get into the new IiBoard have you been able to continue posting ? If so can you give my best regards to everyone I really miss this site so much
CD

[sageman] 04/7/2018 22:32

Mad I know what you are saying but that approach would be an indiscriminate scatter gun method. Thus you would be buying on days of high volume and when the share price was already elevated. The BOD of GFM are sophisticated. They placed shares to fund "the 2012 deal" when the share price was over £1 and bought back those shares at a considerably lower price. They act a little like seasoned traders buying on dips and selling on spikes. They would therefore look to time the buy backs when they can purchase cheaply and support the share price (albeit within regulatory constraints). The methodology you describe is being deployed by Lloyds... hence previous comment that share buybacks are
a matter of controversy regarding shareholder value for large liquid companies.

[sageman] 04/7/2018 22:17

I think that you will find that GFM have some very specific objectives in mind but in terms of keeping the cash remember that they were in overdraft until the December RNS! If I was running the company I would want to build a cash buffer and secure the license. Then I would want to pay an ongoing dividend, develop the newly licensed area, expand production and look at other local projects. When I have run this strategy past Roger he said he couldn't comment directly but by the same token he did not disagree. I sometimes think of the Brexit negotiations when I think of GFM. People want to know exactly what the government want to achieve ( stupidly ignoring the fact that thereafter their negotiating hand is weakened) . Pi's want to know exactly what the BOD of GFM want to do and when... The BOD prefer to keep their cards close to their chest!!! IMHO with GFM you just have to decide whether you trust our BOD or not. If you do then invest and enjoy (or not) the ride if you don't then invest elsewhere. It took me circa 6 years to reach this conclusion and I have been here for 11. I confirm that I am the same Sageman from III.

[mad foetus] 04/7/2018 21:45

Ordinarily with buybacks you give a standing mandate to the company's broker. Then there is no issue with inside info, closed periods etc. I am happy to have zone 2 funded, buybacks or divis, but would just like some info as I don't want them to keep the cash just in case something turns up

[alangrifbang] 04/7/2018 21:31

Roger goodwin did say any monies would be ploughed back into the company,over many years I have had good conversations with Roger I now find it difficult to get any information at all,keep posting,

[sageman] 04/7/2018 21:01

In terms of buy backs this is an area of controversy for most investors. My view is that for large highly liquid companies buy backs typically offer very little value. However, for smaller companies where there are low volumes of shares traded with the bulk held by LTH type investors, buy backs can be effective.It takes stock off the MM's and makes it harder for them to manipulate the share price. However, companies can't do buy backs when they are in possession of market sensitive facts not known to the markets. My guess is that with the half year figures now in but awaiting publication in August the company would be unlikely to be able to do any buy backs. Also buy backs may limit the scope for dividends.

[alangrifbang] 04/7/2018 19:22

Thank you for a first class post,I spoke to Roger and got mostly the same answer,un fortunately phillis posted that I was a liar ,we have a very nasty man called chimers on the BANGO site and I'm sure phillis must be his wife!! I will continue to read your posts with great interest,

[sageman] 04/7/2018 17:49

I saw some comments here and thought that it may help to comment. The share price has dropped because of the fall in Zinc. I asked Roger if he knew of any other reason and he said no (albeit he would not be able to comment on market sensitive news other then via an RNS). He went on to say that he felt that the fall in Zinc prices was over done and due to Trump and expects a rebound. I have spoken to Roger over the years and whilst he did not give me any "news" - he never does! I detected a good deal of optimism in his overall manner.I have learned over the years that GFM do not issue "news" unless there is any. They concentrate on running the mine. The management hold more shares than probably any poster here (Roger has just under 1m) and their sole aim is long term shareholder value. The o/s license is over a different zone so they couldn't have got it as part of the 2012 deal.If GFM decide to invest elsewhere I would expect that they would only do so in China in a venture where they have a high probability of success due to business synergies. In the meantime I have topped up another 45,000 shares (all shown as sells!) and look forward to the license and the results. GFM are debt free and well managed. The BOD are not daft and would not act to destroy shareholder value because of their skin in the game.

[up just a little bit] 03/7/2018 12:54

Yes indeed the buy backs have been small in scale

[buster18] 03/7/2018 12:46

Probably the chairman!

[up just a little bit] 03/7/2018 12:39

Who just bought 2 shares at 1.28

[phillis] 02/7/2018 21:34

Ring any bells?
Who is this nutter.

"This is my first post, have held BANGO for many years and am well ahead,ingest mistake I made was to get caught up with Simon at the investors chronicle.i bought another 40000 at £2 56.from that moment on it fell and fell.verybody is still positive but I'm not to sure! Also own lots of griffin mining nd am faced with the same situation,kept posts coming,alangriffbang

[alangrifbang] 02/7/2018 16:39

It should finish if it DOSENT suit you,

[alangrifbang] 02/7/2018 13:45

I don't pull anybody's legs what I have said is the truth if you don't believe it that's up to you,the news is what it is ,I'm sorry if it suit you,

[phillis] 02/7/2018 11:19

they dont like Malcolm Turnbull in China

[rose_by_another_name] 02/7/2018 10:57

When they bought out the junior partner,
they spent all they had and took on debt.
Part of that deal was the promise of the
zone 2 licence, so I don't see that having
a pool of cash would be a condition of the
licence. It ought to have been granted
already.

[hvs] 02/7/2018 10:18

To me, GFM is a hugely profitable project: I am not sure I want it turned into a large miner.

Best you sell out then. Aint it ?

[phillis] 02/7/2018 10:00

as I have posted before, Chinese companies are being frustrated in Australia by new laws/government actions so dont be surprised if reciprocal action takes place in China

[cflather2000] 02/7/2018 09:45

I'm choosing to trust the board. Maybe they feel they can obtain the license. Maybe they have another plan. One thing I know is that they know more than me!

[phillis] 02/7/2018 08:56

well they would be pretty stupid if they got the licence but had no money to develop immediately

[mad foetus] 02/7/2018 08:45

I have previously speculated that they may need to keep back cash as proof of funds for zone 2. I have no problem with that, but if that is the case I see no reason why they won't tell us. What I don't want is them making an acquisition a long way away from the current mine. To me, GFM is a hugely profitable project: I am not sure I want it turned into a large miner.

[galoot] 02/7/2018 08:42

They probably mean that they have the licence in the bag and they are going to spend the money on mine development..................................Any more speculations