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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greatland Gold Plc | GGP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.125 | 1.67% | 7.60 | 16:35:14 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.45 | 7.45 | 7.675 | 7.60 | 7.475 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 27/1/2025 13:56 by gowlane Not invested here but keeping an eye on it.My calculations show about $20m per month net profit for the stockpiled ore Costs calculated as follows No mining cost but a couple of dollars handling costs according to Shaun Day, so allow A$3 per tonne. Processing costs of A$14.90 and Telfer site G&A of A$4.09, all adds to A$22 per tonne, see GGP presentation in Dec 24. Multiplied by 35.4mt gives A$778m total production costs Add on A$10m for GGP HQ admin costs and A$106m for sustaining capex (per GGP). Add on realisation costs. The GGP presentation in October 2021, page 12, estimated then as being USD $120/oz. Adding 10% for inflation gives us USD132 or A$211 per oz. This amounts to A$88m, leaving us with total overall costs of A$982m. Now revenue calculations 82% recovery on 509,000 ozs gives 417,380 ozs of gold produced Say Gold revenues of A$4,100 per oz, less 3.5% Govt royalty gives A$1,651m net 72% recovery on 19,800 tonnes of copper, gives 13,416 tonnes of copper produced Say Copper Revenues of A$13,500 per tonne less 3.5% royalty gives A$184.564m net revenue. Deducting the copper credits of A$184m from costs of A$982m costs gives us net costs of A$798m On to Profits Deducting A$798m costs from gold revenues of A$1,651m gives pre tax profit of A$853m Less 30% tax leaves us with A$597m profit after tax, equal to USD of USD373m If produced over 18 months gives a net profit of USD20.7m per month Still a chunk of money but nothing like the figures being quoted My main caveat would be that a 40 year old mine might require extended shut down periods for care and maintenance and the recovery rates on the low grade stockpiled ore might be lower still than those experienced in December. |
Posted at 23/1/2025 12:19 by hydrogen1 Abrahe00 .. I think it's necessary to reshape your thinking here.Hard, but we have to look at Greatland though an entirely new lens: The company has been truly transformed by Shaun Day. Simply put it's not a 'JUNIOR GOLD developer' anymore - it's a top 5 (soon to be ASX listed) Australian 'gold miner'. Obviously a HUGE SUCESS from management using extremely clever deal execution and leveraged circumstances.. In my view Shaun Day is yet to be fully recognised for this frankly astonishing achievement (but don't worry, that's still to come). IMO we have to accept there probably wont be that much exploration news or new link ups/ JVs with far flung organisations for some time (especially with speculative companies who have nothing tangible to offer - eg Wishbone or GBP). I'm not saying there won't be new drilling; at Scally or Black hills. I'm, sure that will continue. I think the corporation's intense focus will NOW rightly be fully on transforming Telfer. Telfer is a massive proven, former T1, globally significant, gold mine. Transforming it back into a major, highl profitable gold/copper asset is by far the biggest and best opportunity for Greatland. It's immediate payback. Every dollar spent at Telfer directly improves our balance sheet - which in turn, directly increases the chances of perfect execution success at Havieron. Telfer pays for Havieron... Havieron makes us rich. Havieron is an exceptional, massive asset. The delivery of its full development potential will not only be hugely profitable, but also fairly complicated from an engineering perspective. There is a well known adage - within the mining industry - that a junior bringing on a single development asset, as a single asset company, is about the most difficult risky scenario in gold mining. Period. which means there's a lot of upside too. BUT The fact is - we NOW have side-stepped that risk with a 400z PA gold mine in Telfer humming away for 2, 3, 5 or 10 more years, making this company far less risky. Greatland and Havieron is hugely de risked. And now the fact stands, extending Telfer's mine life is more important than anything to GGP shareholders right now... For a long time - We were led to believe the narrative that Telfer was running out of gold. I'm not sure where that came from , probably Gervais and Callum - but we were led to believed that's why Havieron was so critical to Telfer. Which long term, sure, it was... so it was not dishonest... However we now understand Telfer's short mine life was probably more a function of NCMs operational laziness and competition for capital within the group than Telfer running out of gold. SO - The truth, it transpires was slightly different. Hav was critical to Telfer and NCM long term because they saw Telfer as a problem asset compared to Cadia. But the timescale is not well understood. Shaun day said Telfer was ripe for a massive overhall. Telfer is