Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[racg] 10/2/2017 14:27

Wonder where the bottom is here. Tiny inconsequential position but would like to add, if only I had a clue. Hehe.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 13:40

Plenty agree EI and lots being dumped .. 1.3 million traded so far

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2017 12:21

Spot on about the lack of margin mention phil, I don't go short individual
stocks so just giving my take- it did not read well to me.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 12:04

10th feb Panmure buy tp 850p cut from 1050p

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 10:53

"Greene King's shares fall as Canaccord cuts target price, lowers guidance"

(ShareCast News) - Greene King's shares fell on Friday as Canaccord Genuity reiterated a 'buy' rating but cut the target price to 850p from 900p and lowered its earnings guidance.

"It's disruptive and hard work to stitch two big companies together but investors should not lose sight of the goal that Greene King is after," Canaccord said.

"Greene King and Spirit together is a much better investment proposition with higher quality earnings, stronger FCF and better growth prospects than before."

Canaccord said it remains positive on the Spirit integration where synergies continue to come through. The broker expects synergies of £30m this year, which puts the company on track to achieve the original three-year target in two years.

Canaccord downgraded its estimates for earnings per share in fiscal year 2017 by 1.8% to 70.4p. It also reduced its forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by 3.7% and 4.2% respectively.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 10:28

Fair summary ....


Mark Brumby at booze and food-focused Langton Capital, noted there was no mention of margins in this morning's trading statement, and that current trading suggests Greene King is facing further head-winds.

“Across the group’s three divisions, trading has slipped between weeks 24 and 40,” Brumby said.

Whipping out a pencil and using the back of an envelope, Brumby said a rough estimate would suggest that managed LFLs over the last 16 weeks are around 0.8%, which is “still positive but slowing”, while in the Pub Partners division LFL sales appear to have grown 2.5% year-on-year.

“Brewing must have seen volumes down c4.8% over the last 16 weeks in order to make the numbers add up,” Brumby said.

“Considering that the 3wks of Xmas were +4.5% (managed) and ‘sales were driven by particularly strong growth in London’, we believe that non-London, non-Xmas sales were weak,” Brumby said.

“GNK is one of the UK’s better-positioned pub companies and, with its shares now trading at a single-digit multiple, it is not expensive; however, with a big acquisition under its belt, the group has to execute on its strategy and cautionary comments may put off would-be buyers in the short term,” Brumby suggested.


proactiveinvestors.co.uk

[eddyeagle1979] 10/2/2017 10:21

Looks good from a dividend perspective at current levels...

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2017 10:15

24 weeks to 16 October - Pub Company L4L sales growth + 1.3%, Pub Partners + 4.2%.

Now todays update, 40 weeks to 5 Feb - Pub Company L4L sales growth + 1.1%,
Pub Partners + 3.5%.

Since the 40 week figures include Christmas trading, this does not look
great to me.

Any other thoughts?.

[philanderer] 10/2/2017 10:13

It`s tough out there and competition's fierce.

Happy to hold :-)

edit:

Shore Capital reiterating 'buy'

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2017 09:05

Is it a decent update?.

The Christmas Trading was in black capital highlights as that looked
the better performance imv.

Look at the YTD L4L, uninspiring, and that is before you factor in margin headwinds.

[timbo003] 10/2/2017 08:31

It seemed like a decent update to me so the markdown seems somewhat unwarranted, but was there any need to use upper case in the header for this morning's RNS announcement?

"STRONG CHRISTMAS TRADING"

[spoole5] 10/2/2017 08:15

A decent update followed by the usual markdown!!

[philanderer] 07/2/2017 12:05

7th feb Investec buy tp 870p

reiterates

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2017 19:36

Net debt will be interesting on this update.
The were planning to step up the number of pub disposals, from memory.

[philanderer] 02/2/2017 09:15

2nd feb Barclays overweight tp 770p cut from 910p

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2017 13:32

Decided to wait for the update before buying back in or not,
may be the wrong decision as GNK are overdue a favourable reaction to news.
Expectations a lot lower than 12 months ago.

[philanderer] 01/2/2017 13:09

Belhaven Pub Partners has outlined its commitment to its tenanted pubs estate by completing the latest set in a series of major investments north of the border.

Among the pubs who have undergone substantial refurbishments are the Glen Lusset in Old Kilpatrick, the Crown Inn in Biggar and the Strathaven named after the South Lanarkshire town where it is situated.

These pubs, owned by Greene King, are already feeling the positive impact of the changes with the Glen Lusset reporting that trade has more than doubled since its relaunch just before Christmas under new tenant Graeme Adam.

[essentialinvestor] 27/1/2017 12:39

How low can it go?, we much be somewhere nearing value territory.

It has sold off hard on the last few updates.

[philanderer] 26/1/2017 12:45

WTB

.....Like-for-like (LFL) sales in the 13 weeks to 1 December in the restaurants arm, which includes brands such as Beefeater and Brewer’s Fayre, fell 1.5% from a year earlier.

[jotoha2] 26/1/2017 11:40

Falling nicely , £3.00 within 12 months.

[essentialinvestor] 26/1/2017 11:36

This update is going to be interesting.

[philanderer] 24/1/2017 10:28

Read across from MARS , which looks ok to me.

[philanderer] 23/1/2017 23:28

Brewer becomes first to seek to supply its own water retail services