Goldshield Share Discussion Threads

[mariannejane] 15/1/2007 06:17

DAILY CHART

[simon gordon] 30/11/2006 12:21

Just for the entertainment value this stock is a great story on how a family shareholding can stymie proper business growth.

I laughed harder when I saw they had enisted Tony Blair's former drug czar as Chairman. What have the Board been smoking? I suppose they appointed him for his hardcore business flair.

If the bank or private equity don't lend them the money for an MBO then the share price should drop below £2.00.

I would not lend them a penny for the Wellbeing Clinics in India.

They should pour the cashflow into buying drugs to sell through the existing distribution channel. KISS.

[simon gordon] 29/11/2006 09:51

Snippet from the Times:

'One City analyst expressed concern about Goldshield's management approach. "The company has the feel of a family company that just happens to be quoted," she said. "There is not a lot of management discipline."

She said that the company had conducted little research before embarking on its Indian venture, which she described as "extremely risky".'

[hendenne] 01/4/2006 10:01

well spotted wiganer..

[wiganer] 31/3/2006 13:26

Nicely timed director sell on 13th March...

[simon gordon] 31/3/2006 13:14

Still, if they do get charged and are found guilty they will have a nice Goldshield retirement home in India.

I still chuckle that GSD are building retirement homes.

I think the best thing for shareholders would be for GSD to be sold as they have solid profit lines that could be harnessed whilst stopping the madcap ventures like the retirement homes. Take out price £4.00 +

Good fortune!

[hendenne] 31/3/2006 13:04

Interesting to see that the interest had dropped from GSD... all now depends on the SFO... is this a recovery stock waiting to wilt some more before recovering?

Bad news today for the Patels who must now face April 7................

[wetdream] 15/1/2006 22:01

Who'd have thought an SFO enquiry would do wonders for the shareprice!

[olivepeel] 15/12/2005 18:53

manangement are focused - on a constantly changing market.

when the legal issue is out the way then ...

[simon gordon] 29/11/2005 10:16

Panmure Gordon cut GSD from buy to hold today with a £3.50 target price.

I laughed when I read they plan to go build retirement homes in India.

GSD management are not focused as can be seen by reading the history of the busines.

BPO and OAP homes are just the latest examples.

[kcprevail] 29/10/2005 05:35

400p target !

[simon gordon] 27/9/2005 13:20

LB - I have bought back into ERG and I am starting to dig on ETR.

Good fortune!

[linkblock] 27/9/2005 13:09

Let me know where you go S.

G x

[old giggleswickian] 26/9/2005 20:22

simon,
Your imput here has been appreciated.

Ian.

[simon gordon] 26/9/2005 16:06

I have sold my shares as when I did my research I understood that if they settled with the NHS the SFO case would probably be dropped. This is looking unlikely and the share is more of a coin-flip speculation even though the value is very tempting.

Good fortune!

[simon gordon] 19/9/2005 18:16

OP - does not appear positive added with the Times cover story. It just generates more uncertaintiy.

[olivepeel] 19/9/2005 09:46

simon - what is your take on the ned sale

[simon gordon] 13/9/2005 16:18

If a company does settle with the NHS, which Ranbaxy have, it does not mean they - more specifically the directors - escape prosecution by the SFO.

So the key points facing GSD are:

- If GSD settle with the NHS they could take a small hit to the bottom line - no problem.

- If the SFO go ahead with a prosecution, which is looking more likely, the directors could face prison if found guilty. If GSD directors go to trial they would have to resign or more likely sell GSD.

With the SFO spinnning to the Times it has to mean they are going to go to trial.

So it is the SFO who will have more of a bearing on the destiny of GSD than the NHS.

Trial expected 2007 if a final decision to proceed is taken.

So how will profit accrue to a shareholder:

- New board of directors.

- CEO decides to sell GSD to private equity = 9 x EBITDA 17m plus 14m cash on balance sheet = 167m = £4.50. 10 x EBITDA = £5.00.

The major downside risk is that the CEO becomes indecisive if the SFO trial happens. I presume they have worked out strategies to handle the possible outcomes.

[simon gordon] 12/9/2005 20:17

After that front cover 'banner' story in The Times I was expecting a fall but no we had some good buying.

It would be very profitable if the SFO case was settled quickly as it jars the nerves big time when a headline appears like that.

I will speak to GSD and seek some counsel as to what is cooking.

Hopefully nothing that will get us scalded!

Oh for a quick profit.....

[simon gordon] 12/9/2005 06:09

This looks nasty:

[simon gordon] 10/9/2005 14:43

First fall since mid-July. It is due a pull back.

[simon gordon] 06/9/2005 16:42

Some heavy duty buying today - very promising!

[simon gordon] 05/9/2005 18:31

Interesting post by JTCod from an old GSD thread:

26 Jun'03 - 10:31 - 57 of 69

As I read the results a couple of days ago, it was clear to me that Mr Patel is not a man who communicates with his shareholders in a candid manner.

When he looks back over the last 6 months in particular, I hope he feels that he would handle it differently a second time.

It was also clear to me that my appraisal of the company's 'predictable' cash flows was wrong. This business does not have the pricing power I thought it had.

I think Mark was absolutely right when he said it would be a slow turnaround for the company.

Trading in the USA is dire and rather than cut back, it should be closed IMO. The company is hemorrhaging in the USA and they are neither big enough or have deep enough pockets to cope with this problem. I have seen it before with far bigger companies than GSD. They simply do not have the muscle and if they bury their head in the sand, their bankers may make their minds up for them. Like watching a game of chess, sometimes the moves are easier to see when you are not in the thick of it.

I am not a short term player and I hate taking losses (This being just the 2nd in 7 and a half years) but I made the hard decision of selling on the day of the results. Whether that makes me a 'sloppy seller' Mark, only time will tell.

I must say that I do think the company's fortunes will eventually turn but I believe it would happen a lot faster if they took the hard decision to eject USA now and concentrate both money and effort in the area's they excel.

There may be a time to return to the USA in the future but to succeed the company needs a killer product to sell and a minimum free cash flow of £50m IMO.

Right now I see 20p EPS for 2004 pre amortisation but in the absence of good news that is currently 20p and falling.

At some time in the future, I may come back to the share because I still like much of what the company does and despite the reporting problems Mr Patel has admirable zest to grow the company and build something worthwhile. Before I do though, I will need to see change in the USA, have a greater margin of safety than today on price and also evaluate the new Chairman with regard to his candid approach to reporting. I need to trust what he says.

All IMHO
Regards and best wishes to the management and shareholders for the the future.
JT

[simon gordon] 03/9/2005 21:24

RNSM tipped in The Business:



It states RNSM have 7m of net debt.