so big Daysays it may easily run for another 10 years (or like Jundee another 20 years), if the gold price environment supports economic production. I can’t emphasise enough that when I first met SD a few years back how excited he was at the prospect of making a huge efficiency savings at Telfer. He was literally chomping at the bit back then, ridiculing the way NCM ran Telfer with that "stupid little NCM book of theirs "How to mine gold” ...from the 1980s that they still followed to the letter". At the time it had no context, because I don’t think I believed he could pull it off - it was like an outrageous childhood fantasy or something! How could GGP possible buy Telfer and Havieron?! - well, just look at how the cookie crumbled. That ALL facilitates a low risk pathway to the full (5-6Mt - ie GGP scale) development of Havieron. Once production is executed, then other opportunities such as Antipa will be considered to fill Telfer; eventually. Reality is today we are a long way from that. Matty Michael ex miner who presents on Money of Mine pod cast claimed In todays podcast some crucial NEW intelligence : that there was once a high level plan some years ago to mine the whole zone between the main dome open pit and the the west dome open pit and underground. That's an absolutely F massive opportunity to contemplate, but the 2017-2019 gold price probably precluded it... Well >>>> Hello $4400 AUD gold my old friend... The next key transformation will be the re-rate to match Australian Goldie peers as GGP become a top 4/5 Australian gold miner : I can guarantee that hasn't happened yet - but it is going to be quite a ride. Enjoy ;0) |
Posted at 05/1/2025 15:01 by lurker5 Another mind-bogglingly irrelevant and desperate gem from our Dim friend displaying his utter ignorance of markets and funds. How does anyone who hasn't analysed Pengana's portfolio and the performance contribution from each holding tell that its GGP holding will continue to help its out-performance ? For all anyone knows it happened to catch GGP at just its lemming spike while other holdings might have contributed more. To say that because a fund has a GGP holding means GGP will continue to outperform is what one would expect from a child - and a very backward one at that. Every time you post Dim, you dig yourself in even deeper. You know nothing about fund management and their managers capabilities and tactics. |
Posted at 04/1/2025 22:45 by hydrogen1 Hey Timber, check this out ;hxxps://www.afr.com/ Pengana’s high conviction, go anywhere value fund just bought 56m GGp shares according to Morningstar… BUT here’s the big deal - they are Australia’s 2nd best performing fund for 2024! Massive Slam dunk validation that GGP is cheap … very cheap. But even better… their AUM is quite small so they’ve thrown over 10% at GGP to show their total confidence in management! |
Posted at 31/12/2024 07:38 by timberwolf Yet another global fund management company increasing it's holding in GGP.Konwave AG has recently increased it's holding by 59,987,000 shares to now total 92,987,000 GGP shares, and is now another one of the largest GGP fund holders... |
Posted at 15/12/2024 07:28 by hydrogen1 Well that miserable post didn't age well did it ... Imo this is 10p by Friday (but it's worth 35p++ now) ... massive breakout 2months post placing. Today ggp is now Australia's top 5 gold producer:hTTps://you |
Posted at 06/12/2024 12:12 by lurker5 Do you understand what the justification is for a PER Dim ? It relies on the forecast growth and sustainability of earnings. Once Hav is up and running with regular dependable earnings there won't be any annual growth, so investors will value on a dividend yield basis. But Hav's cash flow will go to repaying capex loans (we won't know how much until the DFS) and on exploration, plus whatever else GGP might buy. What with the panic starting now to buy capacity, there probaby won't be any economically viable projects still available. That's why your assumptions re GGP's future are ridiculous. |
Posted at 03/12/2024 13:37 by hydrogen1 No Toast Just look at the price paid for De Grey. They paid $300 US per resource oz as a first bid with a huge $1.4bn construction capex THAT MEANS THAT NST HAVE TO PAY OVER 6.5BN MIN TO GET DEGREY INTO PRODUCTIONWe have as much gold NOW AND at better grade, with no where near the plant, and metallurgical complexity. BUT Thing was GGP was not for sale. Not like DeGrey. >>>> De Grey’s chosen method is pressure oxidation, a pathway operated at around 20 sites worldwide. For the investment community, many of the questions around Hemi come down to the expected performance of the POX circuit. “We’re very comfortable with pressure oxidation. Almost 40% of the world’s gold production comes from refractory ore bodies,” Jardine said. “There are 20 pressure oxidation plants around the world, including three or four in the Asia-Pacific region. “We don’t see any particular concerns with commissioning that plant.” GGP JUST DIG IT UP AND PROCESS IT. MUCH MUCH MORE SIMPLE. Therefore you can add the ocapex to the price paid which is 590/oz in AUD or $382 US per resource oz IF GGP was valued at $382/ resource ounce let's assume 9moz on todays reports. = US $3.43bn for GGP YUP $3.43 bn based on like for like of UKP2.71bn today if sold... Not to mention the infrastructure that you get with that price. You could arguably take off the $400m Capex to build Havieron but still 20p a share sold now today... But Degrey is 5 years away from production. GGP is in production tomorrow. Big re rate... coming. Funny eh? |
