"I think valuations are largely driven by rentals, rental growth, and obviously the discount rate. The first 2 variables are going up but the third one is going up too if you know what I mean."
Exactly my thinking. At some point in 2 years the energy market will fall back, gas futs are half now in 2 years. Probably wont see 1k/1.5k cap again as was too low post covid. But £2k seems likely to me, then inflation, interest rates and so the discount rate will come back down but wage rises locked in and asset prices will then reset |
I agree that rentals should stay strong, which is what attracts me to this type of REIT, I am more concerned about long-term interest rates and their effect on property valuations. In an ideal scenario, I would start accumulating on any significant dips or equity raises |
Yes, one of my original reasons for buying was the chance that one of the new entrants to the UK PRS market might buyout GRI as a shortcut. |
I think valuations are largely driven by rentals, rental growth, and obviously the discount rate. The first 2 variables are going up but the third one is going up too if you know what I mean.
I’m hoping forseeable developments remain fully funded and that they don’t want more equity in the forseeable, that’s all. I’d be interested to see them turnover some historic B2R stuff which perhaps doesn’t reach current standards to fund next steps.
Even doubling units from 9/10k to 18/20k over the long term would still have GRI as a tiddler in the wider world of professional lets. M&A can’t be ruled out one day. It’s a hodl for me. |
That kind of sniffing's ongoing I'd say, & reflected in performance here since the shares' peak at the start of 2020. Can always get a lot smellier suddenly though.... |
Does the market sniff a potential fall in UK property values due to higher interest rates, which would lead to a lower NAV valuation for GRI ??? |
I have owned GRI for a while. I think the PRS story is strong in the UK, with a generation rent opting for professionally managed flats rather than ad hoc landlords.
The UK government's endless incompetent meddling with small landlords' taxes and regulation should actually help the big guys.
However, slow going on the share price despite the company seeming to be doing the right things and looking well-run.
What gives? |
If not this morning? Is there a particular reason for this morning's weakness, I wonder. |
Safe haven. |
One of my big disappoinments -big demand for rental , record profits but share price off its high and yield nothing to write home about. |
Cheers steve3sandal did buy a few today as I also thought it was rather cheap. |
Off the top of my head I think the proposal impacts social housing associations not Grainger which owns/rents commercially albeit affordable, and under restricted tenancies (these revert upon the demise or moving out of the tenant.).
On another subject the share price is weak and some might consider this an opportunity. |
Not sure if the new plan to give private tenants the right to buy will effect GRI. |
Yeh. Computer said ………;……blah! |
Dividend yield of 6.4% ? Surely some mistake.It's c 2.0% at present as far as I know. |
Grainger is currently offering rental home services, signifying that the firm is a provider, designer, owner and operator of rental homes across the UK. Given the plausible and diversified funding structure, the group derived an attractive PRS portfolio growth of 97%. This evidence is supported by the robust £1.9bn pipeline, which is expected to deliver further growth in recurring earnings, as net rental income is likely to be 2.5 times over the medium term, since the firm is trading ahead of market expectations. Subsequently, the firm was able to finance its operating and investing activities more effectively with respect to the previous year, as illustrated from the concise P/FCF ratio of 12.8. Furthermore, Grainger has capitalised on these opportunities and optimised its financing activities, allowing the firm to provide a relatively high and plausible dividend yield of 6.4% while enabling investors to optimise returns on investment.
Keep up to date with WealthOracle AM |
Added a few at 301.5p average. Hopefully rental growth will be driven by wage growth |
Andy Brough interview with PIWORLD
Andy Brough mentions Grainger #GRI in the latest PIWORLD interview at 12m15s
Watch the video here:
Or listen to the Podcast here: |
Adjusted Profit, adjusted dividend. Everyone adjusts everything these days but it all becomes clear when I check my pockets. |
Yes that's right. I like to see PI's included in fundraising wherever possible so that what's just happened as you describe, doesn't.
I also thought it was very unusual to announce a 53% rise in profits & a dividend cut at the same time. Usually divis rise when profits do, or at any rate stay the same. |
Surely it depends how you look at it dogwalker.
The increase in the number of shares (which you refer to as dilution) means there a more shares which receive the dividend (so the quantum so far as the company is concerned hasn't reduced).
It's just that individual shareholders who weren't party to the dilution (fundraising) have seen their dividend fall slightly. |
Dogwalker, cant say the yield bothers me, in fact keen for them to reinvest for capital growth. But thats the rub, its disappointing at only 4% this year |
The cut in the dividend follows logically from the dilution a few months back I presume. Not a very shareholder-friendly company , this one.
Maybe something for the new 'Chief People Officer' to think about? |
Ah ha. So £3.10 Maybe able to add around there, thanks for the alert. |
Added in the auction, dont feel so annoyed not offered any in placing now. |
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