Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 04/4/2013 08:39

Useful, thanks. Confirms my own feelings on UKW.

[jonwig] 03/4/2013 14:30

I suspect it was a link to a competitor and automatically deleted.

Stake by Investec yesterday was another encouragement: high institutional stakes in this sort of thing will deter governments from tinkering (raiding?) with subsidies, hence more stability.

All three political parties are committed to the Green Agenda. Yes, I know it's all very artificial and manipulated, but it's important enough for the government not to renege, or they'll lose the private sector involvement they need so badly.

[jonwig] 02/4/2013 18:55

What happened to post #23? There was a link I wanted to visit.

[jonwig] 30/3/2013 16:55

Yes, Honiton I remember, R Ball not - but isn't 'Honiton' still around?

Large caps yes - and Unilever has been a useful holding for the past year and more. Persimmon, too in housebuilding.

I'm not sure about 20% capital return unless you take big risk. I'm in the school which says something will go "pop" or even "POP" - though not yet.

[r ball] 30/3/2013 16:44

ps I reckon you can easily best index by dumping the obvious duffers. expect 20% capital return this year. large caps offer good value.

[r ball] 30/3/2013 16:44

ps I reckon you can easily best index by dumping the obvious duffers. expect 20% capital return this year. large caps offer good value.

[r ball] 30/3/2013 16:37

jonwig

greetings. my user name was HOniton then. I think we followed each other across to chesnara. a well run company but I could never quite figure out the business model: actuarial figures being a bit beyond me.

note comment re: hmgov.

[jonwig] 30/3/2013 14:46

R Ball - hello to you, too.

Yes, looking back I sold INP sometime in Nov 07 (my records are somewhere). That was a decent investment ... and trading around it was fun! I think I stopped looking at shares from a "trader" viewpoint around then.

Nowadays I've no aspirations to beat any index, except cash in the bank and to preserve capital in real terms.

As for UKW, I just hope they can give me 6% plus ?PI and by implication the real value of my stake.

Worth remembering that HMGov and SSE hold a big chunk of these, and would likely block acquisition from outside.

[r ball] 30/3/2013 07:50

Hello jonwig

Thought I would catch up - remember Inspicio. Oh happy days before the banking crash.

This one looks interesting, and a reasonable asset play. The regulatory environment is benign and yield may become quite hefty.

What do you reckon to a take-out in 3 years time but a, say, nuclear power generator.

[jonwig] 28/3/2013 10:37

I succumbed: 101.99p.

[jonwig] 28/3/2013 10:17

FT, largely positive on stable cashflows:



Telegraph, maybe the strongest argument for investing is as a hedge against your rising fuel bills:

This prospectus explains the massive rush of wind applications, as developers know they will get rich whilst pushing thousands of energy consumers into fuel poverty.



And:

[ygor706] 28/3/2013 08:22

I'm quite surprised at the lack of background comment on this issue.........all very subdued. I'm wondering if the Government are fearful of a backlash over the amount of subsidy that they are providing for the sector. My subscription application was scaled back so I was expecting more of a premium. Only have a modest position but I'll be sitting with it to see how things develop from here.

[daveofdevon] 28/3/2013 08:11

The success of the float suggests that the market is not too worried about turbine life and neither am I. Hope you are not being a bit naughty Jonwig and trying to put a lid on the price till Apr 6th.... Te He !

[topvest] 28/3/2013 07:39

I bought a few of these as looks a good long term proposition. Also bought some WIND at the same time.

[jonwig] 28/3/2013 07:34

Looking at the Risk Factors detailed in the prospectus, one in particular is a concern:

wind turbines may have shorter life-spans than their expected
life-span of 25 years. In the event that the wind turbines do not
operate for the period of time assumed by the Company in its
business model or require additional maintenance
expenditure to do so, it could have a material adverse
effect on the business, financial position, results of operations
and business prospects of the Group [p 16]

Last December, a study cast doubt on the 25 years figure:

The analysis of almost 3,000 onshore wind turbines - the biggest study of its kind -warns that they will continue to generate electricity effectively for just 12 to 15 years.

The wind energy industry and the Government base all their calculations on turbines enjoying a lifespan of 20 to 25 years.

The study estimates that routine wear and tear will more than double the cost of electricity being produced by wind farms in the next decade.



The industry is disputing the findings, but it would, wouldn't it?

NAV on admission is about 98p. I'm inclined to wait for a decent discount to that.

[daveofdevon] 27/3/2013 16:23

Just check my account at H-L. Applied for 8,000 shares got 7020 which means I was scaled back by 12.25%

[jonwig] 27/3/2013 08:44

It will go into my ISA next month with new money, but I hope the share price hangs a bit before then, as I've no intention of chasing it!

[jonwig] 22/3/2013 09:00

Thanks - H-L is one of the brokers I use (occasionally) but I rarely read the splurge of stuff they keep sending out so may have missed the opportunity.

Mind you, £50 is a bit steep!

I can see these moving to a premium thanks to the 6% initial yield and index-linking.