Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[jimmywilson612] 26/10/2023 09:28

On the flip side - alot of wind development sites aren't progressing due to rising costs & the windfall tax on green power means I personally think the REMA review will have a limited impact on the price for renewables.

It's not like the UK is being flooded with renewable developments, and the clock is ticking to decarbonise electricity & the reduce the reliance on foreign countries for Oil/Gas etc.

[nickrl] 26/10/2023 09:13

Thats an impressive divi increase over twice RPI and indicates that potentially the days of recycling surplus cash into acquisitions is being dialled back. Am happy with that if thats the strategy and with elevated power prices it should be supportable but there boxing themselves in to increasing it at RPI in the future now from a much higher base. There is also the outstanding issue of the REMA review which may end up driving down the wholesale price of renewables as well as a Labour administration. Anyhow cant fault the bold move and will put the others in the sector under pressure.

[alexisk] 26/10/2023 08:17

Wow, increase in targrt dividend for 2024 to 10p and increase in total dividend for 2023, also to 10p, plus share buyback. What is not to like?

[gemlotte55] 26/10/2023 07:25

Good update this morning, like the share buy back and increase in dividends

[yump] 22/10/2023 11:06

Given the increasing tendency of our weather systems to get stuck, plus more extreme, it would be nice to think that a government (any government) could remove some of the obstacles to grid connection for energy storage.

Otherwise the renewables energy supply will alternate between feast and famine, with nothing much to even it out.

[marktime1231] 20/10/2023 12:58

That is quite a sell off and may help explain what has been depressing the share price recently. UKW one of the good shares on a wide discount. Making hay while the wind blows especially from assets south of the B6 Boundary, I am expecting a terrific report of surplus cashflow in February, significant dividend progress and either debt reduction or preferably further acquisition of operating assets if bargains crop up. After a couple of years of under-budget wind speeds we are due some outperformance this Winter. Not at all worried by debt here, nor by the lack of political enthusiasm for onshore wind as UKW pivots to offshore, management team doing a good job.

[cc2014] 20/10/2023 12:20

I am not in this one but I am interested to see Newton have sold half their holding and 5% of the total share capital of UKW.

Of course we have no idea how long they've been selling or indeed whether they are going to sell down the last 5% although that seems likely.

[nickrl] 07/10/2023 14:40

@marktime any windfarm constrained off due to excess generation would have been compensated for lost generation so whilst its not good overall in terms of keeping fossil fuels use down at least UKW wont be affected if that was the case. The wider issue was wind production was pretty subdued in September as a whole despite Agnes although overall power prices are in the range they are forecasting against but income could be reduced this qtr then equally it could out perfrom in next qtr.

[marktime1231] 26/9/2023 17:49

Here comes Agnes.

Now with a little over 29GW of UK wind capacity in operation, roughly 50:50 onshore to offshore, you would think we are going be setting new records for peak wind energy generation which stands at 21GW from last Winter.

Except Agnes will strike overnight while demand is in a trough, so instead we are likely to see record curtailment. Maybe as many as a third of turbines shutdown because we can't make use of the free surplus. Which will send wholesale prices strongly negative, and once again we will be paying France to take some. This new reality is becoming commonplace but it is still exasperating.

Not good for UK plc nor for consumers, but UKW will be doing alright. The acquisition of South Kyle was timely.

[marktime1231] 22/9/2023 20:06

Large volume today a whole series of substantial buys pushing the share price towards 143p. I hope this is folk like us attracted to the long term buy and hold prospect, rather than Schroders architecting a deal.

[tuftymatt] 21/9/2023 11:57

😂👍🏻

[yump] 21/9/2023 11:54

I imagine all ears will be on the accompanying statement from the BOE, rather than the actual rise/not rise.

Also, there is an untapped and plentiful wind resource available directly above the House of Commons, if we don't get enough bad weather.

[tuftymatt] 21/9/2023 07:41

Yeah I thought the same too marktime while fishing leaves out of my pond 😂

Good luck all 👍🏻

[marktime1231] 20/9/2023 16:18

A strong start to the windy season, the tail-ends of a couple of Atlantic hurricances spinning the turbines steadily for days in a row to make up for a quiet couple of weeks. Energy markets firm. Debt costs probably over the worst.

Reasons to be cheerful when you co-own 2GW of generating wind assets.

