Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[scruff1] 02/2/2024 18:40

Specto - read the citi wire article

[alan pt] 02/2/2024 17:06

Something structural could be V2G/V2X, especially combined with solid state batteries, but that's at least 5 years away at scale

GRID seems to be going from bad to worse - their answer to poor revenue in the UK is to suspend work on their new US asset to save money???

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 14:59

Thanks @smidge21, albeit "co that diversifies revenue says revenue diversifying is good (& uncorrelated)".

My fear, perhaps unfounded, would be something structural, and not limited to one market at a time. What does that do to the investment thesis.

GSF by far the pick of them, but how could HEIT/GRID get it so wrong?

[scruff1] 02/2/2024 14:42

Article in city wire about GRID, HEIT and GSF - mainly HEIT but a good synopsis of the BESS situation in the UK

[smidge21] 02/2/2024 14:41

(From Company)

[smidge21] 02/2/2024 14:41

"Regarding your questions on dividend and revenue (durability), we believe energy storage revenues are cyclical, and in each of the markets we are active in, we see seasonal variation and periods of higher and lower revenue generation. The typical variation we see in each market is shown on the graphic below and available on page 12 of the Company's interim presentation here. As well as the seasonal variation, broader moves in markets can occur, such as the current dynamics we are seeing in GB. This cyclical nature of the industry highlights the importance of portfolios being diversified across different markets, which, while sharing the same investment thesis, are, in fact, uncorrelated. The Company included in its Interim results a regression analysis, which compared GSF's GB revenue data from the Company's inception with that from its diversified fleet. The analysis showed the standard revenue deviation per quarter amounted to £4.95 per MW/hr. In the analysis of the consolidated fleet, which includes assets in Ireland, Germany, Texas, and GB, the quarterly standard deviation of revenue dropped significantly to £ 2.68 per M/hr. This reduction of approximately 50% (post-FX) showcases the tangible impact of diversification on revenue stability and, thus, a Company's ability to sustainably pay dividends to its investors. For further details, please see page 13 of the Company's interim report

[leadixon] 02/2/2024 13:52

appreciate the update Cocopah - good work

[cc2014] 02/2/2024 10:53

What next? First GSF has clearly decoupled from HEIT and GRID so it's good to see most investors have got to grips with the idea that 82% of GSF's revenues are not from the UK. Perhaps most investors that are left well informed.

I'd like to think that in the background GSF have been quietly reassuring investors and that this is the bottom and the share price will bounce from here. I have my fingers crossed.

[nickelmer] 02/2/2024 09:30

Investors likely to sell GRID and HEIT and switch into the better portfolio that is GSF

[mr george stobbart] 02/2/2024 09:08

Harmony cut the dividend until further notice. Down another -10% and has fallen in the 30p purgatory. Market is pricing a bust or a wind-up similar to the likes of Digital 9 Trust.

Gore Street the only one not to come out with a trading/dividend update.

GSF shares up today whilst the GRID / HEIT duo taking another bath

[waterloo01] 01/2/2024 19:50

Well done for reaching out. Look forward to the feedback.

[cocopah] 01/2/2024 19:21

I am currently in correspondence with investor relations, funnily enough this started before the news from #GRID today. I have a call booked to discuss why there seems to be a reluctance to update NAV monthly (like #SEQI do) and also to give forward guidance on dividend cover (until the issue goes away). I also want to understand the difference between operational dividend cover and fund-wide dividend cover (the latter being the cause of the recent slump since the Jefferies note).

The call is booked for next week, so I am also going to bring up investor frustration at the lack of communication following today’s announcement by #GRID. Unless #GSF have some bad news to share it seems ludicrous that they do not put a statement out saying that dividend is covered or (say) 90% covered on an ongoing basis and that the dividend is safe. After all, they were keen to tell us all about dividend cover being above 1.15 for the last quarter so they can’t have it both ways (i.e. say that they don’t want to say anything now when they made such a hullabaloo about the dividend cover at the last update).

In fairness the investor relations team at Gore Street are approachable and will communicate, so I suggest investors on here should contact them … if nothing else a significant number of approaches by those on this forum will probably result in an RNS.🤷‍♂️€077;🏻

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 19:00

H-P wanted billions, but it was they who were stupid enough to buy AU., at a big premium, despite being told that the accounts were suspect. The main bearish analyst even wrote to the H-P board.

Anyway... :)

Not currently in GSF but I do like it - seems by far the best-managed. Saw the UK problems coming ages ago, and also that 14m share issuance at NAV to deal with any CapEx concerns.

Not entirely immune, but not exactly expensive here.

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 16:46

No - what's right is the price they meet at :)

EMH clearly bull, but neither can you buck the market. Doesn't matter how cheap and successful the wonderful share you've bought is - if it tanks, it tanks.

Vice versa and even worse on the short side, as I discovered being short Autonomy once.

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 16:39

re; post #955 "the market rarely gets it wrong".

Anyone who owns shares and is considering selling some of their shares, or perhaps all of their shares, is part of the market.
Anyone buying shares, or contemplating buying shares, is part of the market.

Are they all right all of the time?

[yump] 01/2/2024 12:29

The market had it right for nesf, phnx, aviva, sre, bbox when they were all at lows. At the time.

Fortunately plenty of investors didn’t believe “the market” and they are all now higher by a fair bit.

So which market is right ?

I think the clue is when there’s a general drop (this time interest rate induced), but the company you’re watching carries on down when the others stabilise.

Hence the effect of debt costs on the share price of sme loss makers.

[scruff1] 01/2/2024 10:56

Its winter here

[alan pt] 01/2/2024 10:54

To be fair, we are doing a lot better than GRID - 56% loss in just one month!

[nickelmer] 01/2/2024 10:47

This is my point, GORE are in a far better position than GRID and HEIT, this needs to be be clearly stated by the company

[cc2014] 01/2/2024 10:14

To cheer you up. This is from North America on ERCOT. GSF are on ERCOT in Texas. I have no idea if it created any revenue for GSF as Texas seems a bit far from North America. My point kind of stands regardless however, prices ramping to £925/MWh compared with the £50/MWh we are currently running for spot in the UK.



Battery energy storage participation aided grid operations during scarcity conditions
During Heather’s coldest days, on January 15th and 16th, batteries provided significant response to net load peaks. These peaks occurred on both mornings, as well as on the evening of the 16th.

In particular, on January 16th, solar generation set a new record: more than 14 GW of generation. This kept prices low over the course of the operating day. However, during the evening, those 14 GW ramped offline as the sun began to set.

At the same time, demand rose as temperatures fell. This combination caused real-time prices to spike. ERCOT’s bus average hub reached $1,175/MWh during the settlement interval between 6:15 and 6:30pm.

[nickelmer] 01/2/2024 10:11

GORE directors need to issue a clarifying statement to the market, if not, they risk being tarred with the same brush as GRID and HEIT when they are not in the same position but a much more positive one, I am not impressed with the poor communication

[alan pt] 01/2/2024 09:51

A bit higher than normal volume, but not exceptional

The CP+ board is full of examples of market inefficiency

[brucie5] 01/2/2024 09:50

Hmm. Looks like there might be another opportunity to buy at 60p.
According to AIC discount currently showing at 37.64 and dividend at 10.74.

Their recent statement included these two paragraphs, which I liked:

"Strong Revenue Stability Continues: the Company achieved an
estimated quarterly revenue of £15.1/MW/hr, consistent with the £15.1/MW/hr
generated during FY H1. This stable revenue profile has been achieved through
the Company's diversified portfolio incorporating multiple uncorrelated
markets, system chemistries and durations. The Company's Northern Irish
assets, for example, delivered record high estimated revenue of £31.4/MW/hr
during FY Q3, building on the strong revenue performance of the Company's
Texas portfolio during FY Q2. The seasonal patterns of revenue generation
across grids aligns with expectations and emphasises the significance of
uncorrelated revenue cycles between markets, underscoring the advantages of
activity across diverse, uncorrelated grids within an energy storage
portfolio."

And-

"Looking ahead, we anticipate the Company's most pivotal year yet with
operational capacity scheduled to expand to over 800 MW, including 200 MW
coming online in the Company's fifth market to date; potential capital
recycling; and a strengthening dividend cover from a diverse source of revenue
streams. The Company is poised for significant growth and we look forward to
updating the market regularly as these plans progress."

I hold.