Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[tradermel] 13/10/2018 11:10

Its been one of the less windy summers and early Autumn, so how you think a forecast published in the sun is going to lead to something special in the annuals is beyond me!

[stewart64] 10/9/2018 19:06

Bit puzzled by Greencoat's stellar summer tbh, putting on 8% since May as the 350 has corrected 7% in the opposite direction. Trig's done ok but not to the same extent.

[stewart64] 06/8/2018 16:04

Would be an even better stock if the Management relied on organic growth rather than new share issuance. They've achieved scale and all that new share issuance does is increase the size not quality of the company. Everytime things are looking up (like now) we get punished by the management with new share issuance and a 5 to 10% share crash.

[ygor705] 27/7/2018 13:45

In my view this stock is totally underrated by the Market. Eps up 33% at half year. Dividend of 5.4% and well covered. Modest PE. Most FTSE 100 Directors would die to publish those kind of numbers. Just topped up.

[topvest] 29/6/2018 18:43

This has been the best performing renewable energy trust to date I believe. My favourite two are this and TRIG, which I think are the pick of the bunch!

[stewart64] 29/6/2018 13:53

Starting to get a bit worried again, as per my previous comment. Any excuse for a bit of Empire building and adding a few more wind farms.

[stewart64] 03/5/2018 10:02

Greencoat might want to pull the trigger on another IPO if the price firms much more. But the time to worry is probably north of 126. They certainly intended September 17's announcement to be tranche one of two.

125.6 was the trigger last time and sent the price to around 116. That in itself should be enough to put them off. Also doesn't look great if they try and pull another if the share price is below their last effort.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 14:28

A000587..I'm looking at the cash drag from a purely statistical point of view on website stats as opposed to having any real impact on the business. Whether or not Greencoat had raised 350 million at the end of the year made little difference to the bottom line profit for 2017 but instead of basing profit on a Market cap of 900 million it now has to stand the unflattering comparison of a market cap of 1250 million that it did not have access to. Ok I am no expert on whether such issuance is adjusted for or not in p/e ratios...maybe I am under a misapprehension here? Because investors look at stats.

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:28

Hi Spin Doctor, I agree with you - to a certain extent.

What I am trying to bottom is the way they all use different discount rates and/or WACC - which have a very telling affect on the NAV. Afraid it needs a better brain than mine to work it out.

My preferred green infrastructure fund is actually FSFL and there is a very interesting explanation of what their manager is doing to improve the income from the assets in their latest report and also what effect a change in the discount rate has on the NAV - worth a read

[a0002577] 27/2/2018 12:17

It would seem that they only have one loan as follows

"In September 2016 the Company secured an 18 year, fully amortising finance facility of £187m (at a fixed rate of 2.875% on £121.5m and 0.7% over RPI on £65.5m) from Aviva Investors."

"During the period principal repayments of £6.9m, combined with indexation increases of £2.8m, resulted in a total outstanding balance to Aviva Investors as at 31 December 2017 of £180.2m (Fixed £115.3m, Index linked, £64.9m)."

If they do not buy more assets with any money they raise from here on - they will have cash drag though.

[spin doctor] 27/2/2018 11:21

Looks to me that the greater IRR of UKW justifies the premium. Very low and falling charges. Commitment to dividend growth in.line with inflation, which the competitors with lower dividend cover and higher charges cannot match.

[stewart64] 27/2/2018 09:52

Thanks for that A000257. Would still be an income drag on the price to earnings off the final market cap when they have raised the cash towards the end of their financial year if nothing other than saving on debt interest next year.

Does highlight the fact that Greencoat still have 200 million shares to raise, can see them making a move as soon as the shares (or if) they go north of 125-127. A bit of a nuisance.

[a0002577] 26/2/2018 17:00

Hi Stewart64

This is from their report - showing no cash drag

"In order to finance our continuing growth through pursuing further attractive investment opportunities, in September we announced a Share Issuance Programme to issue up to 500 million new shares over a 12 month period. Under this programme, in October we issued 290.6 million new shares at an issue price of 117 pence per share, raising gross issue proceeds of £340 million in an oversubscribed fund raising. Net issue proceeds of £335 million were applied to repay short term borrowings. The issue was NAV accretive (after issue costs) by 1.7 pence per share."

[a0002577] 26/2/2018 11:32

Results published today.

Highlights:

~ Market capitalisation : £1,263.0 million
~ Share price : 122.8 pence
~ Dividends with respect to the year : £57.3 million
~ Dividends with respect to the year per share 6.49 pence
~ GAV £1,409.0 million
~ NAV : £1,144.0 million
~ NAV per share : 111.2 pence
~ NAV growth per share (adjusting for dividends) : 2.6 pence
~ Total return (NAV) : 8.5 per cent.
~ TSR : 8.4 per cent.

Forward Dividend : 6.76 pence : Forward Yield therefore 5.60% : Forward TER also reducing.

The increase in NAV seams to be down to the change in the discount rate used. There is a good table setting out how changes in NAV are affected by various factors (including the discount rate)

but it seems solid with a commitment to RPI dividend increases. However, I cannot see the attraction over TRIG and FSFL or even JLEN. All of which have higher yields and smaller premiums to NAV. There are also some 'infrastructure' VCTs which yield more - tax free to boot.

What am I missing?

[stewart64] 26/1/2018 05:59

Energy security in the news today regarding Russia's potential to disrupt Continental supplies. We could easily be self sufficient on renewables but at the moment you wouldn't have a cat in hell's chance of raising the IPO capital needed with Comrade Corbyn and McDonnel in the background. Infrastructure shares on a downer currently.

[stewart64] 03/1/2018 13:12

Hargreaves was not executing any buys until the last hour or so this week for Greencoat because of an oversight on documentation. The price headed north anyway.

[morgoth1] 02/11/2017 09:29

I got all i applied for im with Hargreaves Lansdown.

[pj fozzie] 31/10/2017 10:11

Who has received notification of their allocation? Anyone scaled back or did you get the full number you applied for? Which broker are you with? I'm with Interactive Investor and have heard nothing so far.

Cheers,
PJ

[morgoth1] 27/10/2017 09:31

Looks like i got all the shares i applied for at £1.17.
IMHO they will scale back the institutions.

[stewart64] 27/10/2017 09:24

Share issuance of 290 million with receipts of 340 million. A success and oversubscribed according to their website of 25th October 2017.

[stewart64] 25/10/2017 11:06

Shares falling quite sharply today. Any idea when the share allocation and details of the capital raise is known? Wondered if the fall might have had something to do with the new share issuance today, but probably more to do with the good GDP data. I thought the November rate rise was a banker anyway.

Meanwhile, the good GDP data must be a major blow for the Remain ultras who were hoping for a bit of gloom mongering today, led by Philip Hammond naturally.

[stewart64] 13/10/2017 12:40

Ah right the shares get credited on 27 Oct so will attach the next dividend. Thanks...never read my HL emails.