[nickrl] 09/9/2023 20:47

@yump we aren't capable of that and when the politicians claim we are world leaders in wind they fail to tell you that every wind turbine is imported along with most of the high value kit. Rant aside UKW are in better shape than many of its renewable peers and once the IR cycle turns these should come back in favour.

[yump] 09/9/2023 19:15

Debt or potential debt seems to have messed up lot of smaller developing businesses in the green energy market. Hopefully that won't put back the UK's efforts to be the centre of green energy (if you believe we're capable of that).

[marktime1231] 09/9/2023 11:50

Hard to know what to wish for. Another Winter in the doldrums which causes a national crisis and pushes up the marginal price of energy from unsubsidised assets, or a blustery few months where UKW can sell everything it generates at set prices in preference to natural gas, or get compensated for curtailment. A good try nick, I think we could argue that UKW is in a win-win position with almost every scenario.

Except that higher energy prices because of a dearth of wind or problems with natural gas availability would be inflationary, and that seems to be our enemy.

It is almost all about the future direction of debt interest rates, and we should be looking to the macro to brighten, safe in the knowledge that UKW is well placed considering all those things in its own control.

Selling off some older assets with redevelopment potential to bank a net gain and chip away at the debt pile might get a good reaction?

[nickrl] 08/9/2023 15:23

Should be good news for UKW even more onshore wind competing for transmission capacity so plenty of opportunity to switch off the turbines saving wear and tear and still get paid whats not to like (unless your are consumer of course!!)

[marktime1231] 08/9/2023 14:48

AR5 putting the zero in NetZero. Instead a raft of smaller scale onshore wind and solar projects. It would be interesting to hear which projects were not submitted, and why, and what does this mean for the UK's 50GW by 2030 policy.

If future strike prices are likely to be higher it is a natural response not to bid now. If we can pay £200/MWh for tidal we can pay more than ... well we can't see what the offshore wind strike price was, I think the admin cap was £44 (2012). Onshore wind not much better, AR5 capped at £53, but obvs onshore is cheaper to deliver.

I'm guessing this is on balance good news for operators of existing renewable assets like UKW. And means gas for longer so good for the likes of ccgt power station operators?

[mwj1959] 08/9/2023 14:36

From the FT earlier...

In tennis one calls this result a bagel, a zero. The UK’s latest annual power auction received no offshore wind power project bids, the government said on Friday. It had served up a power price cap equivalent to about £60 per megawatt hour in today’s prices. That proved too low. Nevertheless, this could be good news for the wind industry.

Consider this a predictable surprise. A pre-announced price cap was about a fifth below a recent Irish Sea auction. Some companies had moaned publicly about the proposed UK price. That offered a warning. Wind farm companies refused to participate.

All is not lost. German bureaucrats took a parsimonious view on their price cap in a December wind auction, producing a historically low subscription rate near 20 per cent. Higher prices in the next two quarterly auctions earlier this year boosted that interest about seven times.

This issue is not limited to Europe. Massachusetts had to cancel offshore wind projects when bidders pulled out. Seeing this, New York watchdogs sound more pragmatic. They are considering petitions for increased power purchase agreements. These average 48 per cent on four projects from auction winners including Equinor, BP and Ørsted, notes Deepa Venkateswaran at Bernstein.

New York does not want delays. But these will hit the UK offshore wind sector if the British government does not act promptly. With no change to the schedule, an upward adjustment to the price cap would require a year’s wait. Plus some earlier wind projects are also stalling. The government could miss its offshore wind capacity target of 50GW for 2030.

Any fault goes to bureaucrats concerned about inflationary pressures. But natural gas volatility is the main factor in power price fluctuations. In coming years, offshore wind can offer more additional scale than most other renewable power sources. That means the sooner offshore wind power comes on stream the faster gas can be replaced.

[tuftymatt] 08/9/2023 10:55

The government need to revise their numbers as the costs associated with such projects are not up to date is what I read. Also the money for the energy produced is too low so no wonder companies stayed well clear.

[mwj1959] 08/9/2023 10:34

Offshore wind now looking a dead duck, for now at least, given the lack of bids at the latest government auction.

[cestnous] 07/9/2023 13:35

Div info is hard to interpret. How many times a year does it pay out and what’s the prospective yield. I’ve got 4x year and next div approx 24/10 but cant find confirmation. Thanks in advance

[wewillwin20] 06/9/2023 14:26

Check out MPL guys linked with IIP which is up 233%

[nickrl] 06/9/2023 14:25

@yump planning regulations changes announced yesterday will stop that now