Posted at 22/11/2024 11:47 by hydrogen1 Stupid boy Pike -It is certain oz super Pension funds that are typically ASX mandated only. And a single Pension fund can own up to 10 or 15% of individual companies. They tend to support Australian companies with an 'Australia First' attitude... Take Sandfire resources the copper company they were principally Australian with tyiheui launch asset Degrussa and Monte mines but are now principally operating in Botswana and the Iberian copper belt. But the Oz super funds own like 20-25% of the company (and that's before all the other big ETFs and fund mangers listed here which are listed 'fund managers' and funds not pension funds.) I have written several detailed poss over on www. GGP chat last year all about the Oz pension funds and how they operate and their Australian bias for commodites. Most already have small starter positions in Greatland... Regarding the 100-200 % Bullishness - Upside there's a rather good post from Bamps21 on LSE which I will repost here. (below) where I largely agree with his numbers and growth potential... Personally I see as easily 4-5x from here (where Bamps an I have disagreed was what the initial DFS Hav Production volume would finally contain - my sources say 6Mt was feasible (and up to 8mt) was possible from Havieron... but Bamps thinks this was unlikely in the first DFS and thus many years away. ) I think you could argue we were perhaps both correct, given the 6month delay to 'contemplate bulk handling system' (ie conveyor decline or haul shaft) Bamps LSE post of this AM: "At the moment Ggp have 30% of 2.9mozeq reserves, that is 870,000 oz eqv. at Havieron. This figure could rise considerably . The 86% conversion factor achieved so far of resource into reserves of 5m+oz eqv equates roughly to 4.5moz eqv. At the moment Ggp has around 19% of the potential reserves given the MRE We could be looking at 5 fold increase in reserves if MNRE expands say 20-30% and the existing resource is converted by 86% Oh yes and now there’s Telfer:- Resource estimate early this year of 426,000oz eqv, Shaun is quoting lately of 500,000oz eqv. That’s a 15% jump. Exploration targets removed from the Newmont MRE could add from 1.3 to 1.5moz eqv ie over a 100% jump. Other assets omitted from Newmonts MRE could = 300,000ozeq Total Telfer resources 2.3moz eqv (less a hefty conversion/recovery factor 65%) would give a reserve approx 1.5moz. Total GGP reserves could be 6moz eqv. Therefore 870koz eq now is 14% gives a 7 fold increase in reserves after acquisition and some updates. On top of this will be the results from the West Dome Deep, I’m estimating 500koz from the top half to be announced in March. A lot to look forward to given the we are in production the moment we get the keys" |
Posted at 12/11/2024 08:59 by lurker5 Oops - heading back to 4.8p as predicted.I don't need apologies - but thnx anyway toast ! Just to remind of the economies with the truth being peddled by Shaugn and totally ignored (or not even noticed) by the clappies 1) NEM is 'happy'to keep 20% of GGP. Wrong. The Aim admission doc says clearly many times that 'if' GGP had been able to raise more than it did, NEM would have taken cash for 10% instead of as GGP shares. But investors obviously wouldn't cough up. 2) Still pretending that SD was 'instrumental' in Northern Star's phenomenal rise. Wrong. SD only joined NS in Oct 2014 (and then in a finance role and not one where technical and economic decisions re an acquisitions would be taken) 'after' the key decsions had been made to acquire cheaply (when they had been decimated by the previous gold price slump) the Jundee, Plutonic, Kundana and Kanowna Belle mines 'heralded acc to the chairman in 2015 'as the arrival of Northern Star as a significant force in the Australian gold mining industry.' It was those, benefiting from the subsequent near 50% rise in gold later on that drove N Star's performance. To pretend GGP can repeat it is grotesque Clappy and Roast Numptie nonsense. 3) Pretending that GGP is more vluable than DeGrey, when any competent analyst can show that DeGrey is far more advanced with a much stronger balance sheet. s 4) Coming after the 'no dilution' blatant weasel words based not on what counts for the shares - ie profitability or cash - but on the remote from value and imprecise 'resource' Its all bluster, as is obviously being recognised in the share performance |
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