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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldshield Grp | GSD | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 486.25 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 486.25 | 486.25 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 22/6/2007 13:45 by chuckie egg Nick, I agree with you assessment. For year to 31/3/06 GSD made approx £17M before exceptional cost, approx EPS 31p. For year to 31/3/07 GSD probably will make £13.5M before exceptional cost (ie legal fees), giving EPS 25p. Before today's announcements this co. deserved a low rating because - a) Investigation by Department of Health into price fixing. b) The Patel directors treating GSD like a private business. Both factors have now been resolved. Now it should be given a decent rating. Remember Alliance Boots was taken-over at a P/E ratio of 26. |
Posted at 22/6/2007 12:31 by nickcduk Simon,The net cash should be around 20m. If you scrub that from the market cap that leaves you with an enterprise value of 50m. They had EBTDA of about 12m if you assume second half was in line with the first and you knock off a few quid for interest. That puts the business on ebtda multiple of about 4. In terms of EPS the adjusted figure should come in at around 27p. That is calculated by assuming 14m Ebtda if you add back interest. A 30% tax charge. I doubt they will lose any money on Indian land investments. Land prices in India have risen very very sharply. If those assets are sold it adds more cash to the balance sheet. I would also guess the EBTDA figures above include losses from India so the situation could be even more promising. GSD have put aside 4m in legal defence costs and I would guess that should suffice especially now those directors will no longer be with the company. The pharma business deserves a decent rating and I really cannot see why 300p is an unreasonable amount to ask for considering the amount of cash on the balance sheet. |
Posted at 22/6/2007 12:17 by simon gordon Hi NickI think it will be difficult to disentangle the state of the balance sheet after the 'mad' investment in India - how much will they gain or lose on the purchase of land and any building works? Diluted EPS in 2006 was 10p giving a historic p/e of 20x. Are you expecting 30p in 2007? Will GSD pay for the court case legal expenses? This could run into millions. The only division with potential is the Pharma division but has been neglected for years. The nutrition division is in decline. Good fortune. |
Posted at 22/6/2007 12:03 by simon gordon Hi Nick,The only word to sum up this fiasco is Pathetic. I note that Rakesh Patel is to be the new CEO - he certainly went along with the 'mad' decision to invest in the Indian retirement homes. I would have no confidence in him - he has it all to prove!!!! The strategic review is a couple of paragraphs - this comapny is run at the whimsy of the Patel posse. They don't have a clue on how to relate with outside shareholders. I think they will have trouble finding high calibre people to join the company because of the nonsensical business culture of GSD. I think it will take years to gain any momentum in the business. There are more interesting shares than this piece of junk.... |
Posted at 19/4/2007 15:11 by nickcduk Its extremely cheap PP. There is plenty more to come for GSD. |
Posted at 31/3/2006 13:14 by simon gordon Still, if they do get charged and are found guilty they will have a nice Goldshield retirement home in India.I still chuckle that GSD are building retirement homes. I think the best thing for shareholders would be for GSD to be sold as they have solid profit lines that could be harnessed whilst stopping the madcap ventures like the retirement homes. Take out price £4.00 + Good fortune! |
Posted at 31/3/2006 13:04 by hendenne Interesting to see that the interest had dropped from GSD... all now depends on the SFO... is this a recovery stock waiting to wilt some more before recovering?Bad news today for the Patels who must now face April 7................ |
Posted at 13/9/2005 16:18 by simon gordon If a company does settle with the NHS, which Ranbaxy have, it does not mean they - more specifically the directors - escape prosecution by the SFO.So the key points facing GSD are: - If GSD settle with the NHS they could take a small hit to the bottom line - no problem. - If the SFO go ahead with a prosecution, which is looking more likely, the directors could face prison if found guilty. If GSD directors go to trial they would have to resign or more likely sell GSD. With the SFO spinnning to the Times it has to mean they are going to go to trial. So it is the SFO who will have more of a bearing on the destiny of GSD than the NHS. Trial expected 2007 if a final decision to proceed is taken. So how will profit accrue to a shareholder: - New board of directors. - CEO decides to sell GSD to private equity = 9 x EBITDA 17m plus 14m cash on balance sheet = 167m = £4.50. 10 x EBITDA = £5.00. The major downside risk is that the CEO becomes indecisive if the SFO trial happens. I presume they have worked out strategies to handle the possible outcomes. |
Posted at 02/9/2005 11:21 by simon gordon Digging deeper into GSD a main area of group weakness is the Direct To Consumer (DTC) for Health Care Products which are mainly nutritional supplements. As can be seen a continuous drop in turnover is ongoing: EU TURNOVER 2005 - 16m 2004 - 18m 2003 - 22.1m 2002 - 29.6m USA TURNOVER 2005 - 6.8m 2004 - 10.9m 2003 - 26.8m 2002 - 26.3m 2001 - 7.5m GSD bought companies in the States when it was apparent UK competition was heating up but the Ephedra ban badly hurt them. Analyst notes say they over paid for the American nutrition companies. GSD have recently changed the top management teams at the EU division in the hope of recharging top line growth. The USA division on the top line looks knackered - alas GSD do not show the bottom line for each division. |
Posted at 16/8/2005 18:38 by simon gordon William Ransom - RNSMSimilar'ish to GSD; it is valued: 03/06 T/O - 32m PBT - 3.9m EPS - 4.2 DPS - zilch P/E - 12.6 03/07 T/O - 38m PBT - 5m EPS - 4.5 DPS - zilch P/E - 11.8 Net debt - 1.9m Net cash inflow for 03/05 = 1.89m Market Cap. - 44.7m GSD - standing PBT of 16.4m. GSD - had net cash inflow for 03/05 = 19.36m GSD - has net cash 6m. GSD - market cap. 110m. Cheap as chips!!! |
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