For me this is a massive opportunity. Shares trashed by forced sellers, UK market issues, dividend cuts, ITC doubts etc etc Risky but capital appreciation and yield make it compelling for my pension pot |
To quote: “Unlike the money in the loans office, the IRA’s tax credits — the main form of subsidy in the legislation — are unlikely to be affected” |
Trump’s announcement doesn’t impact tax credits on completed projects. As per the FT. |
A reaction to the full certainty re tax credit. While we await confirmation, should get Enderby online and followed by Dogfish. |
Hopefully. But take out Mondays dive and the Rns/ update has added nowt and the downwards continues. I think the only folk with any hope left are all on this board |
Good timing hopefully
"Construction continues to progress well at Dogfish, the 75 MW / 75 MWh asset in Texas, with all major cabling works complete. The asset remains on track for energisation in February" |
trump can say what he wants
he doesn't have the power to renege on signed contracts via executive order. He certainly can't change the US Constitution that way. He knows that. He wants the bad old "deep state" to stop him.
the winner will be the lawyers |
Back to normal. FT obviously not on GSF investors reading list !! Probably cant afford it |
I thought maybe some might be interested in this and the way NESO are starting to approach time shifting energy management from the demand side.
I cannot decide whether to take part or not. I have a heat pump connected and it's not especially helpful turning it off for longer than an hour. |
Drill Baby Drill
perhaps one day soon a new executive order for new natural gas pipeline from Gulf of America to Los Angeles? ...looks like nothings off the table |
Agree. An endless stream of wealth managers sellers. |
I cant say Im over excited. I thought Big Rock was supposed to be energised last month. I suspect we will be back on our normal flight path by the end of the day. |
RCF is priced at SONIA + 300bps. SONIA is currently 4.7%. So 7.7%. It was recently upsized - and isn't even fully drawn. It won't be repaid unless it allows GSF to subsequently redraw on it.
The Big Rock project finance is likely to be cheaper, since it is backed by the asset and the fixed revenues from Goldman Sachs. |
Seems like a parable of the UK atm: noone believes in it, least of all its home investors, so it can only present at knock down values to the first suitor. I hope this will be resisted, but it means having a clear path to recovery of value including the funding of dividends, which is the main reason I'm here. |
I think this could be the start of a rebound here. UK BESS market improving, US presence with potential tax credits to come, HEIT sale imminent hopefully near NAV. If the shares don't bounce this is a sitting duck for an infrastructure fund |
There is no way to work out the debt unless you know the outstanding payables and outstanding construction costs. |
What's the debt at present? Perhaps $100M at 10%, which would cost GSF $10M a year? |
To prevent a share price rout the graph would need to change its trend upwards. People need to consistently buy this stock for that to happen. Ie believe in it with conviction |
Monetising the Tax Credits will make a huge difference to this fund, buy backs or increased dividends become a real possibility |
I have worked it out on the nominal EV which is effectively the mkt cap as either the tax credit will be used to pay back the debt else will be reinvested or sit as cash. Or could be used for buy backs. It doesn’t actually make much difference but if the topco cover was 0.32x on £17.5m rev then on £72m it should be >1.3x. All other things equal but should be higher as man fee etc is fixed cost within the revenues. |
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