Positive update fully let, expect 4 to 5 % growth, next few years. GRI has modern buildings fully compliant to regs, now more expensive to build due to new regs, eg extra stairwell on high apartments, fire regs etc. Forecast div 2027 10p. Selling old regulated portfolio to fund new builds, good value. |
This is money: "Grainger rents soar as the UK's biggest private landlord bets on BTR"https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14362743/Grainger-rents-soar-UKs-biggest-private-landlord-bets-build-rent.html |
Just to provide a bit of colour, 95% occupancy is considered "fully let" and at 96% this is a strong result, particularly over the slowest part of the lettings season (Christmas). The past two years have been an exceptional rental market, caused by a post pandemic bounce, so not a great comp to look back over the past year or two. The market is simply normalising, albeit with strong underlying, structural, long term drivers of growing rental demand (both demographic and economic trends) and under supply (both structural due to low housing development numbers but also as the buy-to-let investment market struggles and small landlords exit the market). |
Just looking at the January '23 occupancy level - 98%. |
Occupancy, while remaining strong, appears to be drifting a tad - now 96%.
Was it not 97.4% on the previous update.. |
I have just re listened to the Annual Results presentation from Nov 24. All good in my view. My recollection in part of the Q&A seemed to identify that the company projection for post tax earning post REiT conversion didn’t assume rental growth on existing and didn’t include the tax saving. I think Tim from Panmure Liberum said ‘softest guidance I’ve ever heard’ and everyone laughed.
TU looks OK to me today too.
I haven’t sold any grandchildren to top up under 220p but intend to add now as I’ve sold something else. Good luck all.
Interesting to note Grainger read our ADVFN chat and thanks for that contribution the other day, useful regarding occupancy, lettings. |
Just shows how ridiculous the market can be between news, certainly no reason for the far price to be down at these levels.. |
At first glance this update looks amazing. I feel like I am missing something.
"
· 15% growth in total net rental income
· Total like-for-like rental growth strong at 4.7% YTD
· Stabilised PRS portfolio occupancy remains high at 96.0%
" |
Very good update with 96% occupancy rate. |
What's not to like in today's update. |
Thanks for flagging. We advertise apartments that will become vacant in the future but are not yet so that we minimise turn around time between tenancies. |
The above is the link I used. Type in Guildford, property available to rent..it displays 13 apartments. |
Kurt, thanks for the clarification.
It might be an idea to have the website updated. |
Hello. There are currently only 2 apartments vacant and available to let at The Mint in Guildford, which has 98 apartments in total. We are providing a trading update to the market on Wednesday next week (5 Feb) to align to our AGM, where we will provide an update on both occupancy and rental growth for the first four months of this financial year to the end of January. BestKurt Head of IR |
The Mint, Guildford currently appears to have 13 apartments to rent.
Not good and prices appear too high to me. |
Sonia futures for 2028 are ~4% (10 year gilt 4.6) and then need to add credit risk premium. GRI pays 1.5 to 1.8% at present. Slightly better LTV/Rating SUPR BBB+ (GRI BBB-) paid 1.55% risk premium recently
So close to 6% total cost is quite easy to see. 3% is for the birds
Saying that am long, not for a good profit outlook but as expect some corporate action |
Igoe, there would be a premium to the base rate on a refinancing - I would guess (no crystal ball) that it's unlikely to be 6%. |
The debt is capped until the end of 2028, by then the interest rates will probably be less than 3%,, I don't see a issue about debt.
Interest rates are predicted to fall to 3.5% to 3.75 by year end anyway. Don't know why a certain poster on this forum talking about GRI having to pay 6% on the dedt...
Where does he get the 6% from, when clearly going forward interest rates are dropping, starting on 6th Feb well possibly.... |
(BLOOMBERG) London Rents Rise at Slowest Pace Since 2021, Rightmove Says
• London rent inflation has slowed to its weakest in three years, with average advertised rent rising 0.1% to £2,695 per month in the fourth quarter.
• Outside of London, rents fell for the first time since 2019, marking a "key milestone" in the cooling of the rental market.
• The supply of rental properties is increasing, with a 13% year-on-year rise in available properties, helping to ease the pressure on tenants.
BLOOMBERG expects landlords such as Grainger Plc to feel the pain both in their financial and operational performance |
Regarding rental growth, I actually think GRI took their foot of the gas there and could have raised rents faster based on their latest occupancy rates. |
Credit spreads are low not high right now in the UK. |
As i said before the main concern for me is the ~50% gearing and when it resets from 3.2%. A reset to say 6% will cost 1.5bn x 2.8% = 42m
Think they should start reversing growth, selling assets which will prove NAV along with buying back
Agree on a coming slowdown, long rates plus wider credit spreads simply arent sustainable by the economy |
The main potential area of concern I have is on occupancy, with data last week showing UK private sector jobs being cut at rates seen previously in recessions. |
The above was made clear before the GE.
That could change under a future administration.
The keys for GRI are occupancy, rental growth and cost of capital.
I will have a look at their Guilford development this week if I have time, traffic dreadful around the area atm with the A3 widening works ongoing. |
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