Grainger plc issued a solid trading update reporting strong rental growth and occupancy as demand for rental housing continues to build. Like-for-like rental growth was 6.1% ytd, with record occupancy of 98.7%. The outlook is also upbeat, 2023 is a year of record investment and delivery for Grainger with c.£300m of capital expenditure on committed developments in 2023 and the delivery of 1,640 new, purpose-built, energy-efficient rental homes for the year. Valuation is a little unhelpful, forward PE ratio and PS ratio are 3rd quartile. The share price also lacks momentum. One to monitor for the time being...
...from WealthOracle |
I had the same impression but I’ve no spare funds to top up having done my last one in the 260s.
Not had chance to watch the 8.30 presentation Q&A yet.
Given the fall in commercial valuations flagged by Land and Bland this week GRI NAV proved to be a safe haven, quite stable (UP). |
Solid earnings results for Grainger; in particular increase in rents from PRS, with rent increases escalating in the second-half. At first the numbers looked low to me (+4.8%), but it is increasing and probably slightly lags inflation. So hopefully will continue to rise.
Good pipeline of projects and execution to get on stream and let out.
Debt is relatively low for a property business, and seems well-managed.
Disciplined cost control (unlike some businesses reporting recently).
Overall, a good full-year.
I am bullish on the private rented sector in the UK given limitless government incompetence around housing policy, and private landlords pulling out of the market. Grainger could even be a takeover target for large institutions looking to get into the market quickly. |
If take 300p and 220p share price shift, add in the 31% gearing, the market has priced in a 18% property price fall. |
I just bought back at 2.10 a tranche sold almost exactly three years ago. I've held since 2010, trading in a small way. Bargain at this price. I wonder if they still hold the portfolio of freeholds to upmarket houses in Kensington and central London they bought some years ago. Must be worth a few bob by now. |
Quote from recent newspaper article.
Rents are already at record levels in the capital with tenants reporting a chronic lack of supply as young people flood back into London to return to the office after the work from home.
GRI a buy at 2.60, as new builds EPC A & B cheap to heat, so may pay a bit more in Rent but save in heating also one of few landlords with good sites in London & Southeast. So tenants also save in travel costs, young workers no longer want draughty victorian flats, willing to pay for comfort. Just added 2.59, have a good weekend. |
Yes think rental yields will rise. I have seen them go from 8% to 3% and expect some reversion. If not BTL post borrowing becomes a loss on income and capital, creating sales and less supply |
If property values fall in general, will rents nevertheless stay put at their current levels? As if on a stalk? I suppose they will for so long as various term contracts last, the inverse of fixed-price mortgages as it were. But, longer term surely rents will fall in line with capital values. |
"I think valuations are largely driven by rentals, rental growth, and obviously the discount rate. The first 2 variables are going up but the third one is going up too if you know what I mean."
Exactly my thinking. At some point in 2 years the energy market will fall back, gas futs are half now in 2 years. Probably wont see 1k/1.5k cap again as was too low post covid. But £2k seems likely to me, then inflation, interest rates and so the discount rate will come back down but wage rises locked in and asset prices will then reset |
I agree that rentals should stay strong, which is what attracts me to this type of REIT, I am more concerned about long-term interest rates and their effect on property valuations. In an ideal scenario, I would start accumulating on any significant dips or equity raises |
Yes, one of my original reasons for buying was the chance that one of the new entrants to the UK PRS market might buyout GRI as a shortcut. |
I think valuations are largely driven by rentals, rental growth, and obviously the discount rate. The first 2 variables are going up but the third one is going up too if you know what I mean.
I’m hoping forseeable developments remain fully funded and that they don’t want more equity in the forseeable, that’s all. I’d be interested to see them turnover some historic B2R stuff which perhaps doesn’t reach current standards to fund next steps.
Even doubling units from 9/10k to 18/20k over the long term would still have GRI as a tiddler in the wider world of professional lets. M&A can’t be ruled out one day. It’s a hodl for me. |
That kind of sniffing's ongoing I'd say, & reflected in performance here since the shares' peak at the start of 2020. Can always get a lot smellier suddenly though.... |
Does the market sniff a potential fall in UK property values due to higher interest rates, which would lead to a lower NAV valuation for GRI ??? |
I have owned GRI for a while. I think the PRS story is strong in the UK, with a generation rent opting for professionally managed flats rather than ad hoc landlords.
The UK government's endless incompetent meddling with small landlords' taxes and regulation should actually help the big guys.
However, slow going on the share price despite the company seeming to be doing the right things and looking well-run.
What gives? |
If not this morning? Is there a particular reason for this morning's weakness, I wonder. |
Safe haven. |
One of my big disappoinments -big demand for rental , record profits but share price off its high and yield nothing to write home about. |
Cheers steve3sandal did buy a few today as I also thought it was rather cheap. |
Off the top of my head I think the proposal impacts social housing associations not Grainger which owns/rents commercially albeit affordable, and under restricted tenancies (these revert upon the demise or moving out of the tenant.).
On another subject the share price is weak and some might consider this an opportunity. |
Not sure if the new plan to give private tenants the right to buy will effect GRI. |
Yeh. Computer said ………;……blah! |
Dividend yield of 6.4% ? Surely some mistake.It's c 2.0% at present as far as I know. |
Grainger is currently offering rental home services, signifying that the firm is a provider, designer, owner and operator of rental homes across the UK. Given the plausible and diversified funding structure, the group derived an attractive PRS portfolio growth of 97%. This evidence is supported by the robust £1.9bn pipeline, which is expected to deliver further growth in recurring earnings, as net rental income is likely to be 2.5 times over the medium term, since the firm is trading ahead of market expectations. Subsequently, the firm was able to finance its operating and investing activities more effectively with respect to the previous year, as illustrated from the concise P/FCF ratio of 12.8. Furthermore, Grainger has capitalised on these opportunities and optimised its financing activities, allowing the firm to provide a relatively high and plausible dividend yield of 6.4% while enabling investors to optimise returns on investment.
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Added a few at 301.5p average. Hopefully rental growth will be driven by wage growth |
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