Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 14:55

High street is a bit of an outdated phrase wouldn't you say?

[philanderer] 29/9/2020 14:50

Looks as though I'm the only one buying a few.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 14:25

But you people won't order a pastie via just eat to the door, besides the fact Greggs would then have to facilitate the delivery they also have to pay justeats exorbitant % fee.

[philanderer] 29/9/2020 14:01

So this fella at The Telegraph called it wrong in march. Who's to say he's not calling it wrong again today ? ....

[mayar] 29/9/2020 13:31

courtesy of Daily Telegraph , City Intelligence by Ben Marlow

Pandemic brings baker's extraordinary roll to an abrupt end.

Not even a biblical plague or extratropical cyclone could knock Greggs off course. That was my bold prediction back in March after a rare warning from the baker about the effects of storms Ciara and Dennis, and coronavirus on its piping-hot performance.

My thesis was simple: Greggs is a national phenomenon. It has been on a mesmerising run, going from strength to strength over the last decade. Therefore it must surely be immune to even the most extreme events. Indeed, the retailer had just handed every employee a £300 one-off bonus after a “phenomenal year” so surely this would prove to be just a minor blip?

What a dreadful call. It turns out the chain is fallible after all. Like all high street businesses, lockdown battered trading but much like our own fragile economy, the shape of the recovery is far more worrying.

Three months after reopening all its stores on July 2, sales at Greggs remain a quarter below last year’s levels, prompting what feels like an inevitable threat to hundreds, possibly even thousands, of jobs.

The so-called “food-to-go221; market hasn’t quite gone altogether but it’s been battered by the pandemic. If city centres are ghost towns, then airports and train stations are like morgues.

Anyone selling take-away food, as it used to be known, to commuters and travellers, has watched helplessly as business has evaporated. Worse, there seems little, if any, prospect of trade bouncing back as long as lockdown 2.0 remains in place.

A warning from Greggs that business will remain "below normal for the foreseeable future” will send shockwaves through the rest of retail-land. It was enough to knock 6pc off its shares, leaving them at a two-year low of 1145p.

Another way of looking at it is that trading may have found a floor, one that Greggs cannot afford to live with for long, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.

The broker says that the company needs to operate at 80pc of 2019 levels just to break even. Yet, after a “challenging” August, sales over the last four weeks are only 76pc of last year’s levels.

Cuts to employee hours will help "minimise the risk of job losses”, Greggs said, which is meant to sound reassuring when really it’s just another way of saying: “People will lose their jobs, but we’re not prepared to put a number on it yet."

So in the spirit of management’s ambiguity, here’s a crude calculation: if Greggs employs 25,000 people and 800 out of 2,000 shops are affected, that’s 10,000 jobs up in the air.

Of course, many employees will simply accept fewer hours, but there will be lots who cannot withstand the financial hit and are forced to seek full employment elsewhere, in the worst jobs market for years and with Christmas approaching too.

There’s the odd glimmer of hope: customer seating in larger shops is being reopened; click and collect is now available nationwide; and a delivery tie-up with Just Eat is "progressing at speed”.

But as analysts at Shore Capital said: "Greggs, through no fault of its own, has had its world turned upside down."

And if Greggs is struggling, we should all be afraid.

[geraldus] 29/9/2020 13:15

Pile it high sell it cheap wont work now.Changes need to made faster.

[indigocarmine] 29/9/2020 13:09

Dunno, judging from the activity in the shops near me, I find the trading statement somewhat hard to believe, but others have said stores in their areas have been busy. Personally I'm quite worried for the future of Greggs, but then I'd say the same of most high street retail at the moment. If you think business is picking up for them, then the current price is a bargain. Personally, I think I'll hold off. It's a business that needs high throughput, and as long as these ridiculous restrictions are in place, you're never going to get high throughput. Maybe the Just Eat hook-up will be the saviour, but then how much will the cost of delivery eat into the margins, or will increased prices due to delivery put people off buying.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 12:53

You think that people will drive for a Greggs "drive thru"? 24hrs maybe?If it was a viable model they would have implemented it years ago.Instead they sell frozen to Iceland.

[albanyvillas] 29/9/2020 12:52

yes a lot of smelly pies

can i have some pigs pus on my greggs sausage roll please

12% meat in a sausage roll, 88% other crud, complete filth

[bouleversee] 29/9/2020 12:38

Doesn't sound as though you know much about what Greggs offers or does so probably just a shorter/deramper.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 12:14

Click and collect GREGGS? Are people really that desperate for a sausage roll?

[bouleversee] 29/9/2020 11:05

I read in the last few days that they are opening centres which people can drive to from their homes and they do click and collect as well as deliveries. I think you will find that one way or another they will serve people working from home who won't have time or desire to cook their meals. They have also closed a number of the shops which are likely to be less profitable in future. I feel sure they will survive and return to profitability before too long.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 10:57

It's not deramping nonsense though when the business model is based on a mobile society, when there's the real risk of rolling lockdowns preventing any return to normality for some time. How many Greggs serve the office workers, the high street shoppers? Most of which are sat at home not buying pasties.Crunch time coming and a return to 2014 levels certainly isn't being something to rule out.

[essentialinvestor] 29/9/2020 10:16

mayer, that may be a valid observation on the lack of profitability mention,
had not considered that angle.

[henryatkin] 29/9/2020 10:14

Greggs need people travelling through airports, train stations and going back from homeworking to office working in the cities. That will take a long time yet but Greggs have exceptional management & things like expanding Deliveroo will help speed the recovery. Picking the bottom will be difficult in my opinion but I fancy around £8.

[mayar] 29/9/2020 10:11

I would imagine results don't mention profit levels because the company is in discussion with unions re reduced staff hours and possible redundancies.

I agree with tomc85 that the chart shows grg in a falling wedge pattern that must come to an end before £10. Positive divergence between the share price and rsi, over the March, Aug and Sept lows, suggests to me that breakout north is more likely. Mention of £5, £6 ,last seen in 2014 sounds like de-ramping nonsense.

Short positions have declined to zero.
I made money trading the last bounce up and continue to hold a few from £14.40 ish.

[philanderer] 29/9/2020 10:10

Where is there value ?

[barius] 29/9/2020 10:05

Back to sub-£5 over the next month or so. No value here.

[philanderer] 29/9/2020 09:47

I reckon it's the virus that's the problem. There's no law preventing you going to Greggs.

[essentialinvestor] 29/9/2020 09:46

On GRG you need to look at the 5 year chart fwiw.

People are mislead by the parabolic move in 2019.


If trading was about to revert back to 2019 levels that would be different,

unfortunately those levels of profitability may not been seen for a while.

[elcapitalthegreat] 29/9/2020 09:45

hate to do this, i love the company, but bozo is killing the high street....as well as the care home dwellers

im going short

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 29/9/2020 09:27

Under 10? And the rest.

[phar lap] 29/9/2020 09:26

Greggs are still being rated as a growth share.
A double whammy of falling profits and a de-rating to a sector average pe (15-17)could see the share price under £10.