Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[stewart64] 01/2/2019 09:28

New share issuance at 127p, they finally couldn't resist...stake in SSE turbines.

Last time they did this in October 2017 the Institutional offer price of 117p became the share price for a short while. However, that was a huge share issuance of about £500m, this is a quarter of that. Doubt it will fall much lower.

This is usually the time to buy Greencoat on the issuance dip.

[a0002577] 18/1/2019 10:34

Why the big move up today?

see

It has also had a knock-on effect on other green infrastructure funds

[whilstev] 18/1/2019 09:37

Rise in NAV due to an increase in assets lifetime estimate rising from 25 years to 30 years.

[bothdavis] 18/1/2019 09:31

News: results in line, increase as in RPI for dividend.

[stewart64] 18/1/2019 09:13

Why the big move up today?

[stewart64] 30/11/2018 10:46

Still waiting for Hargreaves, in any case they pend the dividend reinvestment until around the 12th of each month.

[bothdavis] 30/11/2018 09:55

Dividends received today....reinvested as ever.... good luck to all in the turmoil ahead!

[bothdavis] 13/10/2018 15:11

May I suggest prunes or a good curry!!

[stewart64] 13/10/2018 14:56

Indeed I said H1 was not the most helpful conditions. But as the linky and post have clearly upset you I have removed. I agree long term forecasting isn't exactly a science.

Btw as per Greencoat's half year statement, the wind does matter you know.

[tradermel] 13/10/2018 10:10

Its been one of the less windy summers and early Autumn, so how you think a forecast published in the sun is going to lead to something special in the annuals is beyond me!

[stewart64] 10/9/2018 18:06

Bit puzzled by Greencoat's stellar summer tbh, putting on 8% since May as the 350 has corrected 7% in the opposite direction. Trig's done ok but not to the same extent.

[stewart64] 06/8/2018 15:04

Would be an even better stock if the Management relied on organic growth rather than new share issuance. They've achieved scale and all that new share issuance does is increase the size not quality of the company. Everytime things are looking up (like now) we get punished by the management with new share issuance and a 5 to 10% share crash.

[ygor705] 27/7/2018 12:45

In my view this stock is totally underrated by the Market. Eps up 33% at half year. Dividend of 5.4% and well covered. Modest PE. Most FTSE 100 Directors would die to publish those kind of numbers. Just topped up.

[topvest] 29/6/2018 17:43

This has been the best performing renewable energy trust to date I believe. My favourite two are this and TRIG, which I think are the pick of the bunch!

[stewart64] 29/6/2018 12:53

Starting to get a bit worried again, as per my previous comment. Any excuse for a bit of Empire building and adding a few more wind farms.

[stewart64] 03/5/2018 09:02

Greencoat might want to pull the trigger on another IPO if the price firms much more. But the time to worry is probably north of 126. They certainly intended September 17's announcement to be tranche one of two.

125.6 was the trigger last time and sent the price to around 116. That in itself should be enough to put them off. Also doesn't look great if they try and pull another if the share price is below their last effort.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 14:28

A000587..I'm looking at the cash drag from a purely statistical point of view on website stats as opposed to having any real impact on the business. Whether or not Greencoat had raised 350 million at the end of the year made little difference to the bottom line profit for 2017 but instead of basing profit on a Market cap of 900 million it now has to stand the unflattering comparison of a market cap of 1250 million that it did not have access to. Ok I am no expert on whether such issuance is adjusted for or not in p/e ratios...maybe I am under a misapprehension here? Because investors look at stats.

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:28

Hi Spin Doctor, I agree with you - to a certain extent.

What I am trying to bottom is the way they all use different discount rates and/or WACC - which have a very telling affect on the NAV. Afraid it needs a better brain than mine to work it out.

My preferred green infrastructure fund is actually FSFL and there is a very interesting explanation of what their manager is doing to improve the income from the assets in their latest report and also what effect a change in the discount rate has on the NAV - worth a read

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:17

It would seem that they only have one loan as follows

"In September 2016 the Company secured an 18 year, fully amortising finance facility of £187m (at a fixed rate of 2.875% on £121.5m and 0.7% over RPI on £65.5m) from Aviva Investors."

"During the period principal repayments of £6.9m, combined with indexation increases of £2.8m, resulted in a total outstanding balance to Aviva Investors as at 31 December 2017 of £180.2m (Fixed £115.3m, Index linked, £64.9m)."

If they do not buy more assets with any money they raise from here on - they will have cash drag though.

[spin doctor] 27/2/2018 11:21

Looks to me that the greater IRR of UKW justifies the premium. Very low and falling charges. Commitment to dividend growth in.line with inflation, which the competitors with lower dividend cover and higher charges cannot match.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 09:52

Thanks for that A000257. Would still be an income drag on the price to earnings off the final market cap when they have raised the cash towards the end of their financial year if nothing other than saving on debt interest next year.

Does highlight the fact that Greencoat still have 200 million shares to raise, can see them making a move as soon as the shares (or if) they go north of 125-127. A bit of a nuisance.

[a0002577] 26/2/2018 17:00

Hi Stewart64

This is from their report - showing no cash drag

"In order to finance our continuing growth through pursuing further attractive investment opportunities, in September we announced a Share Issuance Programme to issue up to 500 million new shares over a 12 month period. Under this programme, in October we issued 290.6 million new shares at an issue price of 117 pence per share, raising gross issue proceeds of £340 million in an oversubscribed fund raising. Net issue proceeds of £335 million were applied to repay short term borrowings. The issue was NAV accretive (after issue costs) by 1.7 pence